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DOĞAL AFETLERİN TETİKLEYİCİSİ OLARAK İKLİM DEĞİŞİKLİĞİ İLE GIDA GÜVENLİĞİ ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN İNCELENMESİ: SAHRA ALTI AFRİKA ÖRNEĞİ

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 15 Sayı: 1 -Deprem Özel Sayısı-, 215 - 234, 22.02.2024
https://doi.org/10.54688/ayd.1412901

Öz

Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, iklim değişikliğinden derinden etkilenen 18 Sahra altı Afrika ülkesine odaklanarak iklim değişikliği ile gıda güvenliği arasındaki bağlantıyı incelemektir. Örneklemde bulunan ülkelere ait 2000-2020 yılları arasındaki iklim değişikliği ile gıda güvenliği değişkenlerine ilişkin veriler, panel veri analizi ile test edilmiştir. Değişkenlerin durağanlık sınaması Im, Peseran, Shin (IPS) ve Levin, Lin, Chu (LLC) birim kök testi ile analiz edilmiştir. Birim kök testinden elde edilen sonuçlara uygun olarak Pedroni ve Kao Eşbütünleşme Testi yapılmış olup, değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli ilişki olduğu saptanmıştır. Son olarak, Dumitrescu Hurlin Nedensellik Testi’nin uygulanması ile iklim değişikliğinden gıda güvenliğine doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Sonuç olarak iklim değişikliğine ilişkin olumlu gelişmeler, gıda güvenliğini olumlu, olumsuz gelişmeler ise olumsuz etkileyecektir. Çalışmanın bulgularının, hem farklı örneklemlerde çalışmalarını yürütebilecek akademisyenler hem de vatandaşlarının gıda güvenliğini güvence altına almak isteyen politika yapıcılar açısından fayda sağlayacağı değerlendirilmektedir.

