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Dünya’da Doğurganlık Oranlarının Dönüşümü: Rejim Değişim Modeli

Year 2023, Volume: 25 Issue: 45, 1324 - 1335, 29.12.2023

Seda Ertürk Selçuk Koç

Abstract

Bu çalışmada 1960’tan 2021’e kadar dünyadaki doğurganlık oranları Rejim Değişim Modeli kullanarak incelenmiştir. Rejim değişim modelleri ile modellemenin sebebi dünyadaki doğurganlık oranları verilerinin zaman zaman rijit değişiklikler yaşaması ve literatürde yapılan çalışmaların rejim değişimini dikkate almadan yaptıkları çalışmaların doğru modellenmediği için hatalı sonuçlar verdiği kaygısıdır. Bu bağlamda doğurganlık oranları tek, çift ve 3 rejim olarak modellenmiş ve en doğru modellemenin incelenen dönemde üç rejim olarak modellemenin olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. Modelleme yapılan çalışmalarda doğrusal olmama testlerini dikkate almadan yapılan çalışmalar (tek rejim olduğunu varsayar) hatalı sonuçlar verir. Doğurganlık oranlarında yaşanan rijit değişimlerden en barizi 1993 yılıdır. 1993’e kadar dünya her üç rejimi birden yaşarken 1993 yılından sonra düşük doğurganlık rejimine geçilmiştir. Düşük doğurganlık rejimi artan yaşam beklentisiyle birlikte nüfus yaşlanmasına ve dolayısıyla birçok ekonomik değişkende değişime yol açmıştır.

Keywords

Demografik Dönüşüm Doğurganlık Oranı Rejim Değişim Modeli

References

  • Adsera, A. (2006). An economic analysis of the gap between desired and actual fertility: The case of Spain. Review of Economics of the Household, 4(1), 75-95.
  • Adsera, A., and Menendez, A. (2011). Fertility changes in Latin America in periods of economic uncertainty. Population Studies, 65(1), 37-56.
  • Akgül, I., Bildirici, M., and Özdemir, S. (2015). Evaluating the nonlinear linkage between gold prices and stock market index using Markov-Switching Bayesian VAR models. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 210, 408-415.
  • Becker, G. S. (1960). An economic analysis of fertility. In Demographic and economic change in developed countries. Columbia University Press, 209-240.
  • Becker, G. S., and Lewis, H. G. (1973). On the interaction between the quantity and quality of children. Journal of Political Economy, 81(2, Part 2), S279-S288.
  • Bernardi, F., Nazio, T., Blossfeld, H. P., Klijzing, E., Mills, M., and Kurz, K. (2005). Globalization and the transition to adulthood in Italy. Globalization, uncertainty and youth in society: The losers in a globalizing world, 359-385. London: Routledge: 349–374.
  • Berquó, E., and Cavenaghi, S. (2005, July). Brazilian fertility regimes: profiles of women below and above replacement levels. In XXV International Conference IUSSP. Anais... Tours, França: IUSSP.
  • Berquó, E., and Cavenaghi, S. (2005, March). Increasing adolescent and youth fertility in Brazil: a new trend or a one-time event. In Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, March (Vol. 30).
  • Busetta, A., Mendola, D., and Vignoli, D. (2019). Persistent joblessness and fertility intentions. Demographic Research, 40, 185-218.
  • Chib, S. (1998). Estimation and comparison of multiple change-point models. Journal of Econometrics, 86(2), 221-241.
  • Cleland, J., and Wilson, C. (1987). Demand theories of the fertility transition: An iconoclastic view. Population Studies, 41(1), 5-30.
  • Doepke, M., Hannusch, A., Kindermann, F., and Tertilt, M. (2023). The economics of fertility: A new era. In Handbook of the Economics of the Family (Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 151-254). North-Holland.
