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DÜNYA TİCARET BELİRSİZLİĞİNİN ULUSLARARASI TİCARETE ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ ÖRNEĞİ

Year 2023, Issue: 129, 291 - 313, 11.08.2023
https://doi.org/10.52836/sayistay.1282020

Abstract

Uluslararası ticaret, ekonomik krizler, döviz kuru oynaklıkları, doğal kaynak keşifleri, küreselleşme vb. gibi yerel ve küresel gelişmeler dahil olmak üzere çeşitli ekonomik olaylardan etkilenebilir. Ayrıca ticaret belirsizliği bir ekonominin ticaret hacmini etkileyen bir diğer önemli faktördür. Son dönemde dünyada ABD-Çin Ticaret Savaşı ile birlikte ticaret belirsizliği dönem dönem artmış ve bu belirsizlik diğer ülkelere
de sıçrayarak ticaret hacimlerini etkilemiştir. Bu araştırma, Dünya Ticaret Belirsizliğinin (WTU) 1998:Ç1’den 2021:Ç4’e kadar olan dönem için Türkiye ekonomisinin hem ihracatı hem de ithalatı üzerindeki rolünü anlamaya ve açıklamaya çalışmaktadır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda, bu makale, eşbütünleşme için Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif (ARDL) sınır testi yaklaşımını kullanmaktadır. Çalışmanın ampirik sonuçları her iki model için de değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki olduğunu doğrulamaktadır. Sonuçlar, aynı zamanda, incelenen dönemde, WTU’daki bir artışın Türkiye’nin ihracatını olumsuz etkilediğini, buna karşılık ithalatı üzerinde ise istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkisinin olmadığını göstermiştir.

