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Jeopolitik Risk Endeksinin Bankacılık Sektörünün Karlılık Performansına Etkisi

Year 2022, Volume: 7 Issue: 2, 89 - 100, 21.10.2022

Furkan Yıldırım , Ayberk Nuri Berkman

Abstract

Bu çalışma, G-7 ülkelerinin 2012: Q2- 2021: Q4 dönemine ait çeyreklik veriler ile ülkelerin jeopolitik risklerinin bankacılık sektörü karlılık performansına olan etkisini araştırmayı amaçlamaktadır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda bankalara özgü değişkenler ve makro ekonomik değişkenler olmak üzere iki panel model oluşturulmuştur. Panel modeller Driscoll-Kraay sabit etkiler tahmincisi ile analiz edilmiştir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre, jeopolitik risk endeksindeki artış bankaların karlılık performansını negatif yönde etkilemektedir. Ayrıca enflasyon oranındaki artışların da bankacılık sektörünün karlılığı üzerinde negatif etkisi olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Ancak bankaların sermaye yeterlilik oranı, sektördeki kredi büyüme oranı ve faiz oranındaki artışlar bankaların karlılık performansı üzerinde pozitif etki yarattığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Elde edilen tahmin sonuçları, ülkelerde artan risk algısıyla mücadele edebilmek için risk yönetiminin ve piyasayı istikrarlı hale getirmeye yardımcı olabilecek güçlü bir ekonomik sistemin oluşturulmasının oldukça önemli olduğunu göstermektedir.

Keywords

Jeopolitik Risk Bankacılık Sektörü Karlılık Driscoll-Kraay Tahmincisi

References

  • Bhargava, A., Franzini, L., & Narendranathan, W. (1982). Serial Correlation and the Fixed Effects Model. The Review of Economic Studies, 49(4), 533–549.
  • Bildirici, M. (2004). Political Instability and Growth: An Econometric Analysis of Turkey, Mexico, Argentina and Brazil, 1985-2004. Applied Econometrics and International Development, 4(4), 5-26
  • Bouri, E., Demirer, R., Gupta, R., & Marfatia, H. A. (2019). Geopolitical Risks and Movements in Islamic Bond and Equity Markets: A Note. Defence and Peace Economics, 30(3), 367–379.
  • Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239–253.
  • Caldara, D., Iacoviello, M. (2018). Measuring Geopolitical Risk. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Board Working Paper, Version: January 10, 2018.
  • Curto, J. D., & Pinto, J. C. (2011). The Corrected VIF (CVIF). Journal of Applied Statistics, 38(7), 1499–1507.
  • Demir, E., & Danışman, G. O. (2021). The Impact of Economic Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risks on Bank Credit. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 57, 101444.
  • Driscoll, J. C., & Kraay, A. C. (1998). Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation with Spatially Dependent Panel Data. Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(4), 549–560.
  • Ghosh, S. (2016). Political Transition and Bank Performance: How Important was the Arab Spring? Journal of Comparative Economics, 44(2), 372–382.
  • Greene, W. H. (2000). 000. Econometric Analysis.
  • Gujarati, D. (2004). Basic Econometric (Trans. S. Zain). Jakarta: Erlangga Publishers. Search in.
  • Korkmaz, Ö., & Karaca, S. S. (2013). Firma Performansını Etkileyen Faktörler ve Türkiye Örneği/The Factors Affecting Firm Performance: The case of Turkey. Ege Akademik Bakış, 13(2), 169-179
  • Lee, C. C., & Lee, C. C. (2020). Insurance Activity, Real Output, and Geopolitical Risk: Fresh Evidence from BRICS. Economic Modelling, 92, 207–215.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. CESifo Working Paper Series No. 1229; IZA Discussion Paper No. 1240.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross‐Section Dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265–312.
  • Sevüktekin, M., Nargeleçekenler, M., & Giray, F. (2010). A Cross-Country Comparison of Corruption and Public Expenditures: A Panel Data Approach. International Journal of Public Administration, 33(3), 140–150.
  • Şanlısoy, S., Aydın, Ü., Yalçınkaya, A., & Elif, A. (2017). Effect of Political Risk on Bank Profitability. International Journal of Business Management and Economic Research (IJBMER), 8(5), 998–1007.
  • Tatoğlu, F. Y. (2012). Panel Veri Ekonometrisi. Beta Yayınevi.
  • Tatoğlu, F. Y. (2016). Various Approaches for the Estimation of the Three-Dimensional Fixed and Random Effect Models. Breusch Pagan 1980) Eurasian Academy of Sciences Eurasian Econometrics, Statistics & Empirical Econometrics Journal, 5, 60–70.
  • Wooldridge, J. M. (2002). Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data MIT Press. Cambridge, MA, 108(2), 245–254.

