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The Effect of Economic Freedoms Index Indicators on the Credit Ratings of Newly Industrialized Countries

Year 2022, Volume: 7 Issue: 4, 909 - 924, 31.12.2022
https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.1200927

Abstract

Sovereign credit ratings given by international credit rating agencies play an important role in determining the direction of fund flows among countries. Especially newly industrialized countries consistently need financing in order to make the development sustainable and to finance future investments. In this study, the factors affecting the credit ratings of newly industrialized countries are discussed. Foremost among these factors, the rule of law, the government size, the regulatory efficiency, and the open markets are considered as indicators of the economic freedom index. Moreover, the growth rate of gross domestic product and inflation rate are included into the model to control the macroeconomic and income levels of the countries. The parameters were estimated by applying Driscoll-Kraay Standard Errors analysis on the panel data set spanning from 1995 to 2021. As a result of the analysis, it is seen that all economic freedom index indicators except the open market indicator have a positive and significant effect on the credit ratings of countries. Consequently, the study argues that the newly industrialized countries' taking steps to improve their economic freedom will reduce the risk factors of the countries and thus achieve investment-grade credit ratings.

References

  • Afonso, A. (2003). Understanding the determinants of sovereign debt ratings: Evidence for the two leading agencies. Journal of Economics and Finance, 27(1), 56-74. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02751590
  • Archer, C.C., Biglaiser, G. and DeRouen, K. (2007). Sovereign bonds and the “democratic advantage”: Does regime type affect credit rating agency ratings in the developing world? International Organization, 61(2), 341-365. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818307070129
  • Balıkçıoğlu, B. and Yılmaz, H.H. (2019). How fiscal policies affect credit rates: Probit analysis of three main credit rating agencies’ sovereign credit notes. Transylvanian Review of Administrative Sciences, 56, 5-22. http://dx.doi.org/10.24193/tras.56E.1
  • Baltagi, B.H. (2013). Panel data forecasting. In G.Elliot and A.Timmermann (Eds.), Handbook of economic forecasting (pp. 995-1024). https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-444-62731-5.00018-X
  • Barta, Z. and Johnston, A. (2018). Rating politics? Partisan discrimination in credit ratings in developed economies. Comparative Political Studies, 51(5), 587-620. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414017710263
  • Barta, Z. and Makszin, K. (2020). The politics of creditworthiness: Political and policy commentary in sovereign credit rating reports. Journal of Public Policy, 41(2), 307-330. doi:10.1017/S0143814X20000033
  • Basu, K., Bisen, A., De, S., Ghosh, R. and Shweta. (2012). Comparative rating index for sovereigns: A new index of sovereign credit ratings and an analysis of how nations fared over the last six years. Retrieved from https://dea.gov.in/sites/default/files/CRIS_report_SCR28032012.pdf
  • Bergh, A., and Karlsson, M. (2010). Government size and growth: Accounting for economic freedom and globalization. Public Choice, 142(1), 195-213. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-009-9484-1
  • Bissoondoyal-Bheenick, E. (2005). An analysis of the determinants of sovereign ratings. Global Finance Journal, 15(3), 251-280. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfj.2004.03.004
  • Bujang, M.A. and Baharum, N. (2016). Sample size guideline for correlation analysis. World Journal of Social Science Research, 3(1), 37-46. https://doi.org/10.22158/wjssr.v3n1p37
  • Butler, A.W. and Fauver, L. (2006). Institutional environment and sovereign credit rating. Financial Management, 35(3), 53-79. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1755-053X.2006.tb00147.x
  • Cantor, R. and Packer, F. (1996), Determinants and impact of sovereign credit rating. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review, 2(2), 37-54. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1028774
  • Chang, K., Li, Y. and Shim, Y. (2022). Corporate social responsibility and credit rating around the world: The role of societal trust. The Financial Review, 57, 863– 891. https://doi.org/10.1111/fire.12314
  • Chen, Y. and Puttitanun, T. (2005). Intellectual property rights and innovation in developing countries. Journal of Development Economics, 78(2), 474-493. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2004.11.005
  • Corporate Finance Institute. (2022). Newly industrialized countries. Retrieved from https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/economics/newly-industrialized-country-nic/
  • Demmou, L., Calligaris, S., Franco, G., Dlugosch, D., McGowan, M.A. and Sakha, S. (2021). Insolvency and debt overhang following the COVID-19 outbreak: Assessment of risks and policy responses (OECD Economics Department Working Papers No. 1651). Retrieved from https://invenio.unidep.org/invenio/record/25289/files/747a8226-en.pdf