Supporting Institution

Yok

Project Number

Yok

Thanks

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References

  • Abel, A. B. (1983). Optimal Investment Under Uncertainty. The American Economic Review, 73(1), 228-233.
  • Ahir, H., Bloom, N. and Furceri, D. (2018). World Uncertainty Index. Stanford mimeo, https://policyuncertainty.com/media/WUI_mimeo_10_29.pdf, (accessed on 16 August 2022).
  • Akdag, S., Yildirim, H. and Alola, A. A. (2023). The USA–China Trade Policy Uncertainty and Inference for the Major Global South Indexes. Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, 39(1), 60-77.
  • Alessandri, P. and Mumtaz, H. (2019). Financial Regimes and Uncertainty Shocks. Journal of Monetary Economics, 101, 31-46.
  • Aslan, Ç. and Acikgoz, S. (2021). Analysis of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty and Export Flows for Emerging Markets with Panel VAR Modeling. International Journal of Emerging Markets.
  • Bloom, N. (2014). Fluctuations in Uncertainty. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 28(2), 153-176.
  • Bouri, E., Gkillas, K. and Gupta, R. (2020). Trade Uncertainties and the Hedging Abilities of Bitcoin. Economic Notes, 49(3), Article e12173.
  • Boz, E., Bussière, M. and Marsilli, C. (2015). Recent Slowdown in Global Trade: Cyclical or Structural. The Global Trade Slowdown: A New Normal. (Ed.) Hoekman, B. London: CEPR Press.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. and Nasir, A. B. M. (2004). ARDL Approach to Test the Productivity Bias Hypothesis. Review of Development Economics, 8(3), 483-488.
  • Bandura, W. N. (2022). Trade Uncertainty in US and China on Trade Openness in Sub-Saharan Africa. China Economic Journal, 15(1), 49-59.
  • Caldara, D., Iacoviello, M., Molligo, P., Prestipino, A. and Raffo, A. (2020). The Economic Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty. Journal of Monetary Economics, 109, 38-59.
  • Çekin, S. E. and Nuroğlu, E. (2020). The Effect of Trade Wars on International Trade and the Real Economy. International Journal of Economics and Administrative Studies, 27, 73-90.
  • Chen, X. and Chiang, T. C. (2020). Empirical Investigation of Changes in Policy Uncertainty on Stock Returns—Evidence from China’s Market. Research in International Business and Finance, 53, Article 101183.
  • Constantinescu, C., Mattoo, A. and Ruta, M. (2020). Policy Uncertainty, Trade and Global Value Chains: Some Facts, Many Questions. Review of Industrial Organization, 57(2), 285-308.
  • Crowley, M., Meng, N. and Song, H. (2018). Tariff Scares: Trade Policy Uncertainty and Foreign Market Entry by Chinese Firms. Journal of International Economics, 114, 96-115.
  • Ebeke, C. H. and Siminitz, J. (2018). Trade Uncertainty and Investment in the Euro Area. IMF Working Papers, 281.
  • Eryılmaz, F. and Yılmaz, D. (2020). Effect of Trade Policy Uncertainty on the Risk of Developing Countries: An Empirical Analysis. Turkish Journal of TESAM Academy, 7(1), 91-112.
  • Gilchrist, S., Sim, J. W. and Zakrajšek, E. (2014). Uncertainty, Financial Frictions, and Investment Dynamics. National Bureau of Economic Research, No. w20038.
  • Gozgor, G., Tiwari, A. K., Demir, E. and Akron, S. (2019). The Relationship Between Bitcoin Returns and Trade Policy Uncertainty. Finance Research Letters, 29, 75-82.
  • Han, L., Qi, M. and Yin, L. (2016). Macroeconomic Policy Uncertainty Shocks on the Chinese Economy: A GVAR Analysis. Applied Economics, 48(51), 4907-4921.
  • Handley, K. and Limao, N. (2015). Trade and Investment Under Policy Uncertainty: Theory and Firm Evidence. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 7(4), 189-222.
  • Hartman, R. (1972). The Effects of Price and Cost Uncertainty on Investment. Journal of Economic Theory, 5(2), 258-266.
