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ÜÇÜZ AÇIK ENDEKSİ VE TÜRK DÜNYASININ MAKROEKONOMİK PERFORMANSI

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 2, 58 - 76, 17.10.2023

Ömer Akçayır

Öz

Çalışmada, bütçe ve tasarruf dengesinin cari denge üzerindeki etkisini açıklayan üçüz açık hipotezine yeni bir endeks ve derecelendirme yaklaşımı öneren üçüz açık endeksi perspektifinde, Türk devletlerinin makroekonomik performansları karşılaştırmalı olarak ele alınmıştır. Endeks sonuçlarına göre, Azerbaycan yüksek performans grubunda yer alırken, Kırgızistan ve Türkmenistan yüksek risk grubunda yer almaktadır. Türkiye, Kazakistan ve Özbekistan ise sürdürülebilir risk gurubundadır. Türk Devletlerinin gelişmiş (GE), gelişmekte olan (GOE) ve Orta Doğu ve Asya ülkelerine (ASIA) yakınsayıp yakınsamadığı 1994-2021 yıllarını kapsayan 28 yıllık gözlem ile Ranjbar vd. (2018) Fourier-Sollis birim kök testleri ile analiz edilmiştir. Üçüz açık endeksi açısından sadece gelişmiş ülkeler birbirlerine yakınsarken, diğer ülke grupları uzun dönemde birbirlerine yakınsamamaktadır. Ayrıca Kazakistan ASIA ülkelerine yakınsarken, Türkiye ve Azerbaycan’ın tüm ülke gruplarına yakınsama eğiliminde olduğu tespit edilmiştir. GE ülkelerine en çok yakınsayan ülke Özbekistan’dır. 68 ülke örnekleminde en riskliden en yüksek performansa doğru Türk devletleri Kırgızistan, Türkmenistan, Türkiye, Kazakistan, Özbekistan ve Azerbaycan sırasıyla ifade edilebilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Üçüz Açık Endeksi Makroekonomik Performans Sürdürülebilirlik Fourier Birim Kök Testleri Yakınsama