  • Driscoll, J.C. and Kraay, A.C. (1998). Consistent covariance matrix estimation with spatially dependent panel data. Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(4), 549-560. https://doi.org/10.1162/003465398557825
  • Feldmann, H. (2010). Government size and unemployment in developing countries. Applied Economics Letters, 17(3), 289-292. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504850701720221
  • Gogtay, N.J. and Thatte, U.M. (2017). Principles of correlation analysis. The Journal of the Association of Physicians of India, 65(3), 78-81. Retrieved from https://www.japi.org/
  • Gust, C. and Marquez, J. (2004). International comparisons of productivity growth: The role of information technology and regulatory practices. Labour Economics, 11(1), 33-58. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0927-5371(03)00055-1
  • Gür, H.T. (2000). Ülke riskinin belirlenmesinde yöntemler. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 18(2), 119-139. Erişim adresi: https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/huniibf
  • Heritage. (2022). Index of economic freedom. Retrieved from https://www.heritage.org/index/about
  • Hill, P., Brooks, R. and Faff, R. (2010). Variation in sovereign credit quality assessment across rating agencies. Journal of Banking and Finance, 34, 1327-1343. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2009.11.028
  • Hu, Y.T., Kiesel, R. and Perraudin, W. (2002). The estimation of transition matrices for sovereign credit ratings. Journal of Banking & Finance, 26(7), 1383-1406. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4266(02)00268-6
  • Hussain, M.E. and Haque, M. (2016). Impact of economic freedom on the growth rate: A panel data analysis. Economies, 4(2), 5. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies4020005
  • Kabadayı, B. and Çelik, A.A. (2015). Determinants of sovereign ratings in emerging countries: A qualitative, dependent variable panel data analysis. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 5, 656-62. Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/ijefi/
  • Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A. and Mastruzzi, M. (2003). Governance matters 3: Governance indicators for 1996-2002 (Word Bank Working Paper, No. 3106). https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhh041
  • Mellios, C. and Paget-Blanc, E. (2006). Which factors determine sovereign credit ratings? The European Journal of Finance, 12, 361-77. https://doi.org/10.1080/13518470500377406
  • Overes, Bart, H.L. and van der Wel, M. (2021). Modelling sovereign credit ratings: Evaluating the accuracy and driving factors using machine learning techniques. Computational Economics, Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10614-022-10245-7
  • Öztürk, H., Namli, E. and Erdal, H.İ. (2016). Modelling sovereign credit ratings: The accuracy of models in a heterogeneous sample. Economic Modelling, 54, 469-478. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.01.012
  • Pabuçcu, H. (2019). Ülke kredi notlarının makine öğrenme algoritmaları ile tahmini. İşletme Araştırmaları Dergisi, 11(1), 42-51. https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.484138
  • Park, W.G. and Ginarte, J.C. (1997). Intellectual property rights and economic growth. Contemporary Economic Policy, 15(3), 51-61. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7287.1997.tb00477.x
  • Proença, C., Neves, M. Dias, J.C. and Martins, P. (2021). Determinants of sovereign debt ratings in clusters of European countries–Effects of the crisis. Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 14(3), 403-427. https://doi.org/10.1108/JFEP-01-2021-0017
  • Razmi, M.J. and Refaei, R. (2013). The effect of trade openness and economic freedom on economic growth: The case of Middle East and East Asian countries. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 3(2), 376-385. Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/ijefi
  • Riley, D., Stringer, T., Fox, R. and Colquhoun, A. (2011). Sovereign rating methodology (FitchRatings Report). Retrieved from http://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=648978
  • Saadaoui, A., Elammari, A. and Kriaa, M. (2022). Credit rating announcement and bond liquidity: The case of emerging bond markets. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, 27(53), 86-104. https://doi.org/10.1108/JEFAS-08-2020-0314
  • Takawira, O. and Mwamba, J.W.M. (2020). Determinants of sovereign credit ratings: An application of the Naïve Bayes classifier. Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, 8(4), 279-99. doi:10.15604/ejef.2020.08.04.008
  • Tatoğlu, F.Y. (2012). Panel veri ekonometrisi (1. bs.). İstanbul: Beta Yayınevi.
  • The Global Economy. (2022). Sovereign credit ratings by country: The latest data [Dataset]. Retrieved from https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/credit_rating/

Ekonomik Özgürlükler İndeks Göstergelerinin Yeni Sanayileşen Ülkelerin Kredi Notları Üzerine Etkisi

Year 2022, Volume: 7 Issue: 4, 909 - 924, 31.12.2022
https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.1200927