  • He, F., Lucey, B. and Wang, Z. (2021). Trade Policy Uncertainty and Its Impact on The Stock Market-Evidence from China-US Trade Conflict. Finance Research Letters, 40, Article 101753.
  • Huang, Y., Lin, C., Liu, S. and Tang, H. (2018). Trade Linkages and Firm Value: Evidence from the 2018 US-China “Trade War”. CTEI Working Papers, CTEI-2018-04, The Graduate Institute Geneva.
  • Jääskelä, J. and Mathews, T. (2015). Explaining the Slowdown in Global Trade. Reserve Bank of Australia Bulletin, September, pp. 39-46.
  • Kirchner, S. (2019). State Of Confusion: Economic Policy Uncertainty and International Trade and Investment. Australian Economic Review, 52(2), 178-199.
  • Krol, R. (2018). Does Uncertainty Over Economic Policy Harm Trade, Foreign Investment, and Prosperity? Mercatus Research, Mercatus Center, George Mason University.
  • Liu, B. (2010). Uncertainty Theory. Berlin: Springer.
  • Liu, T. and Woo, W. T. (2018). Understanding the US-China Trade War. China Economic Journal, 11(3), 319-340.
  • Nalban, V. and Smădu, A. (2021). Asymmetric Effects of Uncertainty Shocks: Normal Times and Financial Disruptions Are Different. Journal of Macroeconomics, 69, Article 103331.
  • Narayan, P. K. (2005). The Saving and Investment Nexus for China: Evidence from Cointegration Tests. Applied Economics, 37(17), 1979-1990.
  • Nazlioglu, S., Kayhan, S. and Adiguzel, U. (2014). Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in Turkey: Cointegration, Linear and Nonlinear Granger Causality. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 9(4), 315-324.
  • Nguyen, D. X. (2012). Demand Uncertainty: Exporting Delays and Exporting Failures. Journal of International Economics, 86(2), 336-344.
  • Novy, D. and Taylor, A. M. (2020). Trade and Uncertainty. Review of Economics and Statistics, 102(4), 749-765.
  • Oi, W. Y. (1961). The Desirability of Price Instability Under Perfect Competition. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 58-64.
  • Osnago, A., Piermartini, R. and Rocha, N. (2015). Trade Policy Uncertainty as Barrier to Trade (No. ERSD-2015-05). WTO Staff Working Paper.
  • Ozkan, O. (2020). Causality Relationship Between USA’s Economic and Trade Policy Uncertainties and Dollar-TL Exchange Rate. 19th International Business Congress.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. and Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
  • Rashish, P. S. (2017). US Trade Policy in the Age of Trump: What Role for Europe in the “New Nationalism”? EPC Commentary, 13 November 2017.
  • Sharma, C. and Paramati, S. R. (2021). Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Dampen Imports? Commodity-Level Evidence from India. Economic Modelling, 94, 139-149.
  • Tam, P. S. (2018). Global Trade Flows and Economic Policy Uncertainty. Applied Economics, 50(34-35), 3718-3734.
  • Tian, J., Sim, N., Yan, W. and Li, Y. (2020). Trade Uncertainty, Income, and Democracy. Economic Modelling, 90, 21-31.
  • Wei, Y. (2019). Oil Price Shocks, Economic Policy Uncertainty and China’s Trade: A Quantitative Structural Analysis. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 48, 20-31.
  • World Bank (2022). World Development Indicators, World Bank World Development Indicators Database. Retrieved from: https://databank.worldbank.org/source/worlddevelopment-indicators. Accessed on 10 August 2022.
  • Yıldırım, E. U. (2021). Effects of the US Trade Policy Uncertainty on the Turkish Financial Markets and Bank Loans. Sosyoekonomi, 29(50), 11-33.
  • Yılmaz, D. and Eryılmaz, F. (2020). Impact of Global Trade Protectionism on Financial Markets: An Analysis on Turkey. Third Sector Social Economic Review, 55(1), 616-635.
  • Yin, L. and Han, L. (2014). Spillovers of Macroeconomic Uncertainty Among Major Economies. Applied Economics Letters, 21(13), 938-944.