Kaynakça

  • Akçayır, Ö. (2022). A new index and rating approach to the triplet deficits hypothesis Chapter 1. Contemporary Research in Economics, Duvar Publishing, Ekim, 5-22. https://www.platanuskitap.com/Webkontrol/uploads/Fck/ekonomi_ekim.pdf#page=6
  • Akinci, M., Akıncı, Yüce, G., ve Yılmaz, Ö. (2016). Dördüz açıklar: Ütopya mı yoksa gerçek mi?, Paradoks Ekonomi Sosyoloji ve Politika Dergisi, 12 (1), Nisan, 22-47.
  • Altintas, H., and Taban, S. (2011). Twin deficit problem and Feldstein-Horioka hypothesis in Turkey: ARDL bound testing approach and investigation of causality. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics ,74: 30-45.
  • Altunöz, U. (2018). Cari açık, bütçe açığı ve yatırım-tasarruf açığı bağlamında Türkiye’nin üçüz açık analizi. Maliye Dergisi, 175, 115-139.
  • Apergis, N., Konstantinos, P., Katrakilidis, and Nicholas M. Tabakis. (2000). Current account deficit sustainability: The case of Greece. Applied Economics Letters 7(9), 599-603.
  • Baharumshah, A.Z., Lau, E., and Fountas, S. (2003). On the sustainability of current account deficits: evidence from four ASEAN countries." Journal of Asian economics, 14(3), 465-487. Balan, F. (2016). BRIC ve MINT ekonomilerinde üçüz açık hipotezinin ampirik analizi. Journal of Life Economics, 3(1), 57-70.
  • Bolat, S., Değirmen, S., ve Şengönül, A. (2014). Does triple deficits have (UN) stable causality for the EU members? Evidence from bootstrap-corrected causality tests. Procedia Economics and Finance, 16, 603-612.
  • Chinn, Menzie D., and Eswar S. Prasad. (2000). Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: An empirical exploration. NBER Working Paper, No: 7581.
  • Chortareas, Georgios E., Kapetanios, G., and Uctum, M. (2004). An investigation of current account solvency in Latin America using non linear nonstationarity tests. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 8(1), 1–19.
  • Çiğdem, G. and Ülgen, G. (2017). Is the inadequacy of national savings the reason of current account deficit? Empirical analysis in Fragile Eight. The Empirical Economics Letters, 16(4), 297-310.
  • Darrat, Ali F. (1988). Have large budget deficits caused rising trade deficits?. Southern Economic Journal, 879-887.
  • Dulger, F., and Ozdemir, Z.A. (2005). Current account sustainability in seven developed countries. Journal of Economic and Social Research, 7(2).
  • Fidrmuc, J. (2003). The Feldstein–Horioka puzzle and twin deficits in selected countries. Economics of Planning, 36(2), 135-152.
  • Fountas, S. and Wu J. (1999) Are the US current account deficits really sustainable?. International Economic Journal, 13(3), 51-58.
  • Garg, B. and Prabheesh, K.P. (2021) Testing the intertemporal sustainability of current account in the presence of endogenous structural breaks: Evidence from the top deficit countries. Economic Modelling, 97, 365-379. DOI.org (Crossref), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.04.007.
  • Garton, P., Sedgwick, M., and Shirodkar, S. (2011). Australia's current account deficit in a global imbalances context. Economic Round-up, 1, 29-50.
  • Greenidge, K., Holder, C., and Moore, A. (2011). Current account deficit sustainability: The case of Barbados. Applied Economics, 43(8), 973-984.
  • Hakkio, C.S. (1995). The US current account: the other deficit. Economic Review-Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 80, 11-11.
  • Hassan, AFM K. (2013). Is Malaysia's current account balance sustainable? Evidence from inter-temporal solvency model. International Journal of Business and Society, 14(2), 207.
  • Holmes, Mark J., Panagiotidis, T., and Sharma, A. (2011). The sustainability of India's current account. Applied Economics, 43(2), 219-229.
  • IMF, (2022) International Monetary Fund Data. 11 Ağustos, https://www.imf.org/en/Data
  • Evren, İ., and Kizilgöl, Ö.A. (2016). Türkiye ekonomisinde üçüz açik/triple deficit in Turkish economy. Ege Akademik Bakış, 16(3), 425-441.
  • Miomir, J., Fabris, N., and Ješić, M. (2018). Intertemporal current account sustainability in the presence of structural breaks. Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci: časopis za ekonomsku teoriju i praksu, 36(2), 413-442.
  • Kalyoncu, H., and Ozturk. I. (2010). Sustainability of current account for Latin America and Caribbean countries., Applied Economics Letters, 17(8), 781-785.
