Current Account Deficit – Budget Deficit – Debt Sustainability Triangle in Turkey: A Data Based Causality Analysis
Öz
In this study, we examine the
causal patterns among current account deficit, budget deficit, government debt
sustainability, and inflation in Turkey for the period 1975 – 2017. The strong
integration of emerging economies such as Turkey to the global economy depends
on determining the true causal relationship between macroeconomic dynamics that
are considered in this study and the implementation of the related policies
accordingly. Therefore, in order to create inductive causal patterns among the
selected variables, we employ Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) widely used in
causal modeling. The resulting DAG patterns suggest that the current account
deficit has a direct effect on the budget deficit which is a direct determinant of
government debt sustainability. The findings also indicate that inflation is an
indirect determinant of government debt sustainability through its direct
effect on-budget deficit.
Anahtar Kelimeler
directed acyclic graphs public debt budget deficit current account deficit
Kaynakça
- Abdioğlu, Z., & Terzi, H. (2009). Enflasyon ve Bütçe Açıkları İlişkisi: Tanzi ve Patinkin Etkisi. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 23(2), 195–211.
- Ahmet, A. Y., Karaçor, Z., Mucuk, M., & Erdoğan, S. (2004). Bütçe Açığı-Cari İşlemler Açığı Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Örneği (1992-2003). Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, (12), 75–82.
- Akbostanci, E., & Tunç, G. İ. (2001). Turkish Twin Effects: An Error Correction Model of Trade Balance. ERC-Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University.
- Altunöz, U. (2014). Cari açık sorununun temel nedenleri ve sürdürülebilirliği: Türkiye örneği. İstanbul Gelişim Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 1(2), 115–132.
- Anoruo, E., & Ramchander, S. (1998). Current account and fiscal deficits: Evidence from five developing economies of Asia. Journal of Asian Economics.
- Aristovnik, A. (2007). Short-and medium-term determinants of current account balances in Middle East and North Africa countries.
- Baharumshah, A. Z., Lau, E., & Khalid, A. M. (2006). Testing twin deficits hypothesis using VARs and variance decomposition. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy.
- Bassetto, M., & Butters, R. (2010). What is the relationship between large deficits and inflation in industrialized countries? Economic Perspectives, 34(3).
- Bayraktutan, Y., & Demirtaş, I. (2011). Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Cari Açiğin Belirleyicileri: Panel Veri Analizi. Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, (22), 1–28.
- Benli, M. (2019). Yabancı portföy yatırımı-iktisadi büyüme ilişkisi: Yönlendirilmiş döngüsüz graflar analizi. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi.
- Çeliköz, Y. S., & Yukacı, İ. (2016). Konsolide Bütçe Açıkları ve İç Borç-Dış Borç İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği. İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(3), 478–504.
- Chinn, M. D., & Prasad, E. S. (2003). Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration. Journal of International Economics, 59(1), 47–76.
- Darrat, A. F. (1988). Have Large Budget Deficits Caused Rising Trade Deficits? Southern Economic Journal.
- Demiralp, S., & Hoover, K. D. (2003). Searching for the Causal Structure of a Vector Autoregression. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics.
- Devapriya, T. N. K. P. N., & Ichihashi, M. (2012). How does the budget deficit affect inflation in Sri Lanka. IDEC Discussion Paper.
- Dibooǧlu, S. (1997). Accounting for US current account deficits: An empirical investigation. Applied Economics.
- Erdoğan, S., & Bozkurt, H. (2009). Türkiye’de Cari Açığın Belirleyicileri: Mgarch Modelleri ile Bir İnceleme. Maliye ve Finans Yazıları, 1(84), 135–172.
- Evren, İ., & Sevda, A. (2016). Bütçe Açığı ve Enflasyon Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye İçin Ampirik Bir Analiz. Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 38(2), 167–189.
- Günaydın, İ. (2004). Bütçe açıkları enflasyonist midir? Türkiye üzerine bir inceleme. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi Cilt 6, Sayı 1.
- Kesikoğlu, F., Yıldırım, E., & Çeştepe, H. (2013). Cari açığın belirleyicileri: 28 OECD ülkesi için panel VAR analizi. Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi.
- Kwon, D. H., & Bessler, D. A. (2011). Graphical Methods, Inductive Causal Inference, and Econometrics: A Literature Review. Computational Economics.
- Li, Y., Woodard, J. D., & Leatham, D. J. (2013). Causality among Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: A Directed Acyclic Graph Approach. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
- Marinheiro, C. F. (2008). Ricardian equivalence, twin deficits, and the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle in Egypt. Journal of Policy Modeling.
- Pearl, J. (1995). Causal diagrams for empirical research. Biometrika.
- Perera, A., & Liyanage, E. (2012). An Empirical Investigation of the Twin Deficit Hypothesis: Evidence from Sri Lanka. Staff Studies.
- Rehman, A. ur, & Saeed, S. (2017). Valıdity of Twin Defıcit Hypothesis in Case of Pakistan: Using Different Co-Integration Techniques. Economics, Commerce and Trade Management: An International Journal.
- Spirtes, P., Glymour, C. N., Scheines, R., Heckerman, D., Meek, C., Cooper, G., & Richardson, T. (2000). Causation, prediction, and search. MIT press.
- Verma, T., & Pearl, J. (1990). Causal Networks: Semantics and Expressiveness. In Machine Intelligence and Pattern Recognition.
- Zhang, J., Bessler, D. A., & Leatham, D. J. (2006). Does consumer debt cause economic recession? Evidence using directed acyclic graphs. Applied Economics Letters.
