Research Article
BibTex RIS Cite

PANDEMİ GÖLGESİNDE BREXİT: BİRLEŞİK KRALLIK VE AVRUPA BİRLİĞİ EKONOMİLERİNE ETKİLERİ

Year 2022, Volume: 5 Issue: 1, 60 - 79, 21.01.2022
https://doi.org/10.33416/baybem.1017761

Abstract

Birleşik Krallık (BK)’ın Avrupa Birliğinden (AB) ayrılmasını nitelendirmek için kullanılan Brexit kavramı, siyasi etkilerinden daha çok yaratacağı ekonomik etkilerle tartışılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada taraflar arasında yürütülen müzakerelerde gündeme gelen çeşitli Brexit senaryoları ve anlaşmanın yapılmasıyla birlikte BK ve AB’de görülen ekonomik etkiler değerlendirilmiştir. Tüm senaryolarda çıkan ortak sonuç, Brexit’in hem BK hem de AB ekonomisini olumsuz etkileyeceği ancak BK ekonomisine olan olumsuz etkisinin AB ekonomisinde yaratacağı olumsuz etkiden daha fazla olacağı yönünde olmuştur. Çalışmada bu etkiler; Gayri Safi Yurt İçi Hasıla (GSYİH), Kişi Başına Düşen Milli Gelir, Dış Ticaret ve Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar açısından analiz edilmiştir. Müzakereler sonunda BK ve AB arasında imzalanan Serbest Ticaret Anlaşmasının yürürlüğe girmesiyle birlikte dış ticarette büyük aksamalar ve düşüşler meydana gelmiştir. Ayrıca anlaşmanın ilk aylarında özellikle BK’nın GSYİH oranında azalma meydana gelirken AB’nin BK’daki yatırım oranında ve emek göçünde de düşüşler yaşanmıştır. Ancak 2020 yılı başında başlayan ve Büyük Buhrandan sonra görülen en büyük ekonomik kriz olarak nitelendirilen Covid-19 pandemisi, Brexit’in yarattığı olumsuz ekonomik etkilerin tam olarak tespit edilmesini zorlaştırmaktadır. Bu yüzden Brexit’in ekonomik etkilerinin uzun vadede daha net bir şekilde ortaya çıkacağı tahmin edilmektedir.

References

  • Arnorsson, A. ve Zoega, G. (2016). On the causes of brexit, CESifo Working Paper, No. 6056, Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich.
  • Bisciari, P. (2019). A Survey of the Long-term Impact of Brexit on the UK and the EU27 Economies, National Bank of Belgium Working Paper Document, No.366.
  • Boyle, C. (2021). Just what is the UK’s problem with Europe? www.cnbc.com/2015/05/27/why-would-the-uk-want-to-leave-the-eu.html. 27 Mayıs 2021.
  • Center for European Reform Bulletina. (2021, 12 Mart). The cost of Brexit, January 2021: The end of transition edition. by John Springford.
  • Center for European Reform Bulletinb. (2021, 21 Temmuz). The cost of Brexit: May 2021. by John Springford.
  • Choi, H.S, , Jansson, T., Matthews, A. ve Mittenzwei, Klaus (2021). European agriculture after Brexit: Does anyone benefit from the divorce?. Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 72, No. 1, 3–24. doi: 10.1111/1477-9552.12396.
  • Day, H.E. (2018). Brexit: The Causes and the Consequences, Claremont-UC Undergraduate Research Conference on the European Union: Vol. 2018, Article 5. DOI: 10.5642/urceu.201801.05.
  • Dhingra, S., Huang, H., Ottaviano, G., Pessoa, J.P., Sampson, T. ve Reenen, J.V. (2017). “The Costs and Benefits of Leaving the EU: Trade Effects”, Economic Policy, 32(92), 651-705.
  • Dhingra, S. ve Sampson, T. (2019). Brexit Economics, Centre for Economic Performans London School of Economics and Political Science, EA 048, London.
  • Emerson, M., Busse, M., Di, S.M., Gros, D. & Pelkmans, J. (2017). An Assessment of the Economic Impact of Brexit on the EU27, European Parliament Policy Department A: Economic and Scientific Policy.
  • European Commission (2021). The EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement. www.ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/relations-non-eu-countries/relations-united-kingdom/eu-uk-trade-and-cooperation-agreement_en.
  • Foreign and Commonwealth Office (2008). Consolidated text of the EU treaties as amended by the treaty of Lisbon. London.
  • Greater London Authority [GLA] (2018). Preparing for brexit, 2018, Cambridge Econmetrics. London.
  • Harari, D. (2020). End of brexit transition period: Economic impact. House of Common Library, Briefing Paper No. 9096.
  • Hassan, T.A., Hollander, S., Lent, L. & Tahoun, A. (2020). The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty, NBER Working paper Series, 26609.
  • Her Majesty Government (2018). EU Exit: Long term Economic Analysis.
  • Hope, M. (2019). The Economic Impact of Brexit on London, GLA Economics. London.
  • Koecklin, M.T. (2021). How are Covid-19 and Brexit affecting the products that UK firms trade? Economics Observatory.
  • Latorre, M.C., Olekseyuk, Z., Yonezawa H. & Robinson, S. (2019). Brexit: Everyone Loses, but Britain Loses the Most, Peterson Instıtute for International Economics Working Paper, 19-5.
  • Lyon, J.D. ve Dhingra, S. (2021). The impacts of Covid-19 and Brexit on the UK economy: early evidence in 2021. Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science, No.021.
  • Marshall, J., Jack, M.T. & Jones, N. (2021). The end of the brexit transition period. Was the UK prepared?. Institute for Government, March 2021.
  • Mion G. ve Ponattu D. (2019). Estimating the impact of brexit on European countries and regions, Policy Paper, Bertelsmann Stiftung.
  • National Institute of Economic and Social Research [NIESR]. (2021). National Institute UK Economic Outlook Brexit Britain in Covid Recovery Ward, February 2021, Series A. No.1.
  • Office for National Statisticsa [ONSa] (2021). The impacts of EU exit and the coronavirus on UK trade in goods, 25 Mayıs 2021.
  • Office for National Statisticsb [ONSb] (2021). The impacts of EU exit and the coronavirus (Covid-19) on UK trade in services:July 2021, 27 Temmuz 2021.
  • Reenen, J. (2020, 22 Ekim). The cost of Brexit is likely to be more than double that of covid-it must be delayed. https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020/10/22/ The cost of Brexit is likely to be more than double that of COVID – it must be delayed, LSE BREXIT.
  • Stetovic, M. (2018). Economic Impacts of Brexit to EU27 and UK. Industrija, Vol.46, No.2.
  • Syrrakos, D. (2021). An evaluation of the EU-UK free trade agreement. Future Economies Research and Policy Papers, 14, Manchester Metropolitan University.
  • Tetlow, G. ve Stojanovic, A. (2018). Understanding the economic impact of brexit, Institute for Government. London.
  • Walker, N. (2021). Brexit timeline: events leading to the UK’s exit from the European Union, House of Commons Library Briefing Paper No.7960.

