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The Impact of the Second Karabakh War on the Armenian Economy and Financial Markets in the Framework of Armenia's Foreign Relations

Yıl 2023, Sayı: 47, 119 - 158, 25.07.2023

Öz

Thirty years after the First Karabakh War, the events that developed with Armenia's attack on the city of Tovuz in Azerbaijan started the Second Karabakh War in September 2020. While the first war was an ethnic-based conflict that emerged in the Soviet geography after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the second war was an ethnic conflict and a proxy war based on political economy, apart from the issues of reclaiming the lands that Azerbaijan had lost military control. After Turkey's geopolitical problems with Russia, it has sought to diversify its energy imports and replace Russian gas with Azerbaijani gas to reduce its dependence on Russia. The Tovuz attack, an essential point in delivering Armenian-Azerbaijani gas to Turkey, occurred in this ongoing process. In this primary layer, the Second Karabakh War was a proxy war based on the economy and politics between Russia and Turkey. With the war, Iran supported Armenia, and Israel supported Azerbaijan. In the secondary layer, it was a geopolitically based proxy war between Israel and Iran at a weaker level. Since the founding element of the war was the economic-political plane, this study examines the economic-political dimension of the war for Armenia. In this context, this study aims to analyze the effects of the Second Karabakh War on the Armenian economy and financial markets within the framework of Armenia's relations with Russia and the Western world. According to the results, during the process that turned into a war, the Armenian economy contracted with the increasing public expenditures during the war, and economic and financial fragilities increased. After the armistice, Turkey's internal economic-political and growing confidence in solving the problem provided capital inflows from Russia and the West, supporting economic growth and financial markets. However, the Armenian economy has been susceptible to the geopolitical and military tensions that have risen during the post-war period. On the other hand, Western and Russian capital are energizing the Armenian economy in alternative ways according to the changing geopolitical and alliance system conditions. Russia's relative influence in this dynamic is more significant. At a higher level of analysis, the main reason for this is Armenia's varying relations with Russia and the Western alliance. As Russia's positive impact on the Armenian economy decreased in the post-war period, this effect was replaced with the positive impact of Western capital on the Armenian economy.