  • Kamacı, A., and Şahin Kara, S. (2019). Üçüz açık hipotezi: 1974-2015 yılları arası Türkiye örneği. Uluslararası Afro-Avrasya Araştırmaları Dergisi, 4(8), 143-154.
  • Kaygısız, Durgun, A., Göze, D., and Kösekahyaoğlu, L. (2016). Test of ‘twin deficit hypothesis’ for Turkey: An analysis for 2001-2014 period. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 9(4), 211-228.
  • Lau, E., and Cheong Tang, T. (2009). Twin deficits in Cambodia: Are there reasons for concern? An empirical study. Monash University, Department of Economics, Disscussion Papers, 11.09: 1-9.
  • Magoti, E., Mabula, S., and Sende, B.N. (2020). Triple deficit hypothesis: A panel ARDL and Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality for East African countries. African Journal of Economic Review, 8(1), 144-161.
  • Matsubayashi, Y. (2005). Are US current account deficits unsustainable?: Testing for the private and government intertemporal budget constraints. Japan and the World Economy, 17(2), 223-237.
  • Nargeleçekenler, M., and Giray, F. (2013). Assessing the twin deficits hypothesis in selected OECD countries: an empirical investigation. Business and Economics Research Journal, 4(4), 1-23.
  • OECD, (1987) Economic Outlook. No 41 – June.
  • Ogus, A., and Sohrabji, N. (2008). On the optimality and sustainability of Turkey’s current account. Empirical Economics, 35(3), 543-568.
  • Özdemir, D., Buzdağlı, Ö., Emsen, Ö.S., ve Çelik, A.A. (2014). Geçiş ekonomilerinde üçüz açık hipotezinin geçerliliği (validity of triple deficit hypothesis in transition economies). In International Conference On Eurasian Economies.
  • Ranjbar, O., Chang, T., Elmi, Z.M., and Lee, C.C. (2018). A new unit root test against asymmetric ESTAR nonlinearity with smooth breaks. Iranian Economic Review, 22(1), 51-62.
  • Rosensweig, J.A., and Ellis, W.T. (1993). Fiscal policy and trade adjustment: are the deficits really twins?. Economic Inquiry, 31(4), 580-594.
  • Schwert, G.W. (1989). Tests for unit roots: A monte carlo investigation. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 7, 147-160.
  • Seyidoğlu, H. (2009). Uluslararası iktisat teori ve politika uygulama. İstanbul: Güzem Can Yayınları: 100-101.
  • Şen, H., and Kaya, A. (2016). Are the twin or triple deficits hypotheses applicable to post-communist countries?, BOFIT Discussion Papers, No. 3/2016, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT), Helsinki, https://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:fi:bof-201602251031
  • Shastri, S., Giri, A.K., and Geetilaxmi, M. (2017) Assessing the triple deficit hypothesis for major South Asian countries: A panel data analysis." International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7(4): 292-299.
  • Singh, T. (2019) Intertemporal sustainability of current account imbalances: New evidence from the OECD countries. Economic Notes: Review of Banking, Finance and Monetary Economics, 48(2), e12129.
  • Sissoko, Y., and Sohrabji, N. (2012). Current account sustainability of ECOWAS countries. African Finance Journal, 14(2), 1-22.
  • Sollis, R. (2009). A simple unit root test against asymmetric STAR nonlinearity with an application to real exchange rates in nordic countries. Economic modelling, 26(1), 118-125.
  • Sugözü, İ.H. ve Nurkamılova, U. (2022). İkiz açık hipotezi: Kırgızistan ekonomisi üzerine ampirik bir çalışma. Reforma, 3(95), 6-17. Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/reforma/issue/73116/1192831
  • Tang, T.C. (2014). Fiscal deficit, trade deficit, and financial account deficit: Triple deficits hypothesis with the US experience. Trading economics, 09 Eylül 2022, https://tr.tradingeconomics.com/
  • Wu, J., Fountas, S., and Chen, S.L. (1996). Testing for the sustainability of the current account deficit in two industrial countries. Economics Letters, 52(2), 193-198. Yalçıner, K. Uluslararası finansman. Detay Yayıncılık, 2012. Yeniwati, Y. (2019). Triple deficit hypothesis: has it happened in Indonesia?. 2nd Padang International Conference on Education, Economics, Business and Accounting (PICEEBA-2 2018). Atlantis Press, Yol, M.A. (2009). Testing the sustainability of current account deficits in developing economies: evidence from Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia. The Journal of Developing Areas, 177-197.

