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Application of Quantity Theory of Money in Cryptocurrencies: Example of Bitcoin and the Impact of Covid-19

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 71 Sayı: 1, 81 - 102, 16.07.2021

Öz

This study tests the validity of the quantity theory for cryptocurrencies. They have been on the agenda of financial markets in recent years, and they are perceived as a new type of money. Considering the historical development of money, the emergence of cryptocurrencies is similar to the evolution of traditional currency. Therefore, great deficiency exists in the in the existing literature because money rules are not tested for cryptocurrencies, which have been referred to as the money of the future. Within the scope of this study, releases and the use of cryptocurrencies were comparatively discussed with other types of money, and Fisher’s quantity theory model was tested for crypto coins. Using the market value and amount of Bitcoin, the time series analysis is performed with monthly frequency data covering a period from August 2010 to April 2021. As a result of the analysis, it is understood that a linear relationship prevails between the amount and value of Bitcoin. The main reason for this situation can be explained by cryptocurrency mining activities that use the blockchain method. the econometric analysis shows that the Covid-19 outbreak has strengthened the positive relationship between Bitcoin amount and market value. To understand the results of the analysis and fill the gap in the literature, issues such as money supply, emission and seigniorage income for cryptocurrencies are discussed and the operating processes for each are explained. This study contributes to the literature by showing that the Fisher Quantity Theory is not valid for cryptocurrencies.

