Araştırma Makalesi
Türkiye Rezerv Yeterliliği: Rezervlerin İthalat Ve Kısa Vadeli Dış Borçlarla Karşılaştırılması Üzerine Bir Analiz
Öz
Ülke
ekonomisinin finansal gücünün bir göstergesi olan ve uluslararası yatırımcılar
tarafından önemle dikkate alınan uluslararası rezervlerdeki değişimler, finansal
istikrar açısından büyük öneme sahiptir ve akademik literatürde yaygın şekilde
çalışılmaktadır. Ülkelerin rezerv yeterliliğinin hesaplanmasında, Uluslararası
Para Fonu (IMF) tarafından, uluslararası rezervleri, yıllık ithalatın %25’i
oranında belirtilen optimal rezerv seviyesi ve net uluslararası rezervleri,
kısa vadeli dış borç toplamıyla karşılaştırmak şeklinde iki geleneksel yaklaşım
kullanılmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, 2011:Ç3-2018:Ç4 döneminde Türkiye’de
uluslararası rezervlerin yeterliliğini, Enders and Jones (2016) tarafından
geliştirilen Fourier Granger nedensellik testini kullanarak araştırmaktır.
Çalışma sonuçlarına göre, ilk yaklaşıma göre rezervler yeteliyken, ikinci
yaklaşım dikkate alındığında rezervlerin yeterli olmadığı görülmektedir.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Kaynakça
- Bernard, K. M. (2011). International Reserve Adequacy in Central America. IMF Working Paper Series, No: 144. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2011/wp11144.pdf
- Becker, R., Enders, W. &Lee, J. (2006). A Stationarity Test in the Presence of an Unknown Number of Smooth Breaks, Journal of Time Series Analysis, 3(5): 381-409.
- Calvo, A. G., Izquierdo, A. & Rudy, L. (2012). Optimal Holding of International Reserves: Self-Insurance Against Sudden Stop, NBER Working Papers, No: 18219. https://www.nber.org/papers/w18219
- CBRT (2019). Electronic Data Delivery System, https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/index.php?
- Csávás, C. & Csom-Bíró, G. (2017). Indicators Used for the Assessment of the Reserve Adequacy of Emerging and Developing Countries-International Trends in the Mirror of Theories, Financial and Economic Review, 16(1), 5-45.
- Davis, J. S., Crowley, D. & Morris, M. (2018). Reserve Adequacy Explains Emerging-Market Sensitivity to U.S. Monetary Policy, Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, https://www.dallasfed.org/~/media/documents/research/eclett/2018/el1809.pdf
- ECB (2018). Economic Bulletin, Issue 8. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/focus/2018/html/ecb.ebbox201808_01.en.html
- Egilmez, M. (2017). Merkez Bankası Rezervleri Yeterli mi?, Kendime Yazılar, 10 Nisan 2017, http://www.mahfiegilmez.com/2017/04/merkez-bankas-rezervleri-yeterli-mi.html
- Enders, W. & Jones, P. (2016). Grain prices, oil prices and multiple smooth breaks in a VAR, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 20(4), 399-419.
- Eren, B. (2017). Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Rezerv Talebini Etkileyen Faktörler ve Rezerv Yeterliliği, Uzmanlık Yeterlilik Tezi. Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası. http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/4da1ac52-bbb4-4cef-a37b-84a1b14a026a/Bekir+Uzmanlık+Tezi-23.10.2017.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-4da1ac52-bbb4-4cef-a37b-84a1b14a026a-m3fBagm
- Fischer, S. (2001). Opening Remarks, IMF/World Bank International Reserves: Policy Issues Forum. https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/28/04/53/sp042801
- Garcia, P. & Soto, C. (2004). Large Hoarding of International Reserves: Are They Worth It?, Central Bank of Chile Working Paper, No: 299, Central Bank of Chile. https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/6360181.pdf
- IMF (1993). International Monetary Fund: Balance of Payments Manual. https://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/bop/bopman.pdf
- IMF (2000). Debt and Reserve-Related Indicators of External Vulnerability. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Policy-Papers/Issues/2016/12/31/Debt-and-Reserve-Related-Indicators-of-External-Vulnerability-PP84
- IMF (2001). Reserve adequacy in Emerging Market Economies, IMF Working Papers, WP/01/43, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2001/wp01143.pdf
- IMF (2005). Guidelines for Foreign Exchange Reserve Management: Accompanying Document and Case Studies. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Manuals-Guides/Issues/2016/12/30/Guidelines-for-Foreign-Exchange-Reserve-Management-Accompanying-Document-and-Case-Studies-17343
- IMF (2011). Assessing Reserve Adequacy. https://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2011/021411b.pdf
- Kilci, E. N. (2019). Analysis of the Causality Relationship between Brent Crude Oil Prices and Energy Import in Turkey Under Structural Breaks, Business and Economics Research Journal, 10(4), 777-788.