TRIPLE DEFICITS INDEX AND MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF THE TURKIC WORLD

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 2, 58 - 76, 17.10.2023

Ömer Akçayır

Öz

In the study, the macroeconomic performances of the Turkish states are discussed comparatively in the perspective of the triple deficit index (TDI), which proposes a new index and rating approach to the triple deficit hypothesis that explains the effect of the budget balance and savings balance on the current account balance. According to the results of the TDI, Azerbaijan is in the high-performance group, while Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan are in the high-risk group. Turkey, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are in the sustainable risk group. Whether Turkic States converge to developed (GE), developing (GOE) and Middle East and Asian countries (ASIA) analyzed with Fourier-Sollis unit root tests of Ranjbar et al. (2018) for 28 years of observation covering 1994-2021. In terms of the TDI, only developed countries converge, while other country groups do not converge in the long run. It has also been determined that while Kazakhstan converges to ASIA countries, Turkey and Azerbaijan tend to converge to all country groups. The country that converges most with the GE countries is Uzbekistan. In the sample of 68 countries, the Turkic states can be expressed in order from the riskiest to the highest performance: Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Turkey, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan

Anahtar Kelimeler

Triple Deficits Index Macroeconomic Performance Sustainability Fourier Unit Root Tests Convergence Analysis

Kaynakça

  • Akçayır, Ö. (2022). A new index and rating approach to the triplet deficits hypothesis Chapter 1. Contemporary Research in Economics, Duvar Publishing, Ekim, 5-22. https://www.platanuskitap.com/Webkontrol/uploads/Fck/ekonomi_ekim.pdf#page=6
  • Akinci, M., Akıncı, Yüce, G., ve Yılmaz, Ö. (2016). Dördüz açıklar: Ütopya mı yoksa gerçek mi?, Paradoks Ekonomi Sosyoloji ve Politika Dergisi, 12 (1), Nisan, 22-47.
  • Altintas, H., and Taban, S. (2011). Twin deficit problem and Feldstein-Horioka hypothesis in Turkey: ARDL bound testing approach and investigation of causality. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics ,74: 30-45.
  • Altunöz, U. (2018). Cari açık, bütçe açığı ve yatırım-tasarruf açığı bağlamında Türkiye’nin üçüz açık analizi. Maliye Dergisi, 175, 115-139.
  • Apergis, N., Konstantinos, P., Katrakilidis, and Nicholas M. Tabakis. (2000). Current account deficit sustainability: The case of Greece. Applied Economics Letters 7(9), 599-603.
  • Baharumshah, A.Z., Lau, E., and Fountas, S. (2003). On the sustainability of current account deficits: evidence from four ASEAN countries." Journal of Asian economics, 14(3), 465-487. Balan, F. (2016). BRIC ve MINT ekonomilerinde üçüz açık hipotezinin ampirik analizi. Journal of Life Economics, 3(1), 57-70.
  • Bolat, S., Değirmen, S., ve Şengönül, A. (2014). Does triple deficits have (UN) stable causality for the EU members? Evidence from bootstrap-corrected causality tests. Procedia Economics and Finance, 16, 603-612.
  • Chinn, Menzie D., and Eswar S. Prasad. (2000). Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: An empirical exploration. NBER Working Paper, No: 7581.
  • Chortareas, Georgios E., Kapetanios, G., and Uctum, M. (2004). An investigation of current account solvency in Latin America using non linear nonstationarity tests. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 8(1), 1–19.
  • Çiğdem, G. and Ülgen, G. (2017). Is the inadequacy of national savings the reason of current account deficit? Empirical analysis in Fragile Eight. The Empirical Economics Letters, 16(4), 297-310.
  • Darrat, Ali F. (1988). Have large budget deficits caused rising trade deficits?. Southern Economic Journal, 879-887.
  • Dulger, F., and Ozdemir, Z.A. (2005). Current account sustainability in seven developed countries. Journal of Economic and Social Research, 7(2).
  • Fidrmuc, J. (2003). The Feldstein–Horioka puzzle and twin deficits in selected countries. Economics of Planning, 36(2), 135-152.
  • Fountas, S. and Wu J. (1999) Are the US current account deficits really sustainable?. International Economic Journal, 13(3), 51-58.
  • Garg, B. and Prabheesh, K.P. (2021) Testing the intertemporal sustainability of current account in the presence of endogenous structural breaks: Evidence from the top deficit countries. Economic Modelling, 97, 365-379. DOI.org (Crossref), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.04.007.
  • Garton, P., Sedgwick, M., and Shirodkar, S. (2011). Australia's current account deficit in a global imbalances context. Economic Round-up, 1, 29-50.
  • Greenidge, K., Holder, C., and Moore, A. (2011). Current account deficit sustainability: The case of Barbados. Applied Economics, 43(8), 973-984.
  • Hakkio, C.S. (1995). The US current account: the other deficit. Economic Review-Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 80, 11-11.
  • Hassan, AFM K. (2013). Is Malaysia's current account balance sustainable? Evidence from inter-temporal solvency model. International Journal of Business and Society, 14(2), 207.
  • Holmes, Mark J., Panagiotidis, T., and Sharma, A. (2011). The sustainability of India's current account. Applied Economics, 43(2), 219-229.