Kaynakça

  • Aksoy, E. E. (2018). Bitcoin paradan sonraki en büyük icat (3.bs). İstanbul: Abaküs. google scholar
  • Antonopoulos, A. M. (2015). Mastering bitcoin. Sebastopol: O’Reilly Media, Inc. google scholar
  • Armknecht F., Karame G.O., Mandal A., Youssef F., Zenner E. (2015) In: Conti M., Schunter M., Askoxylakis I. (Ed.), Trust and Trustworthy Computing. Lecture Notes in Computer Science: Vol. 9229. Ripple: Overview and Outlook. içinde (s.163-180). Cham, Springer. https://doi. org/10.1007/978-3-319-22846-4_10 google scholar
  • Ay, İ. C. (2021). Air pollution, health and economic growth: A panel data analysis for countries with the highest co2 emission. Akademik Hassasiyetler, 8(15), 269-288. google scholar
  • Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1979). A simple test for heteroscedasticity and random coefficient variation. Econometrica, 47(5), 1287-1294. https://doi.org/10.2307/1911963 google scholar
  • Brunton, F. (2019). Digital cash: The unknown history of the anarchists, utopians, and technologists who created cryptocurrency. Princeton: Princeton University Press. google scholar
  • Chohan, U. W. (2021). A history of dogecoin discussion series: Notes on the 21st century. Erişim adresi: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3091219 veya http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3091219 google scholar
  • Cochrane, D., & Orcutt, G. H. (1949). Application of least squares regression to relationships containing auto- correlated error terms. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 44(245), 32-61. https://doi.org/10.2307/2280349 google scholar
  • Coin Market Cap. (2021). https://coinmarketcap.com google scholar
  • Çarkacıoğlu, A. (2016). Kripto-para bitcoin. Sermaye Piyasası Kurulu Araştırma Dairesi Araştırma Raporu. google scholar
  • Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427-431. https://doi. org/10.2307/2286348 google scholar
  • Durbin, J., & Watson, G. S. (1950). Testing for serial correlation in least squares regression. I. Biometrika, 37(3/4), 409-428. https://doi.org/10.2307/2332391 google scholar
  • Durbin, J., & Watson, G. S. (1971). Testing for serial correlation in least squares regression. III. Biometrika, 58(1), 1-19. https://doi.org/10.2307/2334313 google scholar
  • Fisher, I. (1911). The purchasing power of money: Its determination and relation to credit ınterest and crises (Harry G. B). New York: The Macmilan Co. google scholar
  • Friedman, M. (1969). The optimum quantitiy of money and other essays. London: Macmillan. google scholar
  • Humphrey, T. M. (1974). The quantity theory of money: Its historical evolution and role in policy debates. Economic Review, 60(5), 2-19. Erişim adresi: https://www.richmondfed.org/publications/ research/economic_review/1974/er600301 google scholar
  • Hurlburt, G. F., & Bojanova, I. (2014). Bitcoin: Benefit or curse? It Professional, 16(3), 10-15. https:// doi.org/10.1109/MITP.2014.28 google scholar
  • Inci, A. C., & Lagasse, R. (2019). Cryptocurrencies: Applications and ınvestment opportunities.Journal of Capital Markets Studies, 3(2), 98-112. https://doi.org/10.1108/JCMS-05-2019-0032 google scholar
  • Keynes, J. M. (1937). The general theory of employment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 51(2), 209-223. https://doi.org/10.2307/1882087 google scholar
  • Marian, O. (2016). Is cryptographıc currency an outstandıng tax heaven? İstanbul Üniversitesi Hukuk Fakültesi Mecmuası, 74(2), 919-930. Erişim Adresi: https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/iuhfm/ issue/28495/305044 google scholar
  • Marshall, A. (1923). Money, credit & commerce. London: Macmillan & Co. google scholar
  • Nakamoto, S. (2008). Bitcoin: A peer-to-peer electronic cash system, Erişim adresi: https://Bitcoin.Org/ Bitcoin.Pdf. google scholar
  • Newey, W. K., & West, K. D. (1987). A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix. Econometrica, 55(3), 703-708. https://doi. org/10.2307/1913610 google scholar
  • Özdemir, O., & Kayhan, F. (2019). The effect of global financial crisis on securities portfolio of deposit banks: A difference-ın-differences method for turkey. Business & Management Studies: An InternationalJournal, 7(1), 444-466. https://doi.org/10.15295/bmij.v7i1.1082 google scholar
  • Peck, M. E. (2012). The crypto anarchists’ answer to cash. IEEE Spectrum, 49(6), 50-56. https://doi. org/10.1109/MSPEC.2012.6203968 google scholar
  • Phillips, P. C. B., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/75.2.335 google scholar
  • Pigou, A. C. (1917). The value of money. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 32(1), 38-65. https:// doi.org/10.2307/1885078 google scholar
  • Rotman, S. C. (2014). Bitcoin versus electronic money. The World Bank, No: 88164, 1-4. Erişim adresi: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/ handle/10986/18418/881640BRI0 Box30WLEDGENOTES0Jan02014.pdf?sequence=1 google scholar
  • Shimazu, R. (1969). A reconsıderatıon of the quantıty theory of money. Kyoto University Economic Review, 39(1), 45-62. https://doi.org/10.11179/ker1926.39.45 google scholar
  • Sontakke, K. A., & Ghaisas, A. (2017). Cryptocurrencies: A developing asset class. International Journal of Business Insights & Transformation, 10(2), 10-17. https://doi.org/10.1080/154049 6X.2016.1193002 google scholar
  • Stolbov, M., & Shchepeleva, M. (2020). What predicts the legal status of cryptocurrencies? Economic Analysis and Policy, 67, 273-291. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2020.07.011 google scholar
  • Sun, T., & Yu, W. (2020). A formal verification framework for security ıssues of blockchain smart contracts. Electronics, 9(2), 255-278. https://doi.org/10.3390/electronics9020255 google scholar
  • Şişman, D. (2015). Ulusötesi şirketler ve küresel kriz. Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 37(2), 341-368. google scholar
  • Tredinnick, L. (2019). Cryptocurrencies and the blockchain. Business Information Review, 36(1), 3944. https://doi.org/10.1177/0266382119836314 google scholar
  • Turan, Z. (2018). Kripto paralar, bitcoin, blokzinciri, petro gold, dijital para ve kullanım alanları. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 11(7), 1-5. google scholar
  • Usta, A., & Doğantekin, S. (2017). Blockchain 101 (2.bs). İstanbul: MediaCat Kitapları, Kapital Medya Hizmetleri A.Ş. google scholar
  • White, H. (1980). A heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimator and a direct test for heteroskedasticity. Econometrica, 48(4), 817-838. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912934 google scholar
  • Young, I. (2018). Dogecoin: A brief overview & survey. Erişim adresi: https://ssrn.com/ abstract=3306060 veya http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3306060 google scholar

