Araştırma Makalesi
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Currency Crises and Humanitarian Funds: Welfare and Monetary Dynamics in Turkey

Yıl 2022, Cilt 7, Sayı 1, 77 - 88, 26.04.2022

Öz

The fiscal and institutional heritage of Turkey sets a narrow room for policy regulation to impose guarantees to currency competitiveness. The paper considers financial features, empirical inflation drivers, and novel monetary instruments in the recent economic chronology of Turkey; aiming to present an association between currency volatility and the humanitarian context of the EU-Turkey agreement. Specifically, the prevalence of informal economies, housing market transformations, and the accumulation of high-interest bearing private debt appear as influential policy variables within the current model for welfare provision. At the intersection of humanitarian funds and state-defined aims, it strikes as startegically important to preserve the real value of allocated funds from cash transfer programmes such as the ESSN.

Kaynakça

  • Akçay, O. C., Alper, C. E. & Özmucur, S. (2001) ‘Budget Deficit, Inflation and Debt Sustainability – Evidence from Turkey 1970-2000’, Retrieved from: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.194.7155
  • Arbaa, O. and Varon, E. (2019) ‘Turkish currency crisis - Spillover effects on European banks’, Borsa Istanbul Review, 19(4), 372-378.
  • Ari, A. & Cergibozan, R. (2018) ‘Currency crises in Turkey: An empirical assessment’, Research in International Business and Finance, 46, 281-293.
  • Aslaner, O., Ciplak, U., Kara, H. & Küçüksaraç, D. (2015) 'Reserve options mechanism: does it work as an automatic stabilizer?', Central Bank Review, 15(1), 1-18.
  • Balkan, B., Tok, E. O., Torun, H. & Tumen, S. (2018) 'Immigration, Housing Rents, and Residential Segregation: Evidence from Syrian Refugees in Turkey', IZA Institute of Labor Economics, IZA DP No. 11611.
  • Bayram, K., Abdullah, A. & Meera, A. K. (2017) ‘Identifying the optimal level of gold as a reserve asset using Black–Litterman model: The case for Malaysia, Turkey, KSA and Pakistan’, International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, 11(3), 334-356.
  • Çelik, R., Keskin, A. & Keskin, A. (2020) 'The Impact of Economic Growth, Unemployment and Inflation on Informal Employment in Turkey: an ARDL Bounds Test Approach', Journal of Social Policy Conferences, 80, 451-474.
  • Cetinoglu, T. (2019) '‘New’ humanitarianisms and programming: the encounter of Turkey and Europe with Syrian refugees', Conflict, Security & Development, 19(3), 289-294.
  • Cetinoglu, T. & Yilmaz, V. (2021) 'A contextual policy analysis of a cash programme in a humanitarian setting: the case of the Emergency Social Safety Net in Turkey', Disasters, 45(3), 604-626.
  • Cömert, H. and Yeldan, E. (2018) 'A tale of three crises in Turkey: 1994, 2001 and 2008–09', ERC-Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, no. 1809.
  • Del Carpio, X. V. and Wagner, M. (2015) ‘The Impact of Syrians refugees on the Turkish labour market’, Policy Research Working Paper 7402, World Bank Group, August
  • Eichengreen, B. & Hausmann, R. (1999) 'Exchange rates and financial fragility', NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper 7418
  • Erdem, N. (2019) 'The Effect of Syrian Refugees on Housing Rents in Southeast of Turkey', Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Municipal Engineer, Thomas Telford Ltd., 1-10.
  • Kahlayar, N.; Outtara, B. & Fethi, S. (2020) ‘The Impact of Financial Crises on the Informal Economy: The Turkish Case’, Athens Journal of Business & Economics, 6(2), 145-172.
  • Kara, M. & Ekinci, M. B. (2018) 'New Monetary Policy Frame and Tools of the Central Bank in Turkey', International Journal of Social Science Research, 7(1), 46-61.
  • Kara, A. H., Öğünç, F. & Sarikaya, Ç. (2017) 'Inflation Dynamics in Turkey: A Historical Accounting', CBT Research Notes in Economics, 2017-03, May 12th
  • Kilci, E. N. (2019) ‘Reserve Adequacy In Turkey: A Study On Comparison Of The Reserves With Imports And Short-Term External Debt’, Academic Review of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 12(4), 578-588.
  • Konuk, B. B. and Tümen, S. (2016) 'Immigration and Prices: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Syrian Refugees in Turkey', Journal of Population Economics, 29(3), 657-686.
  • Oba, B.; Assadi, D. & Kuscu, Z. K. (2019) 'Measuring the poor's wealth in Turkey', Cahiers du CEREN, 52, 77-92.
  • Orhangazi, Ö. and Yeldan, E. (2021) ‘The Re-making of the Turkish Crisis’, Development and Change, 52(3), 460-503.
  • Reinhart, C. M. & Rogoff, K. S. (2009) 'The Aftermath of Financial Crises', American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings, 99(2), 466–472.
  • Tanrikulu, F. (2020) 'The Political Economy of Migration and Integration: Effects of Immigrants on the Economy in Turkey', Journal of Immigrant & Refugee Studies, 1-14.
  • Taskinsoy, J. (2019a) ‘A Delicate Moment in Turkey’s Economic Transition: Can Turkey Survive Mounting Economic Problems without the IMF’s Bailout Package?’, Available at SSRN 3408520
  • Taskinsoy, J. (2019b) ‘Turkish Lira – A Fiat Currency that Resembles the Volatility of Cryptocurrencies: The Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Turkish Economy’, Research Gate, 1-26.
  • Tumen, S. (2016). ‘The economic impact of Syrian Refugees on host countries: Quasi-Experimental evidence from Turkey. American Economic Review, 106(5), 456-460.
  • Yilmaz (2019) ‘The Emerging Welfare Mix for Syrian Refugees in Turkey: The Interplay between Humanitarian Assistance Programmes and the Turkish Welfare System’, Journal of Social Policy, 48(4), 721-739.
  • Uysal, M. (2017) 'Financial stability and macroprudential policy in Turkey', BIS Papers No. 94.