Kaynakça

  • Adesete, A.A., Olanubi, O.E. & Dauda, R.O. (2022). Climate change and food security in selected Sub-Saharan African Countries. Environ Dev Sustain, 25, 14623–14641.
  • Affoh, R., Zheng, H., Dangui, K. & Dissani, B. M. (2022). The impact of climate variability and change on food security in Sub-Saharan Africa: Perspective from panel data analysis. Sustainability, 14, 759.
  • Anonymous Editorial. (2022). Climate change and food security in Sub-Saharan Africa. Population and Development Review, 48(4): 1217-1220.
  • Appiah, D. O. (2020). Climate policy research uptake dynamics for sustainable agricultural development in Sub-Saharan Africa. GeoJournal, 85, 579–591.
  • Baltagi, B. H. (2001). Econometric analysis of panel data (second edition). New York: John Wiley.
  • Belloumi, M. (2014). Investigating the linkage between climate variables and food security in ESA countries. Reg. Environ. Chang. 2014, 42, 172–186.
  • Brandes, C. (2018). Can climate change cause earthquakes?. Scientia, 31.12.2023, https://www.scientia.global/dr-christianbrandes-can-climate-change-causeearthquakes/
  • Ceesay. E. K. & Ndiaye. M. B. O. (2022). Climate change, food security and economic growth nexus in the Gambia: Evidence from an econometrics analysis. Research in Globalization, 5, 100089.
  • Cutcu. I., Keser, A. & Eren, M. V. (2023a). What is the relationship between climate change performance and education policies? Sample of highest fifteen climate change performing countries? Reference Collection in Social Sciences, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-44-313776-1.00045-3
  • Cutcu. I., Keser, A. & Eren, M. V. (2023b). Causation between energy consumption and climate change in the countries with the highest global climate risk. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30, 15585–15598, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-23181-8
  • Donkor, F. K. (2023). Editorial: Cross-cutting issues in the water, land, energy and food security nexus: Perspectives from Sub-Saharan Africa. Front. Sustain. Food Syst, 7(11), 62498.
  • Dumitrescu, E. I. & Hurlin, C. (2012). Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels. Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1450-1460.
  • Economist Impact. (2021). Global Food Security Index (GFSI), London and IMF Staff Calculations.
  • Edoja, P. E., Aye, G. C. Aye & Abu, O. (2016). Dynamic relationship among CO2 emission, agricultural productivity and food security in Nigeria. Cogent Economics & Finance, 4(1), 1204809.
  • Fagbemi, F., Oke, D. F. & Fajingbesi, A. (2023). Climate-resilient development: An approach to sustainable food production in sub-Saharan Africa. Future Foods, 7, 100216.
  • FAO. (1983). World food security: A reappraisal of the concepts and approaches. Director General’s Report. Rome.
  • FAO. (1996). Rome Declaration on World Food Security and World Food Summit Plan of Action: World Food Summit, 13-17 November 1996, Rome, Italy.
  • FAO. (2015). Climate change and food security: Risks and responses. https://www.fao.org/3/i5188e/I5188E.pdf
  • Geffersa, A. G. (2014). Effects of climate shocks on household food security in rural Ethiopia: panel data estimation (Master Thesis). Wageningen University, Department of Social Sciences
  • Idumah. F. O., Mangodo. C.. Ighodarol. U. & Owombo. Y. (2016). Climate change and food production in Nigeria: Implication for food security in Nigeria. Journal of Agricultural Science, 8(2), 74-83.
  • Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115 (1), 53-74.
  • IPCC. (2001): Climate change 2001: The scientific basis. Contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change [Houghton, J.T., Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P.J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, and C.A. Johnson (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
  • IPCC. (2007). Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
  • Islam, M. S., Okubo, K., Islam, A.H.M.S. & Sato, M. (2021). Investigating the effect of climate change on food loss and food security in Bangladesh. SN Business & Economics, 2 (4). https://doi.org/10.1007/s43546-021-00177-z
  • Jafino, B., Walsh, B., Rozenberg, J., & Hallegatte, S. (2020). Revised estimates of the impact of climate change on extreme poverty by 2030. Policy research working paper No. 9417. World Bank, Washington, DC. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/34555
  • Justus, J. R. & Fletcher, S. R. (2006). Global climate change: Major scientific and policy issues. Washington D.C. Kabubo-Mariara, J. & Kabara, M. (2015). Climate change and food security in Kenya. Environment for Development, Discussion Paper Series No. 15-05.
  • Kao, C. (1999). Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data. Journal of Econometrics, 90(1), 1-44.
  • Kar, S. (2013). Impact of global warming on the probable earthquake in the Bengal Basin Area with respect to the global scenario. International Journal of Engineering Science Invention, 2(7), 20-28.
  • Kumar, A. & Sharma, P. (2013). Impact of climate variation on agricultural productivity and food security in rural India. Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Economics Discussion Papers, No. 2013-43.
  • Lee, C. C., Zeng, M. & Luo, K.. (2024). How does climate change affect food security? Evidence from China. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 104, 107324, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2023.107324
  • Levin, A., Lin, C. F. (1992) Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties. UC San Diego, Working Paper 92-23.
  • Levin, A., Lin, C. F. & Chu, J. (2002). Unit root tests in panel data: Asymptotic and finite-sample properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108, 1-24.
  • Mahrous, W. (2019), Climate change and food security in EAC region: A panel data analysis. Review of Economics and Political Science, 4(4), 270-284.
  • Masih. A. (2018). An enhanced seismic activity observed due to climate change: Preliminary results from Alaska. IOP conference series Earth and environmental science, 167(1), 012018.
  • Máté, D., Rabbi, M.F., Novotny, A. & Kovács, S. (2020). Grand challenges in Central Europe: The relationship of food security, climate change, and energy Use. Energies, 13, 5422.
  • Metin, S. (2023). Afrika’da iklim değişikliğinin etkileri: İklim adaleti ve göç. Akdeniz Havzası ve Afrika Medeniyetleri Dergisi, 5(2), 99-118.
  • Mukuve, F. M., & Fenner, R.A. (2015). The influence of water, land, energy, and soil-nutrient resource interactions on the food system in Uganda. Food Policy, 51, 24-37.
  • Nurkse, R. (1952). Some international aspects of the problem of economic development. The American Economic Review, 42(2). Papers and proceedings of the sixty-fourth annual meeting of the American Economic Association (May).
  • Pedroni, P. (1997). Panel cointegration: Asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to the PPP hypothesis, working paper, Indiana University.
  • Pedroni, P. (1999). Critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, 61(1), 653-670.
  • Quah, D. (1994). Exploiting cross-section variation for unit root inference in dynamic data, Economics Letters, 44 (1–2), 9-19, https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1765(93)00302-5.
  • UN. (2022). The sustainable development goals report 2022. 14.12.2023, https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2022/The-Sustainable-Development-Goals-Report-2022.pdf
  • UNDP (United Nations Development Programme). (1994). The human development report, Oxford University Press: New York- Oxford. 25.12.2023, http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/reports/255/hdr_1994_en_complete_nostats.pdf
  • Vink, N. (2012). Food security and African agriculture. South African Journal of International Affairs, 19(2), 157-177.