  • IMF, (2022) International Monetary Fund Data. 11 Ağustos, https://www.imf.org/en/Data
  • Evren, İ., and Kizilgöl, Ö.A. (2016). Türkiye ekonomisinde üçüz açik/triple deficit in Turkish economy. Ege Akademik Bakış, 16(3), 425-441.
  • Miomir, J., Fabris, N., and Ješić, M. (2018). Intertemporal current account sustainability in the presence of structural breaks. Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci: časopis za ekonomsku teoriju i praksu, 36(2), 413-442.
  • Kalyoncu, H., and Ozturk. I. (2010). Sustainability of current account for Latin America and Caribbean countries., Applied Economics Letters, 17(8), 781-785.
  • Kamacı, A., and Şahin Kara, S. (2019). Üçüz açık hipotezi: 1974-2015 yılları arası Türkiye örneği. Uluslararası Afro-Avrasya Araştırmaları Dergisi, 4(8), 143-154.
  • Kaygısız, Durgun, A., Göze, D., and Kösekahyaoğlu, L. (2016). Test of ‘twin deficit hypothesis’ for Turkey: An analysis for 2001-2014 period. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 9(4), 211-228.
  • Lau, E., and Cheong Tang, T. (2009). Twin deficits in Cambodia: Are there reasons for concern? An empirical study. Monash University, Department of Economics, Disscussion Papers, 11.09: 1-9.
  • Magoti, E., Mabula, S., and Sende, B.N. (2020). Triple deficit hypothesis: A panel ARDL and Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality for East African countries. African Journal of Economic Review, 8(1), 144-161.
  • Matsubayashi, Y. (2005). Are US current account deficits unsustainable?: Testing for the private and government intertemporal budget constraints. Japan and the World Economy, 17(2), 223-237.
  • Nargeleçekenler, M., and Giray, F. (2013). Assessing the twin deficits hypothesis in selected OECD countries: an empirical investigation. Business and Economics Research Journal, 4(4), 1-23.
  • OECD, (1987) Economic Outlook. No 41 – June.
  • Ogus, A., and Sohrabji, N. (2008). On the optimality and sustainability of Turkey’s current account. Empirical Economics, 35(3), 543-568.
  • Özdemir, D., Buzdağlı, Ö., Emsen, Ö.S., ve Çelik, A.A. (2014). Geçiş ekonomilerinde üçüz açık hipotezinin geçerliliği (validity of triple deficit hypothesis in transition economies). In International Conference On Eurasian Economies.
  • Ranjbar, O., Chang, T., Elmi, Z.M., and Lee, C.C. (2018). A new unit root test against asymmetric ESTAR nonlinearity with smooth breaks. Iranian Economic Review, 22(1), 51-62.
  • Rosensweig, J.A., and Ellis, W.T. (1993). Fiscal policy and trade adjustment: are the deficits really twins?. Economic Inquiry, 31(4), 580-594.
  • Schwert, G.W. (1989). Tests for unit roots: A monte carlo investigation. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 7, 147-160.
  • Seyidoğlu, H. (2009). Uluslararası iktisat teori ve politika uygulama. İstanbul: Güzem Can Yayınları: 100-101.
  • Şen, H., and Kaya, A. (2016). Are the twin or triple deficits hypotheses applicable to post-communist countries?, BOFIT Discussion Papers, No. 3/2016, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT), Helsinki, https://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:fi:bof-201602251031
  • Shastri, S., Giri, A.K., and Geetilaxmi, M. (2017) Assessing the triple deficit hypothesis for major South Asian countries: A panel data analysis." International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7(4): 292-299.
  • Singh, T. (2019) Intertemporal sustainability of current account imbalances: New evidence from the OECD countries. Economic Notes: Review of Banking, Finance and Monetary Economics, 48(2), e12129.
  • Sissoko, Y., and Sohrabji, N. (2012). Current account sustainability of ECOWAS countries. African Finance Journal, 14(2), 1-22.
  • Sollis, R. (2009). A simple unit root test against asymmetric STAR nonlinearity with an application to real exchange rates in nordic countries. Economic modelling, 26(1), 118-125.
  • Sugözü, İ.H. ve Nurkamılova, U. (2022). İkiz açık hipotezi: Kırgızistan ekonomisi üzerine ampirik bir çalışma. Reforma, 3(95), 6-17. Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/reforma/issue/73116/1192831
  • Tang, T.C. (2014). Fiscal deficit, trade deficit, and financial account deficit: Triple deficits hypothesis with the US experience. Trading economics, 09 Eylül 2022, https://tr.tradingeconomics.com/
  • Wu, J., Fountas, S., and Chen, S.L. (1996). Testing for the sustainability of the current account deficit in two industrial countries. Economics Letters, 52(2), 193-198. Yalçıner, K. Uluslararası finansman. Detay Yayıncılık, 2012. Yeniwati, Y. (2019). Triple deficit hypothesis: has it happened in Indonesia?. 2nd Padang International Conference on Education, Economics, Business and Accounting (PICEEBA-2 2018). Atlantis Press, Yol, M.A. (2009). Testing the sustainability of current account deficits in developing economies: evidence from Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia. The Journal of Developing Areas, 177-197.
Toplam 45 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Maliye Politikası, Para Politikası, Uluslararası Finans, Makro İktisat (Diğer)
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Ömer Akçayır 0000-0002-1645-5312

Yayımlanma Tarihi 17 Ekim 2023
Gönderilme Tarihi 24 Haziran 2023
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023Cilt: 8 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Akçayır, Ö. (2023). ÜÇÜZ AÇIK ENDEKSİ VE TÜRK DÜNYASININ MAKROEKONOMİK PERFORMANSI. Türk Sosyal Bilimler Araştırmaları Dergisi, 8(2), 58-76.