  • Dyson, T., and Murphy, M. (1985). The onset of fertility transition. Population and Development Review, 399-440.
  • Easterlin, R. A. (1975). An economic framework for fertility analysis. Studies in Family Planning, 6(3), 54-63.
  • Easterlin, R. A. (1978). What will 1984 be like? Socioeconomic implications of recent twists in age structure. Demography, 15(4), 397-432.
  • Easterlin, R. A. (1989). Fertility. In Social Economics (pp. 77-89). London: Palgrave Macmillan UK.
  • Elmeskov, J. (2004). Aging, public budgets, and the need for policy reform. Review of International Economics, 12(2), 233-242.
  • Galor, O. (2011). Unified growth theory. Princeton University Press. Guinnane, T. W. (2011). The historical fertility transition: A guide for economists. Journal of Economic Literature, 49(3), 589-614.
  • Hamilton, J. D. (1989). A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle. Econometrica, 57(2), 357–384. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912559
  • Harris, M., and Ross, E. B. (1987). Death, sex, and fertility. population regulation in preindustrial and developing societies. Columbia University Press.
  • Herzer, D., Strulik, H., and Vollmer, S. (2012). The long-run determinants of fertility: one century of demographic change 1900–1999. Journal of Economic Growth, 17, 357-385.
  • Koc, S., and Akgul, I. (2013). The specification of the regime structure in Turkish economy with MS-VAR. İktisat İsletme ve Finans, 28(324), 41-73.
  • Lesthaeghe, R. (1983). A century of demographic and cultural change in Western Europe: An exploration of underlying dimensions. Population and Development Review, 411-435.
  • Lesthaeghe, R. 1995. "The second demographic transition: An interpretation," in K. 0. Ma son and A.-M. Jensen (eds.), Gender and Family Change in Industrialized Countries. Oxford: Clarendon Press, pp. 17-62.
  • Lisenkova, K., Mérette, M., and Wright, R. (2013). Population ageing and the labour market: Modelling size and age-specific effects. Economic Modelling, 35, 981-989.
  • Mason, K. O. (1997). Explaining fertility transitions. Demography, 34(4), 443-454.
  • Matysiak, A., Sobotka, T., and Vignoli, D. (2021). The Great Recession and fertility in Europe: A sub-national analysis. European Journal of Population, 37(1), 29-64.
  • Ranganathan, S., Swain, R. B., and Sumpter, D. J. (2015). The demographic transition and economic growth: implications for development policy. Palgrave Communications, 1(1), 1-8.
  • Rindfuss, R. R., Choe, M. K., and Brauner-Otto, S. R. (2016). The emergence of two distinct fertility regimes in economically advanced countries. Population Research and Policy Review, 35, 287-304.
  • Sanderson, S. K., and Dubrow, J. (2000). Fertility decline in the modern world and in the original demographic transition: Testing three theories with cross-national data. Population and Environment, 21(6), 511-537.
  • Schultz, T. P. (1983). Review of Theory of Fertility Decline., by J. C. Caldwell. Population and Development Review, 9(1), 161–168. https://doi.org/10.2307/1972905
  • Strulik, H., and Vollmer, S. (2015). The fertility transition around the world. Journal of Population Economics, 28, 31-44.
  • Thompson, W. S. 1930. Population Problems. New York: McGrawHill. Timmerman, T. A. (2000). Racial diversity, age diversity, interdependence, and team performance. Small Group Research, 31(5), 592-606.
  • Vignoli, D., Guetto, R., Bazzani, G., Pirani, E., and Minello, A. (2020). A reflection on economic uncertainty and fertility in Europe: The narrative framework. Genus, 76(1), 1-27.