DEPREM2024 - AN INVESTIGATION OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE AS A TRIGGER OF NATURAL DISASTERS AND FOOD SECURITY: THE CASE OF SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 15 Sayı: 1 -Deprem Özel Sayısı-, 215 - 234, 22.02.2024
https://doi.org/10.54688/ayd.1412901

Öz

The primary objective of this study is to examine the nexus between climate change and food security, focusing on 18 sub-Saharan African countries profoundly impacted by climate change. Employing panel data analysis, we assessed data on climate change and food security variables spanning from 2000 to 2020 within the sampled countries. The stationarity of these variables was scrutinized using the Im, Peseran, Shin (IPS) and Levin, Lin, Chu (LLC) unit root tests. Subsequent to the unit root test results, we conducted the Pedroni and Kao Cointegration Test, revealing a long-term relationship between the variables. Employing the Dumitrescu-Hurlin Causality Test, we identified a unidirectional causality relationship from climate change to food security. In essence, favorable shifts in climate change positively impact food security, while adverse changes have a detrimental effect. These findings are anticipated to provide valuable insights for academics exploring diverse samples and policymakers seeking to enhance the food security of their constituents.

Kaynakça

  • Adesete, A.A., Olanubi, O.E. & Dauda, R.O. (2022). Climate change and food security in selected Sub-Saharan African Countries. Environ Dev Sustain, 25, 14623–14641.
  • Affoh, R., Zheng, H., Dangui, K. & Dissani, B. M. (2022). The impact of climate variability and change on food security in Sub-Saharan Africa: Perspective from panel data analysis. Sustainability, 14, 759.
  • Anonymous Editorial. (2022). Climate change and food security in Sub-Saharan Africa. Population and Development Review, 48(4): 1217-1220.
  • Appiah, D. O. (2020). Climate policy research uptake dynamics for sustainable agricultural development in Sub-Saharan Africa. GeoJournal, 85, 579–591.
  • Baltagi, B. H. (2001). Econometric analysis of panel data (second edition). New York: John Wiley.
  • Belloumi, M. (2014). Investigating the linkage between climate variables and food security in ESA countries. Reg. Environ. Chang. 2014, 42, 172–186.
  • Brandes, C. (2018). Can climate change cause earthquakes?. Scientia, 31.12.2023, https://www.scientia.global/dr-christianbrandes-can-climate-change-causeearthquakes/
  • Ceesay. E. K. & Ndiaye. M. B. O. (2022). Climate change, food security and economic growth nexus in the Gambia: Evidence from an econometrics analysis. Research in Globalization, 5, 100089.
  • Cutcu. I., Keser, A. & Eren, M. V. (2023a). What is the relationship between climate change performance and education policies? Sample of highest fifteen climate change performing countries? Reference Collection in Social Sciences, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-44-313776-1.00045-3
  • Cutcu. I., Keser, A. & Eren, M. V. (2023b). Causation between energy consumption and climate change in the countries with the highest global climate risk. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30, 15585–15598, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-23181-8
  • Donkor, F. K. (2023). Editorial: Cross-cutting issues in the water, land, energy and food security nexus: Perspectives from Sub-Saharan Africa. Front. Sustain. Food Syst, 7(11), 62498.
  • Dumitrescu, E. I. & Hurlin, C. (2012). Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels. Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1450-1460.
  • Economist Impact. (2021). Global Food Security Index (GFSI), London and IMF Staff Calculations.
  • Edoja, P. E., Aye, G. C. Aye & Abu, O. (2016). Dynamic relationship among CO2 emission, agricultural productivity and food security in Nigeria. Cogent Economics & Finance, 4(1), 1204809.
  • Fagbemi, F., Oke, D. F. & Fajingbesi, A. (2023). Climate-resilient development: An approach to sustainable food production in sub-Saharan Africa. Future Foods, 7, 100216.
  • FAO. (1983). World food security: A reappraisal of the concepts and approaches. Director General’s Report. Rome.
  • FAO. (1996). Rome Declaration on World Food Security and World Food Summit Plan of Action: World Food Summit, 13-17 November 1996, Rome, Italy.
  • FAO. (2015). Climate change and food security: Risks and responses. https://www.fao.org/3/i5188e/I5188E.pdf
  • Geffersa, A. G. (2014). Effects of climate shocks on household food security in rural Ethiopia: panel data estimation (Master Thesis). Wageningen University, Department of Social Sciences
  • Idumah. F. O., Mangodo. C.. Ighodarol. U. & Owombo. Y. (2016). Climate change and food production in Nigeria: Implication for food security in Nigeria. Journal of Agricultural Science, 8(2), 74-83.
  • Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115 (1), 53-74.
