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Mathematical Modeling and Simulation of Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Lagos State, Nigeria

Year 2022, Volume: 19 Issue: 2, 78 - 94, 01.11.2022

Sefiu Onitilo Deborah Danıel

Abstract

Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) is regarded as one of the biggest respiratory illness outbursts influencing different nations concurrently including Nigeria and a novel strain of Coronavirus (SARS-CoV 2) has been distinguished as the causative agent. To study the transmission dynamics of COVID-19, SEAIQR model is presented. The existence and stability of Disease Free Equilibrium (DFE) are established. Numerical evaluation of observed data and model data is fitted using a nonlinear least square method, implemented in Python. Simulations were conducted to further monitor the effect of complaisance with control strategies. It is found that the optimal control shows the effectiveness of control measures (reducing contact rate and usage of mask) when being applied. It is noticed that the best option is to observe social distancing against the use of a mask. Nonetheless, the effective approach is the compliance with both control measures, that is, complaisance with social distancing as well as the utilization of a mask. Hence, it is recommended that there should be educational campaigns on the impact of embracing social distancing, wearing a mask, need to be vaccinated; enforcement and sanctions for non-complaisance with the aforementioned control measures.

Keywords

COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics Coronavirus Disease SEAIQR Model Mathematical Model Control Measures.

References

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  • [17] D. Okuonghae, and A. Omame, “Analysis of a mathematical model for covid-19 population dynamics in Lagos, Nigeria,” Chaos Solitons and Fractals, vol. 139, 2020.
  • [18] W. Ajisegiri, O. Odusanya, and R. Joshi, “Covid-19 outbreak situation in Nigeria and the need for effective engagement of community health workers for epidemic response,” Global Biosecurity, vol. 1, no. 4, 2020.
  • [19] S. A. Onitilo, D. O. Daniel and H. A. Haruna. “Modeling analysis of coronavirus epidemic in Nigeria using Lyapunov functions,” FUW Trends in Science & Technology Journal, vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 627-632, 2021.
  • [20] I. I. Oke, Y. T. Oyebo, O. F. Fakoya, V. S. Benson, and Y. T. Tunde, “A Mathematical Model for Covid-19 Disease Transmission Dynamics with Impact of Saturated Treatment: Modeling, Analysis and Simulation,” Open Access Library Journal, vol. 8, no. 5, pp. 1- 20, 2021.
  • [21] R. Li, S. Pei, B. Chen, Y. Song, T. Zhang, W. Yang and J. Shaman, “Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2),” Science, vol. 368, no. 6490, pp. 489-493, 2020.