Kur Krizleri ve İnsani Fonlar: Türkiye'de Refah ve Parasal Dinamikler

Yıl 2022, Cilt 7, Sayı 1, 77 - 88, 26.04.2022

Öz

Türkiye'nin mali ve kurumsal mirası, para biriminin rekabet edebilirliğine garantiler dayatmak için politika düzenlemesi için dar bir alan açmaktadır. Makale, Türkiye'nin son ekonomik kronolojisindeki finansal özellikleri, ampirik enflasyon itici güçlerini ve yeni parasal araçları ele alıyor; para birimi oynaklığı ile AB-Türkiye anlaşmasının insani bağlamı arasında bir ilişki sunmayı amaçlıyor. Spesifik olarak, kayıt dışı ekonomilerin yaygınlığı, konut piyasası dönüşümleri ve yüksek faiz getiren özel borç birikimi, mevcut refah sunumu modelinde etkili politika değişkenleri olarak görünmektedir. İnsani yardım fonları ile devlet tarafından tanımlanan amaçların kesiştiği noktada, Acil Sosyal Güvenlik Ağı (ESSN) gibi nakit transfer programlarından tahsis edilen fonların gerçek değerini korumak, stratejik olarak önemlidir

Kaynakça

  • Akçay, O. C., Alper, C. E. & Özmucur, S. (2001) ‘Budget Deficit, Inflation and Debt Sustainability – Evidence from Turkey 1970-2000’, Retrieved from: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.194.7155
  • Arbaa, O. and Varon, E. (2019) ‘Turkish currency crisis - Spillover effects on European banks’, Borsa Istanbul Review, 19(4), 372-378.
  • Ari, A. & Cergibozan, R. (2018) ‘Currency crises in Turkey: An empirical assessment’, Research in International Business and Finance, 46, 281-293.
  • Aslaner, O., Ciplak, U., Kara, H. & Küçüksaraç, D. (2015) 'Reserve options mechanism: does it work as an automatic stabilizer?', Central Bank Review, 15(1), 1-18.
  • Balkan, B., Tok, E. O., Torun, H. & Tumen, S. (2018) 'Immigration, Housing Rents, and Residential Segregation: Evidence from Syrian Refugees in Turkey', IZA Institute of Labor Economics, IZA DP No. 11611.
  • Bayram, K., Abdullah, A. & Meera, A. K. (2017) ‘Identifying the optimal level of gold as a reserve asset using Black–Litterman model: The case for Malaysia, Turkey, KSA and Pakistan’, International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, 11(3), 334-356.
  • Çelik, R., Keskin, A. & Keskin, A. (2020) 'The Impact of Economic Growth, Unemployment and Inflation on Informal Employment in Turkey: an ARDL Bounds Test Approach', Journal of Social Policy Conferences, 80, 451-474.
  • Cetinoglu, T. (2019) '‘New’ humanitarianisms and programming: the encounter of Turkey and Europe with Syrian refugees', Conflict, Security & Development, 19(3), 289-294.
  • Cetinoglu, T. & Yilmaz, V. (2021) 'A contextual policy analysis of a cash programme in a humanitarian setting: the case of the Emergency Social Safety Net in Turkey', Disasters, 45(3), 604-626.
  • Cömert, H. and Yeldan, E. (2018) 'A tale of three crises in Turkey: 1994, 2001 and 2008–09', ERC-Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, no. 1809.
  • Del Carpio, X. V. and Wagner, M. (2015) ‘The Impact of Syrians refugees on the Turkish labour market’, Policy Research Working Paper 7402, World Bank Group, August