Kaynakça

  • “Inflation Reports 2020”. Central Bank of Armenia, 2020. Accessed 12.06.2023. https://www.cba.am/en/SitePages/mp2020_report.aspx
  • “The Outcome of the Second Karabakh War: Confrontation Between the Diaspora and the Armenian Government”. Center of Analysis of International Relations (Air Center), 2021, accessed 23.02.2023. https://aircenter.az/en/single/the-outcome-of-the-second-karabakh-war-confrontation-between-the-diaspora-and-the-armenian-government-697
  • “Turkey’s role in the Nagorno Karabakh war: a potential resource for peace”. Caucasus Edition: Journal of Conflict Transformation, July 15, 2013. Accessed 23.02.2023. https://caucasusedition.net/turkeys-role-in-the-nagorno-karabakh-war-a-potential-resource-for-peace/
  • Abilov, Shamkhal and Ismayil Isayev. “The Consequences of the Nagorno–Karabakh War for Azerbaijan and the Undeniable Reality of Khojaly Massacre: A View from Azerbaijan”. Polish Political Science Yearbook, 45 (2016): 291-303. 10.15804/ppsy2016022.
  • Aida, Farrokhpour. “The Impacts of the Second War of Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict (2020) on the Identity Consciousness of Iranian Azerbaijanis.” Master of Science (M.S.), Middle East Technical University, 2022.
  • Aydabirian, Robert, Jirair Libaridian, and Taline Papazian. “The Karabakh War of 2020 and Armenia’s Future Foreign and Security Policies”. Armenia Peace Initiative (API), July 2021. Accessed 23.02.2023. https://armeniapeace.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Armenia_Foreign_and_Security_Policies.pdf
  • Bagirov, Okhan. “Economic Implications of Second Karabakh War for Armenia – OpEd”. Eurasia Review, April 18, 2021. Accessed 09.03.2023. https://www.eurasiareview.com/18042021-economic-implications-of-second-karabakh-war-for-armenia-oped
  • Balcilar, Mehmet, Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, Huseyin Ozdemir, and Muhammad Shahbaz. “The renewable energy consumption and growth in the G-7 countries: Evidence from historical decomposition method”. Renewable Energy, 126 (2018): 594-604.
  • Bivainis, Andrius. “Multi-dimensional assessment of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War”. Security and Defence Quarterly 38, no.2 (2022): 51-61. doi: 10.35467/sdq/146180.
  • Burbidge, John and Alan Harrison. “An historical decomposition of the great depression to determine the role of Money”. Journal of Monetary Economics, Issue 1 (1985): 45-54.
  • Chitadze, Nika. "Economic Factors of the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict". Review of Armenian Studies, Issue 33 (2016): 95-112.
  • Czachor, Rafał. “The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict as a Specific Example of Asymmetric Conflict”. Journal of Science of the Gen. Tadeusz Kosciuszko Military Academy of Land Forces, 185 (2017): 17-31. 10.5604/01.3001.0010.5119.
  • Dickey, David A. and Wayne A. Fuller. “Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root”. Journal of the American Statistical Association 74, 366a (1979): 427–431.
  • Du Mouchel, William and Fanny O'Brien. “Integrating a Robust Option Into a Multiple Regression Computing Environment”. Computer Science and Statistics: Proceedings of the 21st Symposium on the Interface (1989), American Statistical Association.
  • Holland, P.W. and R.E. Welsch. “Robust Regression Using Iteratively Reweighted Least-Squares”. Communications in Statistics: Theory and Methods 6, 9 (1977): 813-827.
  • Ibadoghlu, Gubad. “The Political Economy of the Second Karabakh War”. SSRN, October 8, 2021, accessed 23.02.2023. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3939263
  • İbrahimov, Mirza. “The Military and Economic Consequences of the Second Karabakh War for Armenia”. Center of Analysis of International Relations (Air Center), 2021. Accessed 20.03.2023. https://aircenter.az/uploads/files/military%20and%20economic%20consequences.pdf
  • Idan, Avinoam and Brenda Shaffer. “Israel’s Role in the Second Armenia-Azerbaijan War”. Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 2021, accessed 23.02.2023. https://www.fdd.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/The-Karabakh-Gambit_IsraelRole-1.pdf
  • Iskandarov, Khayal and Piotr Gawliczek. “The second Karabakh war as a war of new generation”. Journal of Scientific Papers “Social Development and Security”, Vol. 11, No. 2 (2021). ISSN 2522-9842.
  • Jović-Lazić, Ana. “The Second Armed Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh – Causes and Implications.” In Convergence and Confrontation: The Balkans and the Middle East in the 21st Century, ed. Slobodan Janković, 211-240. Belgrade: Institute of International Politics and Economics, 2021. ISBN 978-86-7067-293-2.
  • Kasapoglu, Can. “ANALYSIS – Five key military takeaways from Azerbaijani-Armenian war”. Anadolu Agency, October 30, 2020, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/analysis/analysis-five-key-military-takeaways-from-azerbaijani-armenian-war/2024430
  • Kocaoğlu, Fatih. “Savaşın ekonomi politiği üzerine Sümer dünya sistemi örneği”. Unpublished Master Thesis, Gazi Üniversitesi, Ankara, 2014.
  • Köse, Güçlü and Keisuke Wakizaka. “The Historical Dynamics of the Second Karabakh War and the Shift in Turkey’s Policy: The Effects of the Syrian Civil War”. Karadeniz Araştırmaları XIX, 74 (2022): 311-327.
  • Miskovic, Damjan Krnjevic. “Geopolitics and the Second Karabakh War”. Caucasus Strategic Perspectives 1, Issue 2 (Winter 2020). https://cspjournal.az/uploads/files/Vol_1_Is_2_Winter2020/(3)%20Damjan%20Krnjevic%20Miskovic.pdf
  • Nesirova, Aynur. “Economic Results of The Karabakh War: Plundering in The Territories of Azerbaijan During the Occupation Period”. Uluslararası Yönetim Akademisi Dergisi 5, 2 (2022): 257-266. DOI: 10.33712/mana.1094314.
  • Philip, Andrew. “Lessons from the Nagorno-Karabakh 2020 Conflict”. Center for Army Lessons Learned, August 2021, accessed 12.06.2023. https://api.army.mil/e2/c/downloads/2023/01/31/693ac148/21-655-nagorno-karabakh-2020-conflict-catalog-aug-21-public.pdf
  • Shaffer, Brenda. “Israel’s Role in the Second Armenia-Azerbaijan War and Its Implications for the Future”. The Central Asia Analyst, September 9, 2022, accessed 23.02.2023. https://www.cacianalyst.org/resources/pdf/220912Shaffer.pdf
  • Sims, Christopher. “Macroeconomics and Reality”. Econometrica 48, no. 1 (1980): 1-48.
  • Street, James O., Raymond J. Carroll, and David Ruppert. “A Note on Computing Robust Regression Estimates via Iteratively Reweighted Least Squares”. The American Statistician 42, 2 (1988): 152-154.
  • Yavuz, M. Hakan and Vasif Huseynov. “The Second Karabakh War: Russia vs. Turkey?”, Middle East Policy, 27 (2020): 103-118.
  • https://en.investing.com/currencies/rub-amd
  • https://www.cba.am/en/SitePages/statexternalsector.aspx
  • https://www.cba.am/en/SitePages/statmonetaryfinancial.aspx
  • https://www.crisisgroup.org/content/nagorno-karabakh-conflict-visual-explainer
  • https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-amd
  • https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-rub
  • https://www.investing.com/indices/msci-world
  • https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/

