ÜÇÜZ AÇIK ENDEKSİ VE TÜRK DÜNYASININ MAKROEKONOMİK PERFORMANSI

Ömer Akçayır

TR EN

ÜÇÜZ AÇIK ENDEKSİ VE TÜRK DÜNYASININ MAKROEKONOMİK PERFORMANSI

Öz

Çalışmada, bütçe ve tasarruf dengesinin cari denge üzerindeki etkisini açıklayan üçüz açık hipotezine yeni bir endeks ve derecelendirme yaklaşımı öneren üçüz açık endeksi perspektifinde, Türk devletlerinin makroekonomik performansları karşılaştırmalı olarak ele alınmıştır. Endeks sonuçlarına göre, Azerbaycan yüksek performans grubunda yer alırken, Kırgızistan ve Türkmenistan yüksek risk grubunda yer almaktadır. Türkiye, Kazakistan ve Özbekistan ise sürdürülebilir risk gurubundadır. Türk Devletlerinin gelişmiş (GE), gelişmekte olan (GOE) ve Orta Doğu ve Asya ülkelerine (ASIA) yakınsayıp yakınsamadığı 1994-2021 yıllarını kapsayan 28 yıllık gözlem ile Ranjbar vd. (2018) Fourier-Sollis birim kök testleri ile analiz edilmiştir. Üçüz açık endeksi açısından sadece gelişmiş ülkeler birbirlerine yakınsarken, diğer ülke grupları uzun dönemde birbirlerine yakınsamamaktadır. Ayrıca Kazakistan ASIA ülkelerine yakınsarken, Türkiye ve Azerbaycan’ın tüm ülke gruplarına yakınsama eğiliminde olduğu tespit edilmiştir. GE ülkelerine en çok yakınsayan ülke Özbekistan’dır. 68 ülke örnekleminde en riskliden en yüksek performansa doğru Türk devletleri Kırgızistan, Türkmenistan, Türkiye, Kazakistan, Özbekistan ve Azerbaycan sırasıyla ifade edilebilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

TRIPLE DEFICITS INDEX AND MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF THE TURKIC WORLD

Abstract

In the study, the macroeconomic performances of the Turkish states are discussed comparatively in the perspective of the triple deficit index (TDI), which proposes a new index and rating approach to the triple deficit hypothesis that explains the effect of the budget balance and savings balance on the current account balance. According to the results of the TDI, Azerbaijan is in the high-performance group, while Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan are in the high-risk group. Turkey, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are in the sustainable risk group. Whether Turkic States converge to developed (GE), developing (GOE) and Middle East and Asian countries (ASIA) analyzed with Fourier-Sollis unit root tests of Ranjbar et al. (2018) for 28 years of observation covering 1994-2021. In terms of the TDI, only developed countries converge, while other country groups do not converge in the long run. It has also been determined that while Kazakhstan converges to ASIA countries, Turkey and Azerbaijan tend to converge to all country groups. The country that converges most with the GE countries is Uzbekistan. In the sample of 68 countries, the Turkic states can be expressed in order from the riskiest to the highest performance: Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Turkey, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan

Keywords

References

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Details

Primary Language

Turkish

Subjects

Policy of Treasury , Monetary Policy , International Finance , Macroeconomics (Other)

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Ömer Akçayır ^*
0000-0002-1645-5312
Türkiye

Publication Date

October 17, 2023

Submission Date

June 24, 2023

Acceptance Date

September 26, 2023

Published in Issue

Year 2023 Volume: 8 Number: 2

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA97LH84RU

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Akçayır, Ö. (2023). ÜÇÜZ AÇIK ENDEKSİ VE TÜRK DÜNYASININ MAKROEKONOMİK PERFORMANSI. Türk Sosyal Bilimler Araştırmaları Dergisi, 8(2), 58-76. https://izlik.org/JA97LH84RU