The Impact of the World Trade Uncertainty on International Trade: The Case of the Turkish Economy

Year 2023, Issue: 129, 291 - 313, 11.08.2023
https://doi.org/10.52836/sayistay.1282020

Abstract

International trade can be affected by various economic events, including domestic and global developments, such as economic crises, exchange rate volatilities, natural resource explorations, and globalization. In addition, trade uncertainty is an important factor that affects the trade volume of an economy. Recently, trade uncertainty has increased episodically in the world with trade wars between the US and China, and this uncertainty has spilled over to other countries, thereby affecting trade volumes. This study attempts to understand and explain the role of World Trade Uncertainty (WTU) on both export and import in the Turkish economy for the period from 1998:Q1 to 2021:Q4. Therefore, this study utilizes the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test. The research findings presented here reveal that there is a long-run nexus between the variables in both models. The results also show that an increase in WTU negatively affects export, while it has no statistically significant effect on Turkish import for the period examined.

Project Number

Yok

References

  • Abel, A. B. (1983). Optimal Investment Under Uncertainty. The American Economic Review, 73(1), 228-233.
  • Ahir, H., Bloom, N. and Furceri, D. (2018). World Uncertainty Index. Stanford mimeo, https://policyuncertainty.com/media/WUI_mimeo_10_29.pdf, (accessed on 16 August 2022).
  • Akdag, S., Yildirim, H. and Alola, A. A. (2023). The USA–China Trade Policy Uncertainty and Inference for the Major Global South Indexes. Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, 39(1), 60-77.
  • Alessandri, P. and Mumtaz, H. (2019). Financial Regimes and Uncertainty Shocks. Journal of Monetary Economics, 101, 31-46.
  • Aslan, Ç. and Acikgoz, S. (2021). Analysis of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty and Export Flows for Emerging Markets with Panel VAR Modeling. International Journal of Emerging Markets.
  • Bloom, N. (2014). Fluctuations in Uncertainty. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 28(2), 153-176.
  • Bouri, E., Gkillas, K. and Gupta, R. (2020). Trade Uncertainties and the Hedging Abilities of Bitcoin. Economic Notes, 49(3), Article e12173.
  • Boz, E., Bussière, M. and Marsilli, C. (2015). Recent Slowdown in Global Trade: Cyclical or Structural. The Global Trade Slowdown: A New Normal. (Ed.) Hoekman, B. London: CEPR Press.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. and Nasir, A. B. M. (2004). ARDL Approach to Test the Productivity Bias Hypothesis. Review of Development Economics, 8(3), 483-488.
  • Bandura, W. N. (2022). Trade Uncertainty in US and China on Trade Openness in Sub-Saharan Africa. China Economic Journal, 15(1), 49-59.
  • Caldara, D., Iacoviello, M., Molligo, P., Prestipino, A. and Raffo, A. (2020). The Economic Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty. Journal of Monetary Economics, 109, 38-59.
  • Çekin, S. E. and Nuroğlu, E. (2020). The Effect of Trade Wars on International Trade and the Real Economy. International Journal of Economics and Administrative Studies, 27, 73-90.
  • Chen, X. and Chiang, T. C. (2020). Empirical Investigation of Changes in Policy Uncertainty on Stock Returns—Evidence from China’s Market. Research in International Business and Finance, 53, Article 101183.
  • Constantinescu, C., Mattoo, A. and Ruta, M. (2020). Policy Uncertainty, Trade and Global Value Chains: Some Facts, Many Questions. Review of Industrial Organization, 57(2), 285-308.
  • Crowley, M., Meng, N. and Song, H. (2018). Tariff Scares: Trade Policy Uncertainty and Foreign Market Entry by Chinese Firms. Journal of International Economics, 114, 96-115.
  • Ebeke, C. H. and Siminitz, J. (2018). Trade Uncertainty and Investment in the Euro Area. IMF Working Papers, 281.
  • Eryılmaz, F. and Yılmaz, D. (2020). Effect of Trade Policy Uncertainty on the Risk of Developing Countries: An Empirical Analysis. Turkish Journal of TESAM Academy, 7(1), 91-112.
  • Gilchrist, S., Sim, J. W. and Zakrajšek, E. (2014). Uncertainty, Financial Frictions, and Investment Dynamics. National Bureau of Economic Research, No. w20038.
  • Gozgor, G., Tiwari, A. K., Demir, E. and Akron, S. (2019). The Relationship Between Bitcoin Returns and Trade Policy Uncertainty. Finance Research Letters, 29, 75-82.
  • Han, L., Qi, M. and Yin, L. (2016). Macroeconomic Policy Uncertainty Shocks on the Chinese Economy: A GVAR Analysis. Applied Economics, 48(51), 4907-4921.