- Movchan, V. (2002). Criteria for International Reserves’ Adequacy: What Level of Reserves Does Ukraine Need? Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting, 11.
- Mwase, N. (2012). How much should I hold? Reserve Adequacy in Emerging Markets and Small Islands. IMF Working Paper Series, No: 205. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/31/How-much-should-I-hold-Reserve-Adequacy-in-Emerging-Markets-and-Small-Islands-26191
- Park, D. & Estrada, G. B. (2009). Are Developing Asia's Foreign Exchange Reserves Excessive? An Empirical Examination. Asian Development Bank, Economics Working Paper Series, No: 170. https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/28389/economics-wp170.pdf
- Shcherbakov, S. G. (2002). Foreign Reserves Adequacy: Case of China, Prepared for the Fifteenth Meeting of the IMF Committee on Balance of Payment Statistics, Canberra, Australia,
- TCMB (2001). Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası Kanunu.
- TCMB (2011). Merkez Bankalarında Rezerv ve Risk Yönetimi, http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/4925cf22-00ff-415e-84ea-04d861c1315e/11-7.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-4925cf22-00ff-415e-84ea-04d861c1315e-m3fB7Ju
- Yaman, B. (2003). Uluslararası Rezervler, Türkiye İçin Rezerv Yeterliliği ve Optimum Rezerv Seviyesi Uygulaması, Uzmanlık Yeterlilik Tezi. Ankara: Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası. http://www3.tcmb.gov.tr/kutuphane/TURKCE/tezler/bulentyaman.pdf
- Tsong, C.C., Lee, C.F., Tsai, L.J., Hu, T.C. (2016). The Fourier Approximation and Testing for the Null of Cointegration, Empirical Economics, 51(3), 1085-1113.
- Wijnholds, J. Onno de Beaufort ve Kapteyn, Arend (2001), Reserve Adequacy in Emerging Market Economies, IMF Working Paper, No: 143.
- Yilanci, V. (2017). Analyzing the relationship between Oil Prices and Economic Growth: A Fourier Approach, Econometrics and Statistics, 27 (2), 51-67.
Reserve Adequacy in Turkey: A Study on Comparison of The Reserves with Imports and Short-Term External Debt
Öz
The
changes in the international reserves of a country, which reflect the financial
power of an economy and considered significantly by international investors,
are of great importance in terms of financial stability and are taken into
consideration increasingly in the academic literature. Two of the traditional criteria
used by International Money Fund to assess reserve adequacy is to compare the
international reserve level of a country with the optimal reserve amount, which
represents %25 of the annual imports and to compare net international reserve
level with shorterm external debt. The objective of this study is to
investigate the international reserve adequacy in Turkey over the period of
2011:Q3-2018:Q4 based on this approaches by employing Fourier Granger causality
test. The findings of the analysis indicate that while the reserves are
adequate in Turkey according to the first approach, the reserves seem
inadequate when taken into account the second approach in the relevant period.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Kaynakça
- Bernard, K. M. (2011). International Reserve Adequacy in Central America. IMF Working Paper Series, No: 144. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2011/wp11144.pdf
- Becker, R., Enders, W. &Lee, J. (2006). A Stationarity Test in the Presence of an Unknown Number of Smooth Breaks, Journal of Time Series Analysis, 3(5): 381-409.
- Calvo, A. G., Izquierdo, A. & Rudy, L. (2012). Optimal Holding of International Reserves: Self-Insurance Against Sudden Stop, NBER Working Papers, No: 18219. https://www.nber.org/papers/w18219
- CBRT (2019). Electronic Data Delivery System, https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/index.php?
- Csávás, C. & Csom-Bíró, G. (2017). Indicators Used for the Assessment of the Reserve Adequacy of Emerging and Developing Countries-International Trends in the Mirror of Theories, Financial and Economic Review, 16(1), 5-45.
- Davis, J. S., Crowley, D. & Morris, M. (2018). Reserve Adequacy Explains Emerging-Market Sensitivity to U.S. Monetary Policy, Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, https://www.dallasfed.org/~/media/documents/research/eclett/2018/el1809.pdf
- ECB (2018). Economic Bulletin, Issue 8. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/focus/2018/html/ecb.ebbox201808_01.en.html
- Egilmez, M. (2017). Merkez Bankası Rezervleri Yeterli mi?, Kendime Yazılar, 10 Nisan 2017, http://www.mahfiegilmez.com/2017/04/merkez-bankas-rezervleri-yeterli-mi.html
- Enders, W. & Jones, P. (2016). Grain prices, oil prices and multiple smooth breaks in a VAR, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 20(4), 399-419.