  • IPCC. (2001): Climate change 2001: The scientific basis. Contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change [Houghton, J.T., Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P.J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, and C.A. Johnson (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
  • IPCC. (2007). Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
  • Islam, M. S., Okubo, K., Islam, A.H.M.S. & Sato, M. (2021). Investigating the effect of climate change on food loss and food security in Bangladesh. SN Business & Economics, 2 (4). https://doi.org/10.1007/s43546-021-00177-z
  • Jafino, B., Walsh, B., Rozenberg, J., & Hallegatte, S. (2020). Revised estimates of the impact of climate change on extreme poverty by 2030. Policy research working paper No. 9417. World Bank, Washington, DC. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/34555
  • Justus, J. R. & Fletcher, S. R. (2006). Global climate change: Major scientific and policy issues. Washington D.C. Kabubo-Mariara, J. & Kabara, M. (2015). Climate change and food security in Kenya. Environment for Development, Discussion Paper Series No. 15-05.
  • Kao, C. (1999). Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data. Journal of Econometrics, 90(1), 1-44.
  • Kar, S. (2013). Impact of global warming on the probable earthquake in the Bengal Basin Area with respect to the global scenario. International Journal of Engineering Science Invention, 2(7), 20-28.
  • Kumar, A. & Sharma, P. (2013). Impact of climate variation on agricultural productivity and food security in rural India. Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Economics Discussion Papers, No. 2013-43.
  • Lee, C. C., Zeng, M. & Luo, K.. (2024). How does climate change affect food security? Evidence from China. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 104, 107324, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2023.107324
  • Levin, A., Lin, C. F. (1992) Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties. UC San Diego, Working Paper 92-23.
  • Levin, A., Lin, C. F. & Chu, J. (2002). Unit root tests in panel data: Asymptotic and finite-sample properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108, 1-24.
  • Mahrous, W. (2019), Climate change and food security in EAC region: A panel data analysis. Review of Economics and Political Science, 4(4), 270-284.
  • Masih. A. (2018). An enhanced seismic activity observed due to climate change: Preliminary results from Alaska. IOP conference series Earth and environmental science, 167(1), 012018.
  • Máté, D., Rabbi, M.F., Novotny, A. & Kovács, S. (2020). Grand challenges in Central Europe: The relationship of food security, climate change, and energy Use. Energies, 13, 5422.
  • Metin, S. (2023). Afrika’da iklim değişikliğinin etkileri: İklim adaleti ve göç. Akdeniz Havzası ve Afrika Medeniyetleri Dergisi, 5(2), 99-118.
  • Mukuve, F. M., & Fenner, R.A. (2015). The influence of water, land, energy, and soil-nutrient resource interactions on the food system in Uganda. Food Policy, 51, 24-37.
  • Nurkse, R. (1952). Some international aspects of the problem of economic development. The American Economic Review, 42(2). Papers and proceedings of the sixty-fourth annual meeting of the American Economic Association (May).
  • Pedroni, P. (1997). Panel cointegration: Asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to the PPP hypothesis, working paper, Indiana University.
  • Pedroni, P. (1999). Critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, 61(1), 653-670.
  • Quah, D. (1994). Exploiting cross-section variation for unit root inference in dynamic data, Economics Letters, 44 (1–2), 9-19, https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1765(93)00302-5.
  • UN. (2022). The sustainable development goals report 2022. 14.12.2023, https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2022/The-Sustainable-Development-Goals-Report-2022.pdf
  • UNDP (United Nations Development Programme). (1994). The human development report, Oxford University Press: New York- Oxford. 25.12.2023, http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/reports/255/hdr_1994_en_complete_nostats.pdf
  • Vink, N. (2012). Food security and African agriculture. South African Journal of International Affairs, 19(2), 157-177.
Toplam 44 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Uluslararası Güvenlik
Bölüm Deprem Özel Sayısı
Yazarlar

Ahmet Keser 0000-0002-1064-7807

Zeynep Köse 0000-0002-9494-3098

Pelin Aliyev 0000-0003-2466-2132

Yayımlanma Tarihi 22 Şubat 2024
Gönderilme Tarihi 31 Aralık 2023
Kabul Tarihi 23 Ocak 2024
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2024 Cilt: 15 Sayı: 1 -Deprem Özel Sayısı-

Kaynak Göster

APA Keser, A., Köse, Z., & Aliyev, P. (2024). DOĞAL AFETLERİN TETİKLEYİCİSİ OLARAK İKLİM DEĞİŞİKLİĞİ İLE GIDA GÜVENLİĞİ ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN İNCELENMESİ: SAHRA ALTI AFRİKA ÖRNEĞİ. Akademik Yaklaşımlar Dergisi, 15(1 -Deprem Özel Sayısı-), 215-234. https://doi.org/10.54688/ayd.1412901