Kripto Paralarda Miktar Teorisi Uygulaması: Bitcoin Örneği ve Covid-19 Salgının Etkisi

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 71 Sayı: 1, 81 - 102, 16.07.2021

Öz

Bu çalışma kripto paralar için miktar teorisinin geçerliliğini sınamaktadır. Son yıllarda para piyasalarında gündeme gelen kripto paralar, paranın yeni bir türü olarak algılanmaktadır. Paranın tarihsel gelişimi ele alındığında kripto paraların çıkışı, geleneksel paraların kullanılmasına neden olan ihtiyaçlar ile benzerlik göstermektedir. Dolayısıyla literatürdeki para kurallarının geleceğin parası olarak adlandırılan kripto paralar için test edilmemesi büyük bir eksikliktir. Çalışma kapsamında kripto paraların çıkışı ve kullanıma başlaması diğer para türleri ile karşılaştırmalı olarak ele alınmış ve kripto paralar için Fisher’in miktar teorisi modeli test edilmiştir. Temel kripto para birimi olan Bitcoin’in piyasa değeri ve miktarı kullanılarak Ağustos 2010 ve Nisan 2021 dönemini kapsayan aylık frekanslı veriler ile zaman serisi analizi yapılmıştır. Yapılan analiz sonucu Bitcoin miktarı ve değeri arasında doğrusal bir ilişki olduğu anlaşılmıştır. Bu durumun temel nedeni blok zincir yöntemini kullanan kripto paralardaki madencilik faaliyetleri ile açıklanmıştır. Yapılan ekonometrik analiz Covid-19 salgınının Bitcoin miktarı ve piyasa değeri arasındaki doğrusal ilişkiyi güçlendirdiğini göstermiştir. Analiz sonuçlarının anlaşılması ve literatürdeki boşluğu doldurmak amacıyla çalışma kapsamında blok zincir yöntemini kullanan kripto paralar için para arzı, emisyon ve senyoraj geliri gibi konulara değinilmiş ve bu süreçlerin işleyişi açıklanmıştır. Bu çalışma kripto paralarda Fisher Miktar Teorisinin geçerli olmadığını gösteren öncül bir kaynaktır.