- Eren, B. (2017). Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Rezerv Talebini Etkileyen Faktörler ve Rezerv Yeterliliği, Uzmanlık Yeterlilik Tezi. Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası. http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/4da1ac52-bbb4-4cef-a37b-84a1b14a026a/Bekir+Uzmanlık+Tezi-23.10.2017.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-4da1ac52-bbb4-4cef-a37b-84a1b14a026a-m3fBagm
- Fischer, S. (2001). Opening Remarks, IMF/World Bank International Reserves: Policy Issues Forum. https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/28/04/53/sp042801
- Garcia, P. & Soto, C. (2004). Large Hoarding of International Reserves: Are They Worth It?, Central Bank of Chile Working Paper, No: 299, Central Bank of Chile. https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/6360181.pdf
- IMF (1993). International Monetary Fund: Balance of Payments Manual. https://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/bop/bopman.pdf
- IMF (2000). Debt and Reserve-Related Indicators of External Vulnerability. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Policy-Papers/Issues/2016/12/31/Debt-and-Reserve-Related-Indicators-of-External-Vulnerability-PP84
- IMF (2001). Reserve adequacy in Emerging Market Economies, IMF Working Papers, WP/01/43, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2001/wp01143.pdf
- IMF (2005). Guidelines for Foreign Exchange Reserve Management: Accompanying Document and Case Studies. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Manuals-Guides/Issues/2016/12/30/Guidelines-for-Foreign-Exchange-Reserve-Management-Accompanying-Document-and-Case-Studies-17343
- IMF (2011). Assessing Reserve Adequacy. https://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2011/021411b.pdf
- Kilci, E. N. (2019). Analysis of the Causality Relationship between Brent Crude Oil Prices and Energy Import in Turkey Under Structural Breaks, Business and Economics Research Journal, 10(4), 777-788.
- Movchan, V. (2002). Criteria for International Reserves’ Adequacy: What Level of Reserves Does Ukraine Need? Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting, 11.
- Mwase, N. (2012). How much should I hold? Reserve Adequacy in Emerging Markets and Small Islands. IMF Working Paper Series, No: 205. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/31/How-much-should-I-hold-Reserve-Adequacy-in-Emerging-Markets-and-Small-Islands-26191
- Park, D. & Estrada, G. B. (2009). Are Developing Asia's Foreign Exchange Reserves Excessive? An Empirical Examination. Asian Development Bank, Economics Working Paper Series, No: 170. https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/28389/economics-wp170.pdf
- Shcherbakov, S. G. (2002). Foreign Reserves Adequacy: Case of China, Prepared for the Fifteenth Meeting of the IMF Committee on Balance of Payment Statistics, Canberra, Australia,
- TCMB (2001). Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası Kanunu.
- TCMB (2011). Merkez Bankalarında Rezerv ve Risk Yönetimi, http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/4925cf22-00ff-415e-84ea-04d861c1315e/11-7.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-4925cf22-00ff-415e-84ea-04d861c1315e-m3fB7Ju
- Yaman, B. (2003). Uluslararası Rezervler, Türkiye İçin Rezerv Yeterliliği ve Optimum Rezerv Seviyesi Uygulaması, Uzmanlık Yeterlilik Tezi. Ankara: Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası. http://www3.tcmb.gov.tr/kutuphane/TURKCE/tezler/bulentyaman.pdf
- Tsong, C.C., Lee, C.F., Tsai, L.J., Hu, T.C. (2016). The Fourier Approximation and Testing for the Null of Cointegration, Empirical Economics, 51(3), 1085-1113.
- Wijnholds, J. Onno de Beaufort ve Kapteyn, Arend (2001), Reserve Adequacy in Emerging Market Economies, IMF Working Paper, No: 143.
- Yilanci, V. (2017). Analyzing the relationship between Oil Prices and Economic Growth: A Fourier Approach, Econometrics and Statistics, 27 (2), 51-67.
Toplam 28 adet kaynakça vardır.
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | İngilizce |
|---|---|
| Bölüm | Makaleler |
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 18 Ekim 2019 |
| Gönderilme Tarihi | 19 Haziran 2019 |
| Kabul Tarihi | 27 Eylül 2019 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2019 Cilt: 12 Sayı: 4 |
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