Ermenistan’ın Dış İlişkileri Çerçevesinde İkinci Karabağ Savaşının Ermeni Ekonomisi Ve Finans Piyasalarına Etkisi

Yıl 2023, Sayı: 47, 119 - 158, 25.07.2023

Öz

Birinci Karabağ Savaşı'ndan otuz yıl sonra Ermenistan'ın Azerbaycan'da Tovuz şehrine saldırmasıyla gelişen olaylar Eylül 2020'de İkinci Karabağ Savaşı'nı başlatmıştır. Birinci savaş, Sovyetler Birliği'nin dağılmasından sonra Sovyet coğrafyasında ortaya çıkan etnik temelli bir çatışma iken, ikinci savaş Azerbaycan'ın askeri kontrolünü kaybettiği toprakların geri alınması meseleleri dışında etnik bir çatışma ve politik ekonomiye dayalı bir vekalet savaşı olmuştur. Türkiye, Rusya ile jeopolitik sorunlarının ardından Rusya'ya bağımlılığını azaltmak için enerji ithalatını çeşitlendirmeye ve Rus gazını Azerbaycan gazıyla ikâme etmeye çalışmıştır. Ermenistan’ın Azerbaycan gazının Türkiye'ye ulaştırılmasında önemli bir nokta olan Tovuza saldırısı, devam eden süreçte gerçekleşmiştir. Birincil katmanda İkinci Karabağ Savaşı, Rusya ile Türkiye arasındaki ekonomi ve siyasete dayalı bir vekalet savaşıdır. Savaşla birlikte İran Ermenistan'ı, İsrail Azerbaycan'ı desteklemiştir. İkinci savaş ikincil katmanda, İsrail ile İran arasında daha zayıf düzeyde jeopolitik temelli bir vekalet savaşı olmuştur. Savaşın kurucu unsuru ekonomik-politik düzlem olduğundan, bu çalışma Ermenistan için savaşın ekonomik-politik boyutunu incelemektedir. Bu bağlamda bu çalışma, Ermenistan'ın Rusya ve Batı dünyası ile ilişkileri çerçevesinde İkinci Karabağ Savaşı'nın Ermenistan ekonomisi ve finans piyasaları üzerindeki etkilerini analiz etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre savaşa dönüşen süreçte ve savaş sırasında artan kamu harcamaları ile Ermeni ekonomisi daralmış, ekonomik ve mali kırılganlıklar artmıştır. Ateşkes sonrası Türkiye’nin de sorunun çözümüne ekonomi-politik olarak dâhili ile artan güven ortamının Rusya ve batı kaynaklı sağladığı sermaye girişleri iktisadi büyümeyi ve finansal piyasaları desteklemiştir. Ancak Ermeni ekonomisi, savaş sonrası dönemde yükselen jeopolitik ve askeri gerilimlere karşı duyarlı olmuştur. Öte yandan Batı ve Rus sermayesi, değişen jeopolitik ve ittifak sistemi koşullarına göre alternatif yollarla Ermeni ekonomisini desteklemektedir. Rusya'nın bu süreçteki göreceli etkisi daha önemlidir. Daha yüksek bir analiz düzeyinde, bunun temel nedeni Ermenistan'ın Rusya ve Batı ittifakı ile değişen ilişkileridir. Savaş sonrası dönemde Rusya'nın Ermeni ekonomisi üzerindeki olumlu etkisi azaldıkça, bu etkinin yerini alan Batı sermayesinin Ermeni ekonomisi üzerindeki olumlu etkisi artmıştır.

