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The empirical analysis of cereal production under the climate exchange and examining the effects of banks’ domestic credit on cereal production: Evidence from Turkey

Year 2023, Volume: 5 Issue: 2, 40 - 51, 15.12.2023

Sevgi Sumerli Sarıgül Merve Ünlü Pınar Avcı Esra Yaşar

https://doi.org/10.58251/ekonomi.1315338
Cited By: 3

Abstract

In this study, it aims to examine the linkage among climate change, banks’ domestic credit and cereal production such as Turkey's CO2 emissions, average rainfall and average temperature in the period 1980-2019. In the study, firstly, the stationarity properties of the variables are examined by KPSS, ADF and Ng-Perron tests, and the presence of cointegration between the variables is investigated through the ARDL boundary test. Then, the long-run elasticities of the independent series are estimated by applying the ARDL model and the causality linkage among the series is detected through VECM method. Empirical findings show that there is cointegration among the variables and that in Turkey, banks’ domestic credit, CO2 emissions, average rainfall and increase in cereal production area increase cereal production, while average temperature increase reduces cereal production. At the same time, it is determined that there is a bidirectional causality between banks’ domestic credit, CO2 emissions, average rainfall and average temperature and grain production, while there exists a uni-directional causality extending from the grain production area to the grain production. Finally, as a result of the examinations, it is detected that there exists a mutual linkage between the financial sector and cereal production.



Keywords

Climate exchange Cereal production Banks’ domestic credit ARDL model.

References

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  • Adam, C., & Drakos, P. (2022). Climate change: north and south EU economies—an application of dynamic asymmetric panel data models. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(46): 70573-70590.
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  • Asfew, M., & Bedemo, A. (2022). Impact of Climate Change on Cereal Crops Production in Ethiopia. Hindawi Advances in Agriculture, 2208694: 1-8. https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/2208694
  • Attiaoui, I., & Boufateh, T. (2019). Impacts of climate change on cereal farming in Tunisia: a panel ARDL–PMG approach. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 26: 13334-13345.
  • Bayraç H. N. & Doğan E. (2016). Türkiye’nin İklim Değişikliği: Tarım Sektörüne Etkileri. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 11(1): 23-48.
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  • Chandio, A. A., Jiang, Y., Akram, W., Adeel, S., Irfan, M., & Jan, I. (2021). Addressing the effect of climate change in the framework of financial and technological development on cereal production in Pakistan. Journal of Cleaner Production, 288: 125637.
  • Chandio, A. A., Jiang, Y., Fatima, T., Ahmad, F., Ahmad, M., & Li, J. (2022). Assessing the impacts of climate change on cereal production in Bangladesh: evidence from ARDL modeling approach. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management.
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  • Hayaloğlu, P. (2018). İklim Değişikliğinin Tarım Sektörü ve Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri. Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 9(25): 51-62.
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  • Jatuporn, C., & Takeuchi, K. (2023). Assessing the impact of climate change on the agricultural economy in Thailand: An empirical study using panel data analysis. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30(3): 8123-8132.
  • Kaya, H. E. (2020). Kyoto’dan Paris’e Küresel İklim Politikaları. Meriç Uluslararası Sosyal ve Stratejik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 4(10): 165-191.