The Transition of Fertility Rates in the World: Regime Switching Model

Year 2023, Volume: 25 Issue: 45, 1324 - 1335, 29.12.2023

Seda Ertürk Selçuk Koç

Abstract

In this study, the fertility rates in the world from 1960 to 2021 were analyzed the Switching Regime Model. The reason for modelling with regime switching models is the fact that the fertility rate data in the world experience rigid changes from time to time and the concern that the studies conducted in the literature without considering the regime change give erroneous results because they are not modelled correctly. In this context, fertility rates were modelled as single, double and triple regimes and it was concluded that the most accurate modelling was the triple regime modelling in the period examined. In modelling studies, studies conducted without considering nonlinearity tests (assuming a single regime) give erroneous results. The most obvious one of the rigid changes in fertility rates is 1993. While the world experienced all three regimes until 1993, the low fertility regime was adopted after 1993. The low fertility regime has led to population ageing with increasing life expectancy and thus to changes in many economic variables.

Keywords

Demographic Transition Fertility Rate Regime Switching Model

References

  • Adsera, A. (2006). An economic analysis of the gap between desired and actual fertility: The case of Spain. Review of Economics of the Household, 4(1), 75-95.
  • Adsera, A., and Menendez, A. (2011). Fertility changes in Latin America in periods of economic uncertainty. Population Studies, 65(1), 37-56.
  • Akgül, I., Bildirici, M., and Özdemir, S. (2015). Evaluating the nonlinear linkage between gold prices and stock market index using Markov-Switching Bayesian VAR models. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 210, 408-415.
  • Becker, G. S. (1960). An economic analysis of fertility. In Demographic and economic change in developed countries. Columbia University Press, 209-240.
  • Becker, G. S., and Lewis, H. G. (1973). On the interaction between the quantity and quality of children. Journal of Political Economy, 81(2, Part 2), S279-S288.
  • Bernardi, F., Nazio, T., Blossfeld, H. P., Klijzing, E., Mills, M., and Kurz, K. (2005). Globalization and the transition to adulthood in Italy. Globalization, uncertainty and youth in society: The losers in a globalizing world, 359-385. London: Routledge: 349–374.
  • Berquó, E., and Cavenaghi, S. (2005, July). Brazilian fertility regimes: profiles of women below and above replacement levels. In XXV International Conference IUSSP. Anais... Tours, França: IUSSP.
  • Berquó, E., and Cavenaghi, S. (2005, March). Increasing adolescent and youth fertility in Brazil: a new trend or a one-time event. In Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, March (Vol. 30).
  • Busetta, A., Mendola, D., and Vignoli, D. (2019). Persistent joblessness and fertility intentions. Demographic Research, 40, 185-218.
  • Chib, S. (1998). Estimation and comparison of multiple change-point models. Journal of Econometrics, 86(2), 221-241.
  • Cleland, J., and Wilson, C. (1987). Demand theories of the fertility transition: An iconoclastic view. Population Studies, 41(1), 5-30.
  • Doepke, M., Hannusch, A., Kindermann, F., and Tertilt, M. (2023). The economics of fertility: A new era. In Handbook of the Economics of the Family (Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 151-254). North-Holland.
  • Dyson, T., and Murphy, M. (1985). The onset of fertility transition. Population and Development Review, 399-440.
  • Easterlin, R. A. (1975). An economic framework for fertility analysis. Studies in Family Planning, 6(3), 54-63.
  • Easterlin, R. A. (1978). What will 1984 be like? Socioeconomic implications of recent twists in age structure. Demography, 15(4), 397-432.
  • Easterlin, R. A. (1989). Fertility. In Social Economics (pp. 77-89). London: Palgrave Macmillan UK.
  • Elmeskov, J. (2004). Aging, public budgets, and the need for policy reform. Review of International Economics, 12(2), 233-242.
  • Galor, O. (2011). Unified growth theory. Princeton University Press. Guinnane, T. W. (2011). The historical fertility transition: A guide for economists. Journal of Economic Literature, 49(3), 589-614.
  • Hamilton, J. D. (1989). A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle. Econometrica, 57(2), 357–384. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912559
  • Harris, M., and Ross, E. B. (1987). Death, sex, and fertility. population regulation in preindustrial and developing societies. Columbia University Press.
  • Herzer, D., Strulik, H., and Vollmer, S. (2012). The long-run determinants of fertility: one century of demographic change 1900–1999. Journal of Economic Growth, 17, 357-385.
  • Koc, S., and Akgul, I. (2013). The specification of the regime structure in Turkish economy with MS-VAR. İktisat İsletme ve Finans, 28(324), 41-73.
  • Lesthaeghe, R. (1983). A century of demographic and cultural change in Western Europe: An exploration of underlying dimensions. Population and Development Review, 411-435.
  • Lesthaeghe, R. 1995. "The second demographic transition: An interpretation," in K. 0. Ma son and A.-M. Jensen (eds.), Gender and Family Change in Industrialized Countries. Oxford: Clarendon Press, pp. 17-62.
  • Lisenkova, K., Mérette, M., and Wright, R. (2013). Population ageing and the labour market: Modelling size and age-specific effects. Economic Modelling, 35, 981-989.
  • Mason, K. O. (1997). Explaining fertility transitions. Demography, 34(4), 443-454.
  • Matysiak, A., Sobotka, T., and Vignoli, D. (2021). The Great Recession and fertility in Europe: A sub-national analysis. European Journal of Population, 37(1), 29-64.
  • Ranganathan, S., Swain, R. B., and Sumpter, D. J. (2015). The demographic transition and economic growth: implications for development policy. Palgrave Communications, 1(1), 1-8.
  • Rindfuss, R. R., Choe, M. K., and Brauner-Otto, S. R. (2016). The emergence of two distinct fertility regimes in economically advanced countries. Population Research and Policy Review, 35, 287-304.
  • Sanderson, S. K., and Dubrow, J. (2000). Fertility decline in the modern world and in the original demographic transition: Testing three theories with cross-national data. Population and Environment, 21(6), 511-537.
  • Schultz, T. P. (1983). Review of Theory of Fertility Decline., by J. C. Caldwell. Population and Development Review, 9(1), 161–168. https://doi.org/10.2307/1972905
  • Strulik, H., and Vollmer, S. (2015). The fertility transition around the world. Journal of Population Economics, 28, 31-44.
  • Thompson, W. S. 1930. Population Problems. New York: McGrawHill. Timmerman, T. A. (2000). Racial diversity, age diversity, interdependence, and team performance. Small Group Research, 31(5), 592-606.
  • Vignoli, D., Guetto, R., Bazzani, G., Pirani, E., and Minello, A. (2020). A reflection on economic uncertainty and fertility in Europe: The narrative framework. Genus, 76(1), 1-27.
There are 34 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Econometric and Statistical Methods, Demography (Other)
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Seda Ertürk

Selçuk Koç 0000-0001-7451-2699

Early Pub Date December 29, 2023
Publication Date December 29, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2023 Volume: 25 Issue: 45

Cite

APA Ertürk, S., & Koç, S. (2023). The Transition of Fertility Rates in the World: Regime Switching Model. Karamanoğlu Mehmetbey Üniversitesi Sosyal Ve Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 25(45), 1324-1335.

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