Kaynakça

  • “Inflation Reports 2020”. Central Bank of Armenia, 2020. Accessed 12.06.2023. https://www.cba.am/en/SitePages/mp2020_report.aspx
  • “The Outcome of the Second Karabakh War: Confrontation Between the Diaspora and the Armenian Government”. Center of Analysis of International Relations (Air Center), 2021, accessed 23.02.2023. https://aircenter.az/en/single/the-outcome-of-the-second-karabakh-war-confrontation-between-the-diaspora-and-the-armenian-government-697
  • “Turkey’s role in the Nagorno Karabakh war: a potential resource for peace”. Caucasus Edition: Journal of Conflict Transformation, July 15, 2013. Accessed 23.02.2023. https://caucasusedition.net/turkeys-role-in-the-nagorno-karabakh-war-a-potential-resource-for-peace/
  • Abilov, Shamkhal and Ismayil Isayev. “The Consequences of the Nagorno–Karabakh War for Azerbaijan and the Undeniable Reality of Khojaly Massacre: A View from Azerbaijan”. Polish Political Science Yearbook, 45 (2016): 291-303. 10.15804/ppsy2016022.
  • Aida, Farrokhpour. “The Impacts of the Second War of Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict (2020) on the Identity Consciousness of Iranian Azerbaijanis.” Master of Science (M.S.), Middle East Technical University, 2022.
  • Aydabirian, Robert, Jirair Libaridian, and Taline Papazian. “The Karabakh War of 2020 and Armenia’s Future Foreign and Security Policies”. Armenia Peace Initiative (API), July 2021. Accessed 23.02.2023. https://armeniapeace.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Armenia_Foreign_and_Security_Policies.pdf
  • Bagirov, Okhan. “Economic Implications of Second Karabakh War for Armenia – OpEd”. Eurasia Review, April 18, 2021. Accessed 09.03.2023. https://www.eurasiareview.com/18042021-economic-implications-of-second-karabakh-war-for-armenia-oped
  • Balcilar, Mehmet, Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, Huseyin Ozdemir, and Muhammad Shahbaz. “The renewable energy consumption and growth in the G-7 countries: Evidence from historical decomposition method”. Renewable Energy, 126 (2018): 594-604.
  • Bivainis, Andrius. “Multi-dimensional assessment of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War”. Security and Defence Quarterly 38, no.2 (2022): 51-61. doi: 10.35467/sdq/146180.
  • Burbidge, John and Alan Harrison. “An historical decomposition of the great depression to determine the role of Money”. Journal of Monetary Economics, Issue 1 (1985): 45-54.
  • Chitadze, Nika. "Economic Factors of the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict". Review of Armenian Studies, Issue 33 (2016): 95-112.
  • Czachor, Rafał. “The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict as a Specific Example of Asymmetric Conflict”. Journal of Science of the Gen. Tadeusz Kosciuszko Military Academy of Land Forces, 185 (2017): 17-31. 10.5604/01.3001.0010.5119.
  • Dickey, David A. and Wayne A. Fuller. “Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root”. Journal of the American Statistical Association 74, 366a (1979): 427–431.
  • Du Mouchel, William and Fanny O'Brien. “Integrating a Robust Option Into a Multiple Regression Computing Environment”. Computer Science and Statistics: Proceedings of the 21st Symposium on the Interface (1989), American Statistical Association.
  • Holland, P.W. and R.E. Welsch. “Robust Regression Using Iteratively Reweighted Least-Squares”. Communications in Statistics: Theory and Methods 6, 9 (1977): 813-827.
  • Ibadoghlu, Gubad. “The Political Economy of the Second Karabakh War”. SSRN, October 8, 2021, accessed 23.02.2023. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3939263
  • İbrahimov, Mirza. “The Military and Economic Consequences of the Second Karabakh War for Armenia”. Center of Analysis of International Relations (Air Center), 2021. Accessed 20.03.2023. https://aircenter.az/uploads/files/military%20and%20economic%20consequences.pdf