Kaynakça

  • Aksoy, E. E. (2018). Bitcoin paradan sonraki en büyük icat (3.bs). İstanbul: Abaküs. google scholar
  • Antonopoulos, A. M. (2015). Mastering bitcoin. Sebastopol: O’Reilly Media, Inc. google scholar
  • Armknecht F., Karame G.O., Mandal A., Youssef F., Zenner E. (2015) In: Conti M., Schunter M., Askoxylakis I. (Ed.), Trust and Trustworthy Computing. Lecture Notes in Computer Science: Vol. 9229. Ripple: Overview and Outlook. içinde (s.163-180). Cham, Springer. https://doi. org/10.1007/978-3-319-22846-4_10 google scholar
  • Ay, İ. C. (2021). Air pollution, health and economic growth: A panel data analysis for countries with the highest co2 emission. Akademik Hassasiyetler, 8(15), 269-288. google scholar
  • Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1979). A simple test for heteroscedasticity and random coefficient variation. Econometrica, 47(5), 1287-1294. https://doi.org/10.2307/1911963 google scholar
  • Brunton, F. (2019). Digital cash: The unknown history of the anarchists, utopians, and technologists who created cryptocurrency. Princeton: Princeton University Press. google scholar
  • Chohan, U. W. (2021). A history of dogecoin discussion series: Notes on the 21st century. Erişim adresi: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3091219 veya http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3091219 google scholar
  • Cochrane, D., & Orcutt, G. H. (1949). Application of least squares regression to relationships containing auto- correlated error terms. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 44(245), 32-61. https://doi.org/10.2307/2280349 google scholar
  • Coin Market Cap. (2021). https://coinmarketcap.com google scholar
  • Çarkacıoğlu, A. (2016). Kripto-para bitcoin. Sermaye Piyasası Kurulu Araştırma Dairesi Araştırma Raporu. google scholar
  • Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427-431. https://doi. org/10.2307/2286348 google scholar
  • Durbin, J., & Watson, G. S. (1950). Testing for serial correlation in least squares regression. I. Biometrika, 37(3/4), 409-428. https://doi.org/10.2307/2332391 google scholar
  • Durbin, J., & Watson, G. S. (1971). Testing for serial correlation in least squares regression. III. Biometrika, 58(1), 1-19. https://doi.org/10.2307/2334313 google scholar
  • Fisher, I. (1911). The purchasing power of money: Its determination and relation to credit ınterest and crises (Harry G. B). New York: The Macmilan Co. google scholar
  • Friedman, M. (1969). The optimum quantitiy of money and other essays. London: Macmillan. google scholar
  • Humphrey, T. M. (1974). The quantity theory of money: Its historical evolution and role in policy debates. Economic Review, 60(5), 2-19. Erişim adresi: https://www.richmondfed.org/publications/ research/economic_review/1974/er600301 google scholar
  • Hurlburt, G. F., & Bojanova, I. (2014). Bitcoin: Benefit or curse? It Professional, 16(3), 10-15. https:// doi.org/10.1109/MITP.2014.28 google scholar
  • Inci, A. C., & Lagasse, R. (2019). Cryptocurrencies: Applications and ınvestment opportunities.Journal of Capital Markets Studies, 3(2), 98-112. https://doi.org/10.1108/JCMS-05-2019-0032 google scholar
  • Keynes, J. M. (1937). The general theory of employment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 51(2), 209-223. https://doi.org/10.2307/1882087 google scholar
  • Marian, O. (2016). Is cryptographıc currency an outstandıng tax heaven? İstanbul Üniversitesi Hukuk Fakültesi Mecmuası, 74(2), 919-930. Erişim Adresi: https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/iuhfm/ issue/28495/305044 google scholar
  • Marshall, A. (1923). Money, credit & commerce. London: Macmillan & Co. google scholar
  • Nakamoto, S. (2008). Bitcoin: A peer-to-peer electronic cash system, Erişim adresi: https://Bitcoin.Org/ Bitcoin.Pdf. google scholar
  • Newey, W. K., & West, K. D. (1987). A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix. Econometrica, 55(3), 703-708. https://doi. org/10.2307/1913610 google scholar
  • Özdemir, O., & Kayhan, F. (2019). The effect of global financial crisis on securities portfolio of deposit banks: A difference-ın-differences method for turkey. Business & Management Studies: An InternationalJournal, 7(1), 444-466. https://doi.org/10.15295/bmij.v7i1.1082 google scholar
  • Peck, M. E. (2012). The crypto anarchists’ answer to cash. IEEE Spectrum, 49(6), 50-56. https://doi. org/10.1109/MSPEC.2012.6203968 google scholar
  • Phillips, P. C. B., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/75.2.335 google scholar
  • Pigou, A. C. (1917). The value of money. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 32(1), 38-65. https:// doi.org/10.2307/1885078 google scholar
  • Rotman, S. C. (2014). Bitcoin versus electronic money. The World Bank, No: 88164, 1-4. Erişim adresi: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/ handle/10986/18418/881640BRI0 Box30WLEDGENOTES0Jan02014.pdf?sequence=1 google scholar
  • Shimazu, R. (1969). A reconsıderatıon of the quantıty theory of money. Kyoto University Economic Review, 39(1), 45-62. https://doi.org/10.11179/ker1926.39.45 google scholar
  • Sontakke, K. A., & Ghaisas, A. (2017). Cryptocurrencies: A developing asset class. International Journal of Business Insights & Transformation, 10(2), 10-17. https://doi.org/10.1080/154049 6X.2016.1193002 google scholar
  • Stolbov, M., & Shchepeleva, M. (2020). What predicts the legal status of cryptocurrencies? Economic Analysis and Policy, 67, 273-291. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2020.07.011 google scholar
  • Sun, T., & Yu, W. (2020). A formal verification framework for security ıssues of blockchain smart contracts. Electronics, 9(2), 255-278. https://doi.org/10.3390/electronics9020255 google scholar
  • Şişman, D. (2015). Ulusötesi şirketler ve küresel kriz. Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 37(2), 341-368. google scholar
  • Tredinnick, L. (2019). Cryptocurrencies and the blockchain. Business Information Review, 36(1), 3944. https://doi.org/10.1177/0266382119836314 google scholar
  • Turan, Z. (2018). Kripto paralar, bitcoin, blokzinciri, petro gold, dijital para ve kullanım alanları. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 11(7), 1-5. google scholar
  • Usta, A., & Doğantekin, S. (2017). Blockchain 101 (2.bs). İstanbul: MediaCat Kitapları, Kapital Medya Hizmetleri A.Ş. google scholar
  • White, H. (1980). A heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimator and a direct test for heteroskedasticity. Econometrica, 48(4), 817-838. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912934 google scholar
  • Young, I. (2018). Dogecoin: A brief overview & survey. Erişim adresi: https://ssrn.com/ abstract=3306060 veya http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3306060 google scholar
Toplam 38 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular İşletme
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Seren Fırat 0000-0001-7269-2905