The Impact of Geopolitical Risk Index on the Profitability Performance of the Banking Sector

Year 2022, Volume: 7 Issue: 2, 89 - 100, 21.10.2022

Furkan Yıldırım , Ayberk Nuri Berkman

Abstract

This study aimed to investigate the impacts of the geopolitical risks of the countries on the profitability performance of the banking sector using the quarterly data of the G-7 countries over the period 2012:Q2- 2021:Q4. For this purpose, two panel models were established, namely, bank-specific variables and macroeconomic variables. Panel models were analyzed with the Driscoll-Kraay fixed effects estimator. According to the analysis results, the increase in the geopolitical risk index negatively affects the profitability performance of banks. Besides, it was concluded that the increase in the inflation rate had a negative impact on the profitability of the banking sector. Nonetheless, it was concluded that the capital adequacy ratio of the banks, the credit growth rate in the sector, and the increases in the interest rate had positive impacts on the profitability performance of the banks. The obtained estimation results indicated that risk management and the establishment of a strong economic system that could help oturtulmuş the market are quite important in order to combat the increasing risk perception in countries.

Keywords

Geopolitical Risks Banking Sector Profitability Driscoll-Kraay Estimator

References

  • Bhargava, A., Franzini, L., & Narendranathan, W. (1982). Serial Correlation and the Fixed Effects Model. The Review of Economic Studies, 49(4), 533–549.
  • Bildirici, M. (2004). Political Instability and Growth: An Econometric Analysis of Turkey, Mexico, Argentina and Brazil, 1985-2004. Applied Econometrics and International Development, 4(4), 5-26
  • Bouri, E., Demirer, R., Gupta, R., & Marfatia, H. A. (2019). Geopolitical Risks and Movements in Islamic Bond and Equity Markets: A Note. Defence and Peace Economics, 30(3), 367–379.
  • Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239–253.
  • Caldara, D., Iacoviello, M. (2018). Measuring Geopolitical Risk. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Board Working Paper, Version: January 10, 2018.
  • Curto, J. D., & Pinto, J. C. (2011). The Corrected VIF (CVIF). Journal of Applied Statistics, 38(7), 1499–1507.
  • Demir, E., & Danışman, G. O. (2021). The Impact of Economic Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risks on Bank Credit. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 57, 101444.
  • Driscoll, J. C., & Kraay, A. C. (1998). Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation with Spatially Dependent Panel Data. Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(4), 549–560.
  • Ghosh, S. (2016). Political Transition and Bank Performance: How Important was the Arab Spring? Journal of Comparative Economics, 44(2), 372–382.
  • Greene, W. H. (2000). 000. Econometric Analysis.
  • Gujarati, D. (2004). Basic Econometric (Trans. S. Zain). Jakarta: Erlangga Publishers. Search in.
  • Korkmaz, Ö., & Karaca, S. S. (2013). Firma Performansını Etkileyen Faktörler ve Türkiye Örneği/The Factors Affecting Firm Performance: The case of Turkey. Ege Akademik Bakış, 13(2), 169-179
  • Lee, C. C., & Lee, C. C. (2020). Insurance Activity, Real Output, and Geopolitical Risk: Fresh Evidence from BRICS. Economic Modelling, 92, 207–215.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. CESifo Working Paper Series No. 1229; IZA Discussion Paper No. 1240.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross‐Section Dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265–312.
  • Sevüktekin, M., Nargeleçekenler, M., & Giray, F. (2010). A Cross-Country Comparison of Corruption and Public Expenditures: A Panel Data Approach. International Journal of Public Administration, 33(3), 140–150.
  • Şanlısoy, S., Aydın, Ü., Yalçınkaya, A., & Elif, A. (2017). Effect of Political Risk on Bank Profitability. International Journal of Business Management and Economic Research (IJBMER), 8(5), 998–1007.
  • Tatoğlu, F. Y. (2012). Panel Veri Ekonometrisi. Beta Yayınevi.
  • Tatoğlu, F. Y. (2016). Various Approaches for the Estimation of the Three-Dimensional Fixed and Random Effect Models. Breusch Pagan 1980) Eurasian Academy of Sciences Eurasian Econometrics, Statistics & Empirical Econometrics Journal, 5, 60–70.
  • Wooldridge, J. M. (2002). Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data MIT Press. Cambridge, MA, 108(2), 245–254.
There are 20 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Furkan Yıldırım 0000-0002-0646-8638

Ayberk Nuri Berkman 0000-0003-1650-381X

Early Pub Date October 21, 2022
Publication Date October 21, 2022
Submission Date August 22, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2022Volume: 7 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Yıldırım, F., & Berkman, A. N. (2022). The Impact of Geopolitical Risk Index on the Profitability Performance of the Banking Sector. Türk Sosyal Bilimler Araştırmaları Dergisi, 7(2), 89-100.