Current Account Deficit – Budget Deficit – Debt Sustainability Triangle in Turkey: A Data Based Causality Analysis
Öz
In this study, we examine the
causal patterns among current account deficit, budget deficit, government debt
sustainability, and inflation in Turkey for the period 1975 – 2017. The strong
integration of emerging economies such as Turkey to the global economy depends
on determining the true causal relationship between macroeconomic dynamics that
are considered in this study and the implementation of the related policies
accordingly. Therefore, in order to create inductive causal patterns among the
selected variables, we employ Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) widely used in
causal modeling. The resulting DAG patterns suggest that the current account
deficit has a direct effect on the budget deficit which is a direct determinant of
government debt sustainability. The findings also indicate that inflation is an
indirect determinant of government debt sustainability through its direct
effect on-budget deficit.
Anahtar Kelimeler
: current account deficit budget deficit public debt directed acyclic graphs
Kaynakça
- Abdioğlu, Z., & Terzi, H. (2009). Enflasyon ve Bütçe Açıkları İlişkisi: Tanzi ve Patinkin Etkisi. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 23(2), 195–211.
- Ahmet, A. Y., Karaçor, Z., Mucuk, M., & Erdoğan, S. (2004). Bütçe Açığı-Cari İşlemler Açığı Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Örneği (1992-2003). Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, (12), 75–82.
- Akbostanci, E., & Tunç, G. İ. (2001). Turkish Twin Effects: An Error Correction Model of Trade Balance. ERC-Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University.
- Altunöz, U. (2014). Cari açık sorununun temel nedenleri ve sürdürülebilirliği: Türkiye örneği. İstanbul Gelişim Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 1(2), 115–132.
- Anoruo, E., & Ramchander, S. (1998). Current account and fiscal deficits: Evidence from five developing economies of Asia. Journal of Asian Economics.
- Aristovnik, A. (2007). Short-and medium-term determinants of current account balances in Middle East and North Africa countries.
- Baharumshah, A. Z., Lau, E., & Khalid, A. M. (2006). Testing twin deficits hypothesis using VARs and variance decomposition. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy.
- Bassetto, M., & Butters, R. (2010). What is the relationship between large deficits and inflation in industrialized countries? Economic Perspectives, 34(3).
- Bayraktutan, Y., & Demirtaş, I. (2011). Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Cari Açiğin Belirleyicileri: Panel Veri Analizi. Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, (22), 1–28.
- Benli, M. (2019). Yabancı portföy yatırımı-iktisadi büyüme ilişkisi: Yönlendirilmiş döngüsüz graflar analizi. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi.
- Çeliköz, Y. S., & Yukacı, İ. (2016). Konsolide Bütçe Açıkları ve İç Borç-Dış Borç İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği. İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(3), 478–504.
- Chinn, M. D., & Prasad, E. S. (2003). Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration. Journal of International Economics, 59(1), 47–76.
- Darrat, A. F. (1988). Have Large Budget Deficits Caused Rising Trade Deficits? Southern Economic Journal.
- Demiralp, S., & Hoover, K. D. (2003). Searching for the Causal Structure of a Vector Autoregression. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics.
- Devapriya, T. N. K. P. N., & Ichihashi, M. (2012). How does the budget deficit affect inflation in Sri Lanka. IDEC Discussion Paper.
- Dibooǧlu, S. (1997). Accounting for US current account deficits: An empirical investigation. Applied Economics.
- Erdoğan, S., & Bozkurt, H. (2009). Türkiye’de Cari Açığın Belirleyicileri: Mgarch Modelleri ile Bir İnceleme. Maliye ve Finans Yazıları, 1(84), 135–172.
- Evren, İ., & Sevda, A. (2016). Bütçe Açığı ve Enflasyon Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye İçin Ampirik Bir Analiz. Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 38(2), 167–189.
- Günaydın, İ. (2004). Bütçe açıkları enflasyonist midir? Türkiye üzerine bir inceleme. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi Cilt 6, Sayı 1.
- Kesikoğlu, F., Yıldırım, E., & Çeştepe, H. (2013). Cari açığın belirleyicileri: 28 OECD ülkesi için panel VAR analizi. Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi.
- Kwon, D. H., & Bessler, D. A. (2011). Graphical Methods, Inductive Causal Inference, and Econometrics: A Literature Review. Computational Economics.
- Li, Y., Woodard, J. D., & Leatham, D. J. (2013). Causality among Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: A Directed Acyclic Graph Approach. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
- Marinheiro, C. F. (2008). Ricardian equivalence, twin deficits, and the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle in Egypt. Journal of Policy Modeling.
- Pearl, J. (1995). Causal diagrams for empirical research. Biometrika.
- Perera, A., & Liyanage, E. (2012). An Empirical Investigation of the Twin Deficit Hypothesis: Evidence from Sri Lanka. Staff Studies.
- Rehman, A. ur, & Saeed, S. (2017). Valıdity of Twin Defıcit Hypothesis in Case of Pakistan: Using Different Co-Integration Techniques. Economics, Commerce and Trade Management: An International Journal.
- Spirtes, P., Glymour, C. N., Scheines, R., Heckerman, D., Meek, C., Cooper, G., & Richardson, T. (2000). Causation, prediction, and search. MIT press.
- Verma, T., & Pearl, J. (1990). Causal Networks: Semantics and Expressiveness. In Machine Intelligence and Pattern Recognition.
- Zhang, J., Bessler, D. A., & Leatham, D. J. (2006). Does consumer debt cause economic recession? Evidence using directed acyclic graphs. Applied Economics Letters.
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | Türkçe |
|---|---|
| Konular | Ekonomi |
| Bölüm | Research Articles |
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 13 Mart 2020 |
| Kabul Tarihi | 8 Mart 2020 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2020 Cilt: 2 Sayı: 2 |
Kaynak Göster
BILTÜRK Journal of Economics and Related Studies Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0) altında çalışmaktadır.