  • Keskin, A., & Kanat, Z. (2018). Dünyada İklim Değişikliği Üzerine Yapılan Çalışmalar ve Türkiye'de Mevcut Durum. Atatürk Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi, 49(1): 67-77.
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  • Koday, Z. (2000). Türkiye'nin Tahıl Üretimi. Türk Coğrafya Dergisi, 35: 299-320.
  • Koondhar, M. A., Aziz, N., Tan, Z., Yang, S., Abbasi, K. R., & Kong, R. (2021). Green growth of cereal food production under the constraints of agricultural carbon emissions: A new insights from ARDL and VECM models. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments, 47: 101452. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seta.2021.101452
  • Köse, İ. (2018). İklim değişikliği müzakereleri: Türkiye’nin Paris Anlaşması’nı imza süreci. Ege Stratejik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 9(1): 55-81. http://dx.doi.org/10.18354/esam.329348
  • Kumar, P., Sahu, N. C., Kumar, S., & Ansari, M. A. (2021). Impact of climate change on cereal production: evidence from lower-middle-income countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28: 51597-51611. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-14373-9
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  • Loum A., & Fogarassy C. (2015). The Effects of Climate Change on Cereals Yield of Production and Food Security in Gambia. Applied Studies in Agribusiness and Commerce, 9(4): 83-92.
  • Ng, S., & Perron, P. (2001). Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power. Econometrica, 69: 1519-1554.
  • Özçatalbaş, O. (2014). Küresel İklim Değişikliğinin Tarım Yayımı ve Politikaları Üzerine Olası Etkileri, Ulusal Aile Çiftçiliği Sempozyumu, 30-31 Ekim 2014, Ankara.
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  • Pesaran M.H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R.J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16: 289-326.
  • Phillips, P., & Hansen, B. (1990) Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes. Review of Economic Studies, 57: 99-125. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2297545
  • Pickson, R. B., He, G., Ntiamoah, E. B., & Li, C. (2020). Cereal production in the presence of climate change in China. Environmental science and pollution research, 27: 45802-45813.
  • Raifu, I.A., & Aminu, A. (2020). Financial Development and Agricultural Performance in Nigeria: What Role do Institutions Play?. Agricultural Finance Review, 80(2):231-254. https://doi.org/10.1108/AFR-06-2018-0045
  • Raihan, A., & Tuspekova, A. (2022). Nexus between economic growth, energy use, agricultural productivity, and carbon dioxide emissions: new evidence from Nepal. Energy Nexus, 7. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nexus.2022.100113
  • Rehman, A., Ma, H., Ahmad, M., Ozturk, I., & Chishti, M. Z. (2021). How do climatic change, cereal crops and livestock production interact with carbon emissions? Updated evidence from China. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28: 30702-30713.
  • Salahuddin, M., Alam, K., Ozturk, I., & Sohag, K. (2018). The effects of electricity consumption, economic growth, financial development and foreign direct investment on CO2 emissions in Kuwait. Renewable and sustainable energy reviews, 81: 2002-2010. ttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.06.009
  • Shahbaz, M., Shahbaz Shabbir, M., & Sabihuddin Butt, M. (2013). Effect of financial development on agricultural growth in Pakistan: New extensions from bounds test to level relationships and Granger causality tests. International Journal of Social Economics, 40(8): 707-728. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJSE-01-2012-0002
  • Shahbaz, M., Çetin, M., Avcı, P., Sarıgül, S. S., & Topcu, B. A. (2023). The Impact of ICT on Financial Sector Development Under Structural Break: An Empirical Analysis of the Turkish Economy. Global Business Review, 09721509221143632.
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Year 2023, Volume: 5 Issue: 2, 40 - 51, 15.12.2023