  • Eichengreen, B. & Hausmann, R. (1999) 'Exchange rates and financial fragility', NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper 7418
  • Erdem, N. (2019) 'The Effect of Syrian Refugees on Housing Rents in Southeast of Turkey', Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Municipal Engineer, Thomas Telford Ltd., 1-10.
  • Kahlayar, N.; Outtara, B. & Fethi, S. (2020) ‘The Impact of Financial Crises on the Informal Economy: The Turkish Case’, Athens Journal of Business & Economics, 6(2), 145-172.
  • Kara, M. & Ekinci, M. B. (2018) 'New Monetary Policy Frame and Tools of the Central Bank in Turkey', International Journal of Social Science Research, 7(1), 46-61.
  • Kara, A. H., Öğünç, F. & Sarikaya, Ç. (2017) 'Inflation Dynamics in Turkey: A Historical Accounting', CBT Research Notes in Economics, 2017-03, May 12th
  • Kilci, E. N. (2019) ‘Reserve Adequacy In Turkey: A Study On Comparison Of The Reserves With Imports And Short-Term External Debt’, Academic Review of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 12(4), 578-588.
  • Konuk, B. B. and Tümen, S. (2016) 'Immigration and Prices: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Syrian Refugees in Turkey', Journal of Population Economics, 29(3), 657-686.
  • Oba, B.; Assadi, D. & Kuscu, Z. K. (2019) 'Measuring the poor's wealth in Turkey', Cahiers du CEREN, 52, 77-92.
  • Orhangazi, Ö. and Yeldan, E. (2021) ‘The Re-making of the Turkish Crisis’, Development and Change, 52(3), 460-503.
  • Reinhart, C. M. & Rogoff, K. S. (2009) 'The Aftermath of Financial Crises', American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings, 99(2), 466–472.
  • Tanrikulu, F. (2020) 'The Political Economy of Migration and Integration: Effects of Immigrants on the Economy in Turkey', Journal of Immigrant & Refugee Studies, 1-14.
  • Taskinsoy, J. (2019a) ‘A Delicate Moment in Turkey’s Economic Transition: Can Turkey Survive Mounting Economic Problems without the IMF’s Bailout Package?’, Available at SSRN 3408520
  • Taskinsoy, J. (2019b) ‘Turkish Lira – A Fiat Currency that Resembles the Volatility of Cryptocurrencies: The Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Turkish Economy’, Research Gate, 1-26.
  • Tumen, S. (2016). ‘The economic impact of Syrian Refugees on host countries: Quasi-Experimental evidence from Turkey. American Economic Review, 106(5), 456-460.
  • Yilmaz (2019) ‘The Emerging Welfare Mix for Syrian Refugees in Turkey: The Interplay between Humanitarian Assistance Programmes and the Turkish Welfare System’, Journal of Social Policy, 48(4), 721-739.
  • Uysal, M. (2017) 'Financial stability and macroprudential policy in Turkey', BIS Papers No. 94.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Sosyal
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Sebestyen GERGELY> (Sorumlu Yazar)
Bir kuruma bağlı değildir
0001-2526-3232-3248
Germany