  • Handley, K. and Limao, N. (2015). Trade and Investment Under Policy Uncertainty: Theory and Firm Evidence. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 7(4), 189-222.
  • Hartman, R. (1972). The Effects of Price and Cost Uncertainty on Investment. Journal of Economic Theory, 5(2), 258-266.
  • He, F., Lucey, B. and Wang, Z. (2021). Trade Policy Uncertainty and Its Impact on The Stock Market-Evidence from China-US Trade Conflict. Finance Research Letters, 40, Article 101753.
  • Huang, Y., Lin, C., Liu, S. and Tang, H. (2018). Trade Linkages and Firm Value: Evidence from the 2018 US-China “Trade War”. CTEI Working Papers, CTEI-2018-04, The Graduate Institute Geneva.
  • Jääskelä, J. and Mathews, T. (2015). Explaining the Slowdown in Global Trade. Reserve Bank of Australia Bulletin, September, pp. 39-46.
  • Kirchner, S. (2019). State Of Confusion: Economic Policy Uncertainty and International Trade and Investment. Australian Economic Review, 52(2), 178-199.
  • Krol, R. (2018). Does Uncertainty Over Economic Policy Harm Trade, Foreign Investment, and Prosperity? Mercatus Research, Mercatus Center, George Mason University.
  • Liu, B. (2010). Uncertainty Theory. Berlin: Springer.
  • Liu, T. and Woo, W. T. (2018). Understanding the US-China Trade War. China Economic Journal, 11(3), 319-340.
  • Nalban, V. and Smădu, A. (2021). Asymmetric Effects of Uncertainty Shocks: Normal Times and Financial Disruptions Are Different. Journal of Macroeconomics, 69, Article 103331.
  • Narayan, P. K. (2005). The Saving and Investment Nexus for China: Evidence from Cointegration Tests. Applied Economics, 37(17), 1979-1990.
  • Nazlioglu, S., Kayhan, S. and Adiguzel, U. (2014). Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in Turkey: Cointegration, Linear and Nonlinear Granger Causality. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 9(4), 315-324.
  • Nguyen, D. X. (2012). Demand Uncertainty: Exporting Delays and Exporting Failures. Journal of International Economics, 86(2), 336-344.
  • Novy, D. and Taylor, A. M. (2020). Trade and Uncertainty. Review of Economics and Statistics, 102(4), 749-765.
  • Oi, W. Y. (1961). The Desirability of Price Instability Under Perfect Competition. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 58-64.
  • Osnago, A., Piermartini, R. and Rocha, N. (2015). Trade Policy Uncertainty as Barrier to Trade (No. ERSD-2015-05). WTO Staff Working Paper.
  • Ozkan, O. (2020). Causality Relationship Between USA’s Economic and Trade Policy Uncertainties and Dollar-TL Exchange Rate. 19th International Business Congress.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. and Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
  • Rashish, P. S. (2017). US Trade Policy in the Age of Trump: What Role for Europe in the “New Nationalism”? EPC Commentary, 13 November 2017.
  • Sharma, C. and Paramati, S. R. (2021). Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Dampen Imports? Commodity-Level Evidence from India. Economic Modelling, 94, 139-149.
  • Tam, P. S. (2018). Global Trade Flows and Economic Policy Uncertainty. Applied Economics, 50(34-35), 3718-3734.
  • Tian, J., Sim, N., Yan, W. and Li, Y. (2020). Trade Uncertainty, Income, and Democracy. Economic Modelling, 90, 21-31.
  • Wei, Y. (2019). Oil Price Shocks, Economic Policy Uncertainty and China’s Trade: A Quantitative Structural Analysis. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 48, 20-31.
  • World Bank (2022). World Development Indicators, World Bank World Development Indicators Database. Retrieved from: https://databank.worldbank.org/source/worlddevelopment-indicators. Accessed on 10 August 2022.
  • Yıldırım, E. U. (2021). Effects of the US Trade Policy Uncertainty on the Turkish Financial Markets and Bank Loans. Sosyoekonomi, 29(50), 11-33.
  • Yılmaz, D. and Eryılmaz, F. (2020). Impact of Global Trade Protectionism on Financial Markets: An Analysis on Turkey. Third Sector Social Economic Review, 55(1), 616-635.
  • Yin, L. and Han, L. (2014). Spillovers of Macroeconomic Uncertainty Among Major Economies. Applied Economics Letters, 21(13), 938-944.
There are 47 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Muhammed Şehid Görüş 0000-0002-7614-4567

Mert Akyüz 0000-0002-2322-3384

Project Number Yok
Publication Date August 11, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2023 Issue: 129

Cite

APA Görüş, M. Ş., & Akyüz, M. (2023). The Impact of the World Trade Uncertainty on International Trade: The Case of the Turkish Economy. Sayıştay Dergisi(129), 291-313. https://doi.org/10.52836/sayistay.1282020