  • Idan, Avinoam and Brenda Shaffer. “Israel’s Role in the Second Armenia-Azerbaijan War”. Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 2021, accessed 23.02.2023. https://www.fdd.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/The-Karabakh-Gambit_IsraelRole-1.pdf
  • Iskandarov, Khayal and Piotr Gawliczek. “The second Karabakh war as a war of new generation”. Journal of Scientific Papers “Social Development and Security”, Vol. 11, No. 2 (2021). ISSN 2522-9842.
  • Jović-Lazić, Ana. “The Second Armed Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh – Causes and Implications.” In Convergence and Confrontation: The Balkans and the Middle East in the 21st Century, ed. Slobodan Janković, 211-240. Belgrade: Institute of International Politics and Economics, 2021. ISBN 978-86-7067-293-2.
  • Kasapoglu, Can. “ANALYSIS – Five key military takeaways from Azerbaijani-Armenian war”. Anadolu Agency, October 30, 2020, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/analysis/analysis-five-key-military-takeaways-from-azerbaijani-armenian-war/2024430
  • Kocaoğlu, Fatih. “Savaşın ekonomi politiği üzerine Sümer dünya sistemi örneği”. Unpublished Master Thesis, Gazi Üniversitesi, Ankara, 2014.
  • Köse, Güçlü and Keisuke Wakizaka. “The Historical Dynamics of the Second Karabakh War and the Shift in Turkey’s Policy: The Effects of the Syrian Civil War”. Karadeniz Araştırmaları XIX, 74 (2022): 311-327.
  • Miskovic, Damjan Krnjevic. “Geopolitics and the Second Karabakh War”. Caucasus Strategic Perspectives 1, Issue 2 (Winter 2020). https://cspjournal.az/uploads/files/Vol_1_Is_2_Winter2020/(3)%20Damjan%20Krnjevic%20Miskovic.pdf
  • Nesirova, Aynur. “Economic Results of The Karabakh War: Plundering in The Territories of Azerbaijan During the Occupation Period”. Uluslararası Yönetim Akademisi Dergisi 5, 2 (2022): 257-266. DOI: 10.33712/mana.1094314.
  • Philip, Andrew. “Lessons from the Nagorno-Karabakh 2020 Conflict”. Center for Army Lessons Learned, August 2021, accessed 12.06.2023. https://api.army.mil/e2/c/downloads/2023/01/31/693ac148/21-655-nagorno-karabakh-2020-conflict-catalog-aug-21-public.pdf
  • Shaffer, Brenda. “Israel’s Role in the Second Armenia-Azerbaijan War and Its Implications for the Future”. The Central Asia Analyst, September 9, 2022, accessed 23.02.2023. https://www.cacianalyst.org/resources/pdf/220912Shaffer.pdf
  • Sims, Christopher. “Macroeconomics and Reality”. Econometrica 48, no. 1 (1980): 1-48.
  • Street, James O., Raymond J. Carroll, and David Ruppert. “A Note on Computing Robust Regression Estimates via Iteratively Reweighted Least Squares”. The American Statistician 42, 2 (1988): 152-154.
  • Yavuz, M. Hakan and Vasif Huseynov. “The Second Karabakh War: Russia vs. Turkey?”, Middle East Policy, 27 (2020): 103-118.
  • https://en.investing.com/currencies/rub-amd
  • https://www.cba.am/en/SitePages/statexternalsector.aspx
  • https://www.cba.am/en/SitePages/statmonetaryfinancial.aspx
  • https://www.crisisgroup.org/content/nagorno-karabakh-conflict-visual-explainer
  • https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-amd
  • https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-rub
  • https://www.investing.com/indices/msci-world
  • https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/
Toplam 38 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Siyaset Bilimi
Bölüm Research Article
Yazarlar

Fatih Kocaoğlu 0000-0003-4661-8888

Mehmet Kuzu 0000-0001-5354-4368

Yayımlanma Tarihi 25 Temmuz 2023
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023 Sayı: 47

Kaynak Göster

Chicago Kocaoğlu, Fatih, ve Mehmet Kuzu. “The Impact of the Second Karabakh War on the Armenian Economy and Financial Markets in the Framework of Armenia’s Foreign Relations”. Review of Armenian Studies, sy. 47 (Temmuz 2023): 119-58.