Sevgi Sumerli Sarıgül Merve Ünlü Pınar Avcı Esra Yaşar

https://doi.org/10.58251/ekonomi.1315338
Cited By: 3

Abstract

References

  • Acharya, S.P., & Bhatta, G.R. (2013). Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Growth in Nepal. NRB Economic Review, 25(2): 1-16.
  • Abdi, A. H., Warsame, A.A., & Sheik-Ali, I.A. (2023). Modelling the impacts of climate change on cereal crop production in East Africa: evidence from heterogeneous panel cointegration analysis. Environ Sci Pollut Res Int., 30(12): 35246-35257. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-24773-0.
  • Adam, C., & Drakos, P. (2022). Climate change: north and south EU economies—an application of dynamic asymmetric panel data models. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(46): 70573-70590.
  • Adzawla, W., Sawaneh, M., & Yusuf, A. M. (2019). Greenhouse gasses emission and economic growth nexus of sub-Saharan Africa. Scientific African, 3: e00065. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2019.e00065
  • Ahsan, F., Chandio, A. A., & Fang, W. (2020). Climate change impacts on cereal crops production in Pakistan: evidence from cointegration analysis. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, 12(2): 257-269.
  • Alagidede, P., Adu, G., & Frimpong, P. B. (2016). The effect of climate change on economic growth: evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, 18: 417-436.
  • Ali, U., Jing, W., Zhu, J., Omarkhanova, Z., Fahad, S., Nurgazina, Z., & Khan, Z. A. (2021). Climate change ımpacts on agriculture sector: A case study of Pakistan. Ciência Rural, 51.
  • Asfew, M., & Bedemo, A. (2022). Impact of Climate Change on Cereal Crops Production in Ethiopia. Hindawi Advances in Agriculture, 2208694: 1-8. https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/2208694
  • Attiaoui, I., & Boufateh, T. (2019). Impacts of climate change on cereal farming in Tunisia: a panel ARDL–PMG approach. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 26: 13334-13345.
  • Bayraç H. N. & Doğan E. (2016). Türkiye’nin İklim Değişikliği: Tarım Sektörüne Etkileri. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 11(1): 23-48.
  • Calzadilla, A., Rehdanz, K., Betts, R., Falloon, P., Wiltshire, A., & Tol, R. S. (2013). Climate Change Impacts on Global Agriculture. Climatic change, 120: 357-374.
  • Chandio, A. A., Jiang, Y., Abbas, Q., Amin, A., & Mohsin, M. (2022). Does Financial Development Enhance Agricultural Production in the Long‐Run? Evidence From China. Journal of Public Affairs, 22(2): e2342.
  • Castro, N. R., Spolador, H. F. S., & Marin, F. R. (2020). Assessing the economy–climate relationships for Brazilian agriculture. Empirical Economics, 59(3): 1161-1188.
  • Chandio, A. A., Gokmenoglu, K. K., Sethi, N., Ozdemir, D., & Jiang, Y. (2023). Examining the impacts of technological advancement on cereal production in ASEAN countries: Does information and communication technology matter?. European Journal of Agronomy, 144: 126747.
  • Chandio, A. A., Jiang, Y., Akram, W., Adeel, S., Irfan, M., & Jan, I. (2021). Addressing the effect of climate change in the framework of financial and technological development on cereal production in Pakistan. Journal of Cleaner Production, 288: 125637.
  • Chandio, A. A., Jiang, Y., Fatima, T., Ahmad, F., Ahmad, M., & Li, J. (2022). Assessing the impacts of climate change on cereal production in Bangladesh: evidence from ARDL modeling approach. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management.
  • Chandio, A. A., Ozturk, I., Akram, W., Ahmad, F., & Mirani, A.A. (2020). Empirical analysis of climate change factors affecting cereal yield: evidence from Turkey. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27: 11944-11957. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-07739-y
  • Çaltı, N., & Somuncu, M. (2019). İklim Değişikliğinin Türkiye’de Tarım Üzerindeki Etkisi ve Çiftçilerin İklim Değişikliğine Yönelik Tutumları. 1. İstanbul Uluslararası Coğrafya Kongresi Bildiri Kitabı, 20-22 Haziran, İstanbul. http://dx.doi.org/10.26650/PB/PS12.2019.002.084
  • Dickey, D.A., & Fuller, W.A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49(4): 1057-1072.
  • Engle, R.F., & Granger, C.W.J. (1987), Cointegration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica, 55: 251-276.
  • Ertuğrul, H. M., & Soytaş, U. (2013). Sanayi Üretim Endeksinin Durağanlık Özellikleri. İktisat, İşletme ve Finans, 328(28): 51-66. http://dx.doi.org/10.3848/iif.2013.328.3751
  • Grivins, M., Thorsøe, M. H., & Maye, D. (2021). Financial subjectivities in the agricultural sector: A comparative analysis of relations between farmers and banks in Latvia, Denmark and the UK. Journal of Rural Studies, 86: 117-126.
  • Hayaloğlu, P. (2018). İklim Değişikliğinin Tarım Sektörü ve Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri. Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 9(25): 51-62.
  • İrdem, C. (2022). Türkiye Buğday Verimindeki Değişimlerin Sıcaklık ve Yağış Koşulları ile İlişkileri. Turkish Studies - Social, 17(3): 377-392.
  • Jatuporn, C., & Takeuchi, K. (2023). Assessing the impact of climate change on the agricultural economy in Thailand: An empirical study using panel data analysis. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30(3): 8123-8132.
  • Kaya, H. E. (2020). Kyoto’dan Paris’e Küresel İklim Politikaları. Meriç Uluslararası Sosyal ve Stratejik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 4(10): 165-191.
  • Keskin, A., & Kanat, Z. (2018). Dünyada İklim Değişikliği Üzerine Yapılan Çalışmalar ve Türkiye'de Mevcut Durum. Atatürk Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi, 49(1): 67-77.