Year 2022, Volume: 19 Issue: 2, 78 - 94, 01.11.2022

Sefiu Onitilo Deborah Danıel

Abstract

References

  • [1] H. A. Rothan, and S. N. Byrareddy, “The epidemiology and pathogenesis of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak,” Journal of Autoimmunity, vol. 109, no. 102433, 2020. doi: 10.1016/j.jaut.2020.102433.
  • [2] H. Lu, “Drug treatment options for the 2019-new coronavirus (2019-nCoV),” Bioscience Trends, vol. 14, no. 1, pp. 69-71, 2020. doi: 10.5582/bst.2020.01020.
  • [3] M. Bassetti, A. Vena, and D. R. Giacobbe, “The novel Chinese coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infections: challenges for fighting the storm,” European Journal of Clinical Investigation, vol. 50, no. 3, article e13209, 2020. doi: 10.1111/eci.13209.
  • [4] Worldometer. “COVID live – Coronavirus statistics” https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (accessed: 07.04.2022).
  • [5] NCDC. “Nigeria centre for disease control. covid-19 outbreak in Nigeria: situation report” https://ncdc.gov.ng/diseases/sitreps/?cat=14&name=An%20update%20of%20COVID-19%20outbreak%20 in%20 Nigeria (accessed: 14.10.2021).
  • [6] B. Tang, X. Wang, Q. Li, N. L. Bragazzi, S. Tang, Y. Xiao and J. Wu, “Estimation of the transmission risk of the 2019-nCoV and its implication for public health interventions,” Journal of Clinical Medicine, vol. 9, no. 2, pp. 462, 2020.
  • [7] A. Pack and D. Murray-Smith, “Mathematical models and their applications in medicine,” Scott Medical Journal, vol. 17, no. 12, pp. 401-409, 1972.
  • [8] G. Pokhariyal, and A. Rodrigues, “An accurate epidemiological model,” Applied Mathematics and Computation, vol. 53, no. 1, pp. 1-12, 1993.
  • [9] R. M. Anderson, and R. M. May, “Helminth infections of humans: mathematical models, population dynamics, and control,” Advances in parasitology, Elsevier, vol. 24: pp. 1-101, 1985.
  • [10] A. O. Egonmwan, and D. Okuonghae, “Mathematical analysis of a tuberculosis model with imperfect vaccine,” International Journal of Biomathematics, vol. 12, no. 7, 2019. doi: 10.1142/S1793524519500736.
  • [11] D. O. Daniel, “Mathematical Model for the Transmission of Covid-19 with Nonlinear Forces of Infection and the Need for Prevention Measure in Nigeria,” Journal of Infectious Diseases and Epidemiology, vol. 6, no. 5, pp. 158, 2020. doi: 10.23937/2474-3658/1510158.
  • [12] E. A. Iboi, O. O. Sharomi, C. N. Ngonghala, and A. B. Gumel, “Mathematical Modeling and Analysis of COVID-19 Pandemic in Nigeria,” Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, vol. 17, pp. 7192-7220, 2020. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2020369.
  • [13] İ. H. Aslan, M. Demir, M. M. Wise, and S. Lenhart, “Modeling COVID-19: Forecasting and Analyzing the Dynamics of the Outbreak in Hubei and Turkey”, Mathematical Methods in the Apllied Sciences, vol. 45, no. 10, pp. 6481-6494, 2022.
  • [14] M. S. Alqarni, M. Alghamdi, T. Muhammad, A. S. Alshomrani, and M. A. Khan, “Mathematical modeling for novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and control,” Numerical Methods for Partial Differential Equations, vol. 38, no. 4, pp. 760-776, 2020. doi: 10.1002/num.22695.
  • [15] S. A. Onitilo, M. A. Usman, O. S. Odetunde, F. A. Hammed, Z. O. Ogunwobi, H. A. Haruna, and D. O. Daniel, “Mathematical modeling of 2019 novel Coronavirus (2019 – NCOV) Pandemic in Nigeria,” Chemistry: Bulgarian Journal of Science Education, vol. 29, no. 3, pp. 398-413, 2020.
  • [16] S. Zhao and H. Chen, “Modeling the epidemic dynamics and control of COVID-19 outbreak in China,” Quantitative Biology, vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 11-19, 2020. doi: 10.1007/s40484-020-0199-0.
  • [17] D. Okuonghae, and A. Omame, “Analysis of a mathematical model for covid-19 population dynamics in Lagos, Nigeria,” Chaos Solitons and Fractals, vol. 139, 2020.
  • [18] W. Ajisegiri, O. Odusanya, and R. Joshi, “Covid-19 outbreak situation in Nigeria and the need for effective engagement of community health workers for epidemic response,” Global Biosecurity, vol. 1, no. 4, 2020.
  • [19] S. A. Onitilo, D. O. Daniel and H. A. Haruna. “Modeling analysis of coronavirus epidemic in Nigeria using Lyapunov functions,” FUW Trends in Science & Technology Journal, vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 627-632, 2021.
  • [20] I. I. Oke, Y. T. Oyebo, O. F. Fakoya, V. S. Benson, and Y. T. Tunde, “A Mathematical Model for Covid-19 Disease Transmission Dynamics with Impact of Saturated Treatment: Modeling, Analysis and Simulation,” Open Access Library Journal, vol. 8, no. 5, pp. 1- 20, 2021.
  • [21] R. Li, S. Pei, B. Chen, Y. Song, T. Zhang, W. Yang and J. Shaman, “Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2),” Science, vol. 368, no. 6490, pp. 489-493, 2020.
There are 21 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Engineering
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Sefiu Onitilo 0000-0002-4418-197X

Deborah Danıel 0000-0003-4025-1448

Publication Date November 1, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2022 Volume: 19 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Onitilo, S., & Danıel, D. (2022). Mathematical Modeling and Simulation of Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Lagos State, Nigeria. Cankaya University Journal of Science and Engineering, 19(2), 78-94.
AMA Onitilo S, Danıel D. Mathematical Modeling and Simulation of Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Lagos State, Nigeria. CUJSE. November 2022;19(2):78-94.
Chicago Onitilo, Sefiu, and Deborah Danıel. “Mathematical Modeling and Simulation of Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Lagos State, Nigeria”. Cankaya University Journal of Science and Engineering 19, no. 2 (November 2022): 78-94.
EndNote Onitilo S, Danıel D (November 1, 2022) Mathematical Modeling and Simulation of Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Lagos State, Nigeria. Cankaya University Journal of Science and Engineering 19 2 78–94.
IEEE S. Onitilo and D. Danıel, “Mathematical Modeling and Simulation of Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Lagos State, Nigeria”, CUJSE, vol. 19, no. 2, pp. 78–94, 2022.
ISNAD Onitilo, Sefiu - Danıel, Deborah. “Mathematical Modeling and Simulation of Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Lagos State, Nigeria”. Cankaya University Journal of Science and Engineering 19/2 (November 2022), 78-94.
JAMA Onitilo S, Danıel D. Mathematical Modeling and Simulation of Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Lagos State, Nigeria. CUJSE. 2022;19:78–94.
MLA Onitilo, Sefiu and Deborah Danıel. “Mathematical Modeling and Simulation of Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Lagos State, Nigeria”. Cankaya University Journal of Science and Engineering, vol. 19, no. 2, 2022, pp. 78-94.
Vancouver Onitilo S, Danıel D. Mathematical Modeling and Simulation of Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Lagos State, Nigeria. CUJSE. 2022;19(2):78-94.