Abstract

Uluslararası kredi derecelendirme kuruluşlarının verdiği ülke kredi notları ülkeler arasındaki fon akımlarının yönünü belirlemede önemli bir görev üstlenmektedir. Özellikle yeni sanayileşen ülkeler gelişimi sürdürülebilir hale getirmek ve gelecekteki yatırımları finanse etmek amacıyla sürekli olarak finansman ihtiyacı duymaktadır. Bu çalışmada, yeni sanayileşen ülkelerin kredi notlarını etkileyen unsurlar ele alınmıştır. Bu unsurların başında ekonomik özgürlük indeks göstergesi olarak ele aldığımız hukukun üstünlüğü, devletin büyüklüğü, mevzuat yeterliliği ve serbest piyasa değişkenleri gelmektedir. Ayrıca ülkelerin gelir düzeylerini kontrol etmek amacıyla gayri safi yurt içi hasılanın büyüme oranı ve makroekonomik düzeylerini kontrol etmek amacıyla enflasyon oranı modele dahil edilmiştir. 1995-2021 dönemine ait veriler kullanılarak hazırlanan panel veri seti üzerinde Driscoll-Kraay Standart Hatalar analizi uygulanarak parametreler tahmin edilmiştir. Yaptığımız analiz sonucunda serbest piyasa göstergesi dışındaki tüm ekonomik özgürlük indeks göstergelerinin ülkelerin kredi notları üzerinde pozitif ve anlamlı etkisi olduğu görülmektedir. Çalışma sonuçları, yeni sanayileşen ülkelerin ekonomik özgürlük unsurlarını iyileştirici hamleler yapmasının ülkelerin risk faktörlerinin düşmesine böylece yatırım yapılabilir ülke kredi notlarına ulaşmasına sağlayacağını öne sürmektedir.