  • Koç, G., Uzmay, A., & Çukur, F., (2016). İklim Değişikliği ve Hayvancılık Sektörü İlişkisinin Dünya'da ve Türkiye'de Tarım Ekonomisi Açısından Değerlendirilmesi, XII. Tarım Ekonomisi Kongresi, 25-27 Mayıs 2016, Isparta.
  • Koday, Z. (2000). Türkiye'nin Tahıl Üretimi. Türk Coğrafya Dergisi, 35: 299-320.
  • Koondhar, M. A., Aziz, N., Tan, Z., Yang, S., Abbasi, K. R., & Kong, R. (2021). Green growth of cereal food production under the constraints of agricultural carbon emissions: A new insights from ARDL and VECM models. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments, 47: 101452. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seta.2021.101452
  • Köse, İ. (2018). İklim değişikliği müzakereleri: Türkiye’nin Paris Anlaşması’nı imza süreci. Ege Stratejik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 9(1): 55-81. http://dx.doi.org/10.18354/esam.329348
  • Kumar, P., Sahu, N. C., Kumar, S., & Ansari, M. A. (2021). Impact of climate change on cereal production: evidence from lower-middle-income countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28: 51597-51611. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-14373-9
  • Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C. B., Schmidt, P., & Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root: How sure are we that the economic time series have a unit root?. Journal of Econometrics, 54(1992): 159-178. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(92)90104-Y
  • Lee, J., Nadolnyak, D. A., & Hartarska, V. M. (2012). Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Production in Asian Countries: Evidence From Panel Study. Research in Agricultural & Applied Economics, (No. 1372-2016-109059). DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.119808
  • Loum A., & Fogarassy C. (2015). The Effects of Climate Change on Cereals Yield of Production and Food Security in Gambia. Applied Studies in Agribusiness and Commerce, 9(4): 83-92.
  • Ng, S., & Perron, P. (2001). Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power. Econometrica, 69: 1519-1554.
  • Özçatalbaş, O. (2014). Küresel İklim Değişikliğinin Tarım Yayımı ve Politikaları Üzerine Olası Etkileri, Ulusal Aile Çiftçiliği Sempozyumu, 30-31 Ekim 2014, Ankara.
  • Park, J.Y. (1992). Canonical cointegrating regressions. Econometrica, 60(1): 119-143.
  • Pesaran M.H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R.J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16: 289-326.
  • Phillips, P., & Hansen, B. (1990) Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes. Review of Economic Studies, 57: 99-125. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2297545
  • Pickson, R. B., He, G., Ntiamoah, E. B., & Li, C. (2020). Cereal production in the presence of climate change in China. Environmental science and pollution research, 27: 45802-45813.
  • Raifu, I.A., & Aminu, A. (2020). Financial Development and Agricultural Performance in Nigeria: What Role do Institutions Play?. Agricultural Finance Review, 80(2):231-254. https://doi.org/10.1108/AFR-06-2018-0045
  • Raihan, A., & Tuspekova, A. (2022). Nexus between economic growth, energy use, agricultural productivity, and carbon dioxide emissions: new evidence from Nepal. Energy Nexus, 7. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nexus.2022.100113
  • Rehman, A., Ma, H., Ahmad, M., Ozturk, I., & Chishti, M. Z. (2021). How do climatic change, cereal crops and livestock production interact with carbon emissions? Updated evidence from China. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28: 30702-30713.
  • Salahuddin, M., Alam, K., Ozturk, I., & Sohag, K. (2018). The effects of electricity consumption, economic growth, financial development and foreign direct investment on CO2 emissions in Kuwait. Renewable and sustainable energy reviews, 81: 2002-2010. ttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.06.009
  • Shahbaz, M., Shahbaz Shabbir, M., & Sabihuddin Butt, M. (2013). Effect of financial development on agricultural growth in Pakistan: New extensions from bounds test to level relationships and Granger causality tests. International Journal of Social Economics, 40(8): 707-728. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJSE-01-2012-0002
  • Shahbaz, M., Çetin, M., Avcı, P., Sarıgül, S. S., & Topcu, B. A. (2023). The Impact of ICT on Financial Sector Development Under Structural Break: An Empirical Analysis of the Turkish Economy. Global Business Review, 09721509221143632.
  • Stock, J.H., & Watson, M.W. (1993). A simple estimator for cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems. Econometrica, 4: 783-820.
  • TAGEM (2000). İklim Değişikliklerinin Tarım Üzerindeki Etkileri. Tarım ve Köy İşleri Bakanlığı Koruma ve Kontrol Genel Müdürlüğü İklim Değişikliklerinin Tarım Üzerindeki Etkileri Paneli, Ankara.
  • Talu, N. (2015). Türkiye’de İklim Değişikliği Siyaseti. Phoenix Yayınevi.
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Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Capital Market, International Finance
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Sevgi Sumerli Sarıgül 0000-0002-3820-6288

Merve Ünlü 0000-0002-0404-5463

Pınar Avcı 0000-0001-9480-8016

Esra Yaşar 0000-0002-0313-9126

Publication Date December 15, 2023
Submission Date June 15, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2023 Volume: 5 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Sumerli Sarıgül, S., Ünlü, M., Avcı, P., Yaşar, E. (2023). The empirical analysis of cereal production under the climate exchange and examining the effects of banks’ domestic credit on cereal production: Evidence from Turkey. Journal of Ekonomi, 5(2), 40-51. https://doi.org/10.58251/ekonomi.1315338

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