Esat Daşdemir 0000-0001-8950-2020

Yayımlanma Tarihi 16 Temmuz 2021
Gönderilme Tarihi 12 Şubat 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021 Cilt: 71 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Fırat, S., & Daşdemir, E. (2021). Kripto Paralarda Miktar Teorisi Uygulaması: Bitcoin Örneği ve Covid-19 Salgının Etkisi. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, 71(1), 81-102.
AMA Fırat S, Daşdemir E. Kripto Paralarda Miktar Teorisi Uygulaması: Bitcoin Örneği ve Covid-19 Salgının Etkisi. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi. Temmuz 2021;71(1):81-102.
Chicago Fırat, Seren, ve Esat Daşdemir. “Kripto Paralarda Miktar Teorisi Uygulaması: Bitcoin Örneği Ve Covid-19 Salgının Etkisi”. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 71, sy. 1 (Temmuz 2021): 81-102.
EndNote Fırat S, Daşdemir E (01 Temmuz 2021) Kripto Paralarda Miktar Teorisi Uygulaması: Bitcoin Örneği ve Covid-19 Salgının Etkisi. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 71 1 81–102.
IEEE S. Fırat ve E. Daşdemir, “Kripto Paralarda Miktar Teorisi Uygulaması: Bitcoin Örneği ve Covid-19 Salgının Etkisi”, İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, c. 71, sy. 1, ss. 81–102, 2021.
ISNAD Fırat, Seren - Daşdemir, Esat. “Kripto Paralarda Miktar Teorisi Uygulaması: Bitcoin Örneği Ve Covid-19 Salgının Etkisi”. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi 71/1 (Temmuz 2021), 81-102.
JAMA Fırat S, Daşdemir E. Kripto Paralarda Miktar Teorisi Uygulaması: Bitcoin Örneği ve Covid-19 Salgının Etkisi. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi. 2021;71:81–102.
MLA Fırat, Seren ve Esat Daşdemir. “Kripto Paralarda Miktar Teorisi Uygulaması: Bitcoin Örneği Ve Covid-19 Salgının Etkisi”. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, c. 71, sy. 1, 2021, ss. 81-102.
Vancouver Fırat S, Daşdemir E. Kripto Paralarda Miktar Teorisi Uygulaması: Bitcoin Örneği ve Covid-19 Salgının Etkisi. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi. 2021;71(1):81-102.