References

  • Afonso, A. (2003). Understanding the determinants of sovereign debt ratings: Evidence for the two leading agencies. Journal of Economics and Finance, 27(1), 56-74. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02751590
  • Archer, C.C., Biglaiser, G. and DeRouen, K. (2007). Sovereign bonds and the “democratic advantage”: Does regime type affect credit rating agency ratings in the developing world? International Organization, 61(2), 341-365. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818307070129
  • Balıkçıoğlu, B. and Yılmaz, H.H. (2019). How fiscal policies affect credit rates: Probit analysis of three main credit rating agencies’ sovereign credit notes. Transylvanian Review of Administrative Sciences, 56, 5-22. http://dx.doi.org/10.24193/tras.56E.1
  • Baltagi, B.H. (2013). Panel data forecasting. In G.Elliot and A.Timmermann (Eds.), Handbook of economic forecasting (pp. 995-1024). https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-444-62731-5.00018-X
  • Barta, Z. and Johnston, A. (2018). Rating politics? Partisan discrimination in credit ratings in developed economies. Comparative Political Studies, 51(5), 587-620. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414017710263
  • Barta, Z. and Makszin, K. (2020). The politics of creditworthiness: Political and policy commentary in sovereign credit rating reports. Journal of Public Policy, 41(2), 307-330. doi:10.1017/S0143814X20000033
  • Basu, K., Bisen, A., De, S., Ghosh, R. and Shweta. (2012). Comparative rating index for sovereigns: A new index of sovereign credit ratings and an analysis of how nations fared over the last six years. Retrieved from https://dea.gov.in/sites/default/files/CRIS_report_SCR28032012.pdf
  • Bergh, A., and Karlsson, M. (2010). Government size and growth: Accounting for economic freedom and globalization. Public Choice, 142(1), 195-213. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-009-9484-1
  • Bissoondoyal-Bheenick, E. (2005). An analysis of the determinants of sovereign ratings. Global Finance Journal, 15(3), 251-280. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfj.2004.03.004
  • Bujang, M.A. and Baharum, N. (2016). Sample size guideline for correlation analysis. World Journal of Social Science Research, 3(1), 37-46. https://doi.org/10.22158/wjssr.v3n1p37
  • Butler, A.W. and Fauver, L. (2006). Institutional environment and sovereign credit rating. Financial Management, 35(3), 53-79. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1755-053X.2006.tb00147.x
  • Cantor, R. and Packer, F. (1996), Determinants and impact of sovereign credit rating. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review, 2(2), 37-54. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1028774
  • Chang, K., Li, Y. and Shim, Y. (2022). Corporate social responsibility and credit rating around the world: The role of societal trust. The Financial Review, 57, 863– 891. https://doi.org/10.1111/fire.12314
  • Chen, Y. and Puttitanun, T. (2005). Intellectual property rights and innovation in developing countries. Journal of Development Economics, 78(2), 474-493. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2004.11.005
  • Corporate Finance Institute. (2022). Newly industrialized countries. Retrieved from https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/economics/newly-industrialized-country-nic/
  • Demmou, L., Calligaris, S., Franco, G., Dlugosch, D., McGowan, M.A. and Sakha, S. (2021). Insolvency and debt overhang following the COVID-19 outbreak: Assessment of risks and policy responses (OECD Economics Department Working Papers No. 1651). Retrieved from https://invenio.unidep.org/invenio/record/25289/files/747a8226-en.pdf
  • Driscoll, J.C. and Kraay, A.C. (1998). Consistent covariance matrix estimation with spatially dependent panel data. Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(4), 549-560. https://doi.org/10.1162/003465398557825
  • Feldmann, H. (2010). Government size and unemployment in developing countries. Applied Economics Letters, 17(3), 289-292. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504850701720221
  • Gogtay, N.J. and Thatte, U.M. (2017). Principles of correlation analysis. The Journal of the Association of Physicians of India, 65(3), 78-81. Retrieved from https://www.japi.org/
  • Gust, C. and Marquez, J. (2004). International comparisons of productivity growth: The role of information technology and regulatory practices. Labour Economics, 11(1), 33-58. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0927-5371(03)00055-1
  • Gür, H.T. (2000). Ülke riskinin belirlenmesinde yöntemler. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 18(2), 119-139. Erişim adresi: https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/huniibf
  • Heritage. (2022). Index of economic freedom. Retrieved from https://www.heritage.org/index/about
  • Hill, P., Brooks, R. and Faff, R. (2010). Variation in sovereign credit quality assessment across rating agencies. Journal of Banking and Finance, 34, 1327-1343. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2009.11.028
  • Hu, Y.T., Kiesel, R. and Perraudin, W. (2002). The estimation of transition matrices for sovereign credit ratings. Journal of Banking & Finance, 26(7), 1383-1406. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4266(02)00268-6
  • Hussain, M.E. and Haque, M. (2016). Impact of economic freedom on the growth rate: A panel data analysis. Economies, 4(2), 5. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies4020005
  • Kabadayı, B. and Çelik, A.A. (2015). Determinants of sovereign ratings in emerging countries: A qualitative, dependent variable panel data analysis. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 5, 656-62. Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/ijefi/
  • Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A. and Mastruzzi, M. (2003). Governance matters 3: Governance indicators for 1996-2002 (Word Bank Working Paper, No. 3106). https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhh041
  • Mellios, C. and Paget-Blanc, E. (2006). Which factors determine sovereign credit ratings? The European Journal of Finance, 12, 361-77. https://doi.org/10.1080/13518470500377406
  • Overes, Bart, H.L. and van der Wel, M. (2021). Modelling sovereign credit ratings: Evaluating the accuracy and driving factors using machine learning techniques. Computational Economics, Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10614-022-10245-7
  • Öztürk, H., Namli, E. and Erdal, H.İ. (2016). Modelling sovereign credit ratings: The accuracy of models in a heterogeneous sample. Economic Modelling, 54, 469-478. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.01.012
  • Pabuçcu, H. (2019). Ülke kredi notlarının makine öğrenme algoritmaları ile tahmini. İşletme Araştırmaları Dergisi, 11(1), 42-51. https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.484138
  • Park, W.G. and Ginarte, J.C. (1997). Intellectual property rights and economic growth. Contemporary Economic Policy, 15(3), 51-61. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7287.1997.tb00477.x
  • Proença, C., Neves, M. Dias, J.C. and Martins, P. (2021). Determinants of sovereign debt ratings in clusters of European countries–Effects of the crisis. Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 14(3), 403-427. https://doi.org/10.1108/JFEP-01-2021-0017
  • Razmi, M.J. and Refaei, R. (2013). The effect of trade openness and economic freedom on economic growth: The case of Middle East and East Asian countries. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 3(2), 376-385. Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/ijefi
  • Riley, D., Stringer, T., Fox, R. and Colquhoun, A. (2011). Sovereign rating methodology (FitchRatings Report). Retrieved from http://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=648978
  • Saadaoui, A., Elammari, A. and Kriaa, M. (2022). Credit rating announcement and bond liquidity: The case of emerging bond markets. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, 27(53), 86-104. https://doi.org/10.1108/JEFAS-08-2020-0314
  • Takawira, O. and Mwamba, J.W.M. (2020). Determinants of sovereign credit ratings: An application of the Naïve Bayes classifier. Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, 8(4), 279-99. doi:10.15604/ejef.2020.08.04.008
  • Tatoğlu, F.Y. (2012). Panel veri ekonometrisi (1. bs.). İstanbul: Beta Yayınevi.
  • The Global Economy. (2022). Sovereign credit ratings by country: The latest data [Dataset]. Retrieved from https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/credit_rating/
There are 39 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Finance
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Gizem Vergili 0000-0003-1125-1772

Mehmet Sinan Çelik 0000-0002-3102-406X

Bahar Taş 0000-0002-1743-2358

Publication Date December 31, 2022
Acceptance Date December 19, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2022 Volume: 7 Issue: 4

Cite

APA Vergili, G., Çelik, M. S., & Taş, B. (2022). Ekonomik Özgürlükler İndeks Göstergelerinin Yeni Sanayileşen Ülkelerin Kredi Notları Üzerine Etkisi. Ekonomi Politika Ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, 7(4), 909-924. https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.1200927