Adam OBRYCKİ>
Bir kuruma bağlı değildir
0001-2526-3232-3247
Poland

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 26 Nisan 2022
Yayımlanma Tarihi 26 Nisan 2022
Başvuru Tarihi 4 Nisan 2022
Kabul Tarihi 25 Nisan 2022
Yayınlandığı Sayı Yıl 2022, Cilt 7, Sayı 1

Kaynak Göster

Bibtex @araştırma makalesi { tursbad1098656, journal = {Türk Sosyal Bilimler Araştırmaları Dergisi}, issn = {2548-009X}, eissn = {2548-0103}, address = {}, publisher = {Hasan Kalyoncu Üniversitesi}, year = {2022}, volume = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {77 - 88}, title = {Currency Crises and Humanitarian Funds: Welfare and Monetary Dynamics in Turkey}, key = {cite}, author = {Gergely, Sebestyen and Obrycki, Adam} }
APA Gergely, S. & Obrycki, A. (2022). Currency Crises and Humanitarian Funds: Welfare and Monetary Dynamics in Turkey . Türk Sosyal Bilimler Araştırmaları Dergisi , 7 (1) , 77-88 . Retrieved from http://tursbad.hku.edu.tr/tr/pub/issue/69571/1098656
MLA Gergely, S. , Obrycki, A. "Currency Crises and Humanitarian Funds: Welfare and Monetary Dynamics in Turkey" . Türk Sosyal Bilimler Araştırmaları Dergisi 7 (2022 ): 77-88 <http://tursbad.hku.edu.tr/tr/pub/issue/69571/1098656>
Chicago Gergely, S. , Obrycki, A. "Currency Crises and Humanitarian Funds: Welfare and Monetary Dynamics in Turkey". Türk Sosyal Bilimler Araştırmaları Dergisi 7 (2022 ): 77-88
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - Currency Crises and Humanitarian Funds: Welfare and Monetary Dynamics in Turkey AU - Sebestyen Gergely , Adam Obrycki Y1 - 2022 PY - 2022 N1 - DO - T2 - Türk Sosyal Bilimler Araştırmaları Dergisi JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 77 EP - 88 VL - 7 IS - 1 SN - 2548-009X-2548-0103 M3 - UR - Y2 - 2022 ER -
EndNote %0 Türk Sosyal Bilimler Araştırmaları Dergisi Currency Crises and Humanitarian Funds: Welfare and Monetary Dynamics in Turkey %A Sebestyen Gergely , Adam Obrycki %T Currency Crises and Humanitarian Funds: Welfare and Monetary Dynamics in Turkey %D 2022 %J Türk Sosyal Bilimler Araştırmaları Dergisi %P 2548-009X-2548-0103 %V 7 %N 1 %R %U
ISNAD Gergely, Sebestyen , Obrycki, Adam . "Currency Crises and Humanitarian Funds: Welfare and Monetary Dynamics in Turkey". Türk Sosyal Bilimler Araştırmaları Dergisi 7 / 1 (Nisan 2022): 77-88 .
AMA Gergely S. , Obrycki A. Currency Crises and Humanitarian Funds: Welfare and Monetary Dynamics in Turkey. JOTSSR. 2022; 7(1): 77-88.
Vancouver Gergely S. , Obrycki A. Currency Crises and Humanitarian Funds: Welfare and Monetary Dynamics in Turkey. Türk Sosyal Bilimler Araştırmaları Dergisi. 2022; 7(1): 77-88.
IEEE S. Gergely ve A. Obrycki , "Currency Crises and Humanitarian Funds: Welfare and Monetary Dynamics in Turkey", Türk Sosyal Bilimler Araştırmaları Dergisi, c. 7, sayı. 1, ss. 77-88, Nis. 2022