BREXIT IN THE SHADOW OF PANDEMIC: THE IMPACTS ON THE ECONOMIES OF THE UNITED KINGDOM AND THE EUROPEAN UNION

Year 2022, Volume: 5 Issue: 1, 60 - 79, 21.01.2022
https://doi.org/10.33416/baybem.1017761

Abstract

The concept of Brexit, which is used to characterize the departure of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU), is discussed with its economic effects rather than its political effects. In this study, various Brexit scenarios that came to the agenda in the negotiations between the parties and the economic effects in the UK and the EU with the conclusion of the agreement were evaluated. The common result in all scenarios is that Brexit will negatively affect both the UK and the EU economy, but the negative impact on the UK economy will be greater than the negative impact on the EU economy. These effects in the study is analyzed in terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Per Capita National Income, Foreign Trade and Foreign Direct Investments. With the entry into force of the Free Trade Agreement signed between the UK and the EU at the end of the negotiations, major disruptions and decreases occurred in foreign trade. In addition, in the first months of the agreement, there was a decrease in the UK's GDP ratio, while there were also decreases in the EU's investment rate and labor migration in the UK. However, the Covid-19 pandemic, which started at the beginning of 2020 and is described as the biggest economic crisis after the Great Depression, makes it difficult to fully detect the negative economic effects of Brexit. Therefore, it is estimated that the economic effects of Brexit will emerge more clearly in the long run.

References

  • Arnorsson, A. ve Zoega, G. (2016). On the causes of brexit, CESifo Working Paper, No. 6056, Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich.
  • Bisciari, P. (2019). A Survey of the Long-term Impact of Brexit on the UK and the EU27 Economies, National Bank of Belgium Working Paper Document, No.366.
  • Boyle, C. (2021). Just what is the UK’s problem with Europe? www.cnbc.com/2015/05/27/why-would-the-uk-want-to-leave-the-eu.html. 27 Mayıs 2021.
  • Center for European Reform Bulletina. (2021, 12 Mart). The cost of Brexit, January 2021: The end of transition edition. by John Springford.
  • Center for European Reform Bulletinb. (2021, 21 Temmuz). The cost of Brexit: May 2021. by John Springford.
  • Choi, H.S, , Jansson, T., Matthews, A. ve Mittenzwei, Klaus (2021). European agriculture after Brexit: Does anyone benefit from the divorce?. Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 72, No. 1, 3–24. doi: 10.1111/1477-9552.12396.
  • Day, H.E. (2018). Brexit: The Causes and the Consequences, Claremont-UC Undergraduate Research Conference on the European Union: Vol. 2018, Article 5. DOI: 10.5642/urceu.201801.05.
  • Dhingra, S., Huang, H., Ottaviano, G., Pessoa, J.P., Sampson, T. ve Reenen, J.V. (2017). “The Costs and Benefits of Leaving the EU: Trade Effects”, Economic Policy, 32(92), 651-705.
  • Dhingra, S. ve Sampson, T. (2019). Brexit Economics, Centre for Economic Performans London School of Economics and Political Science, EA 048, London.
  • Emerson, M., Busse, M., Di, S.M., Gros, D. & Pelkmans, J. (2017). An Assessment of the Economic Impact of Brexit on the EU27, European Parliament Policy Department A: Economic and Scientific Policy.
  • European Commission (2021). The EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement. www.ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/relations-non-eu-countries/relations-united-kingdom/eu-uk-trade-and-cooperation-agreement_en.
  • Foreign and Commonwealth Office (2008). Consolidated text of the EU treaties as amended by the treaty of Lisbon. London.
  • Greater London Authority [GLA] (2018). Preparing for brexit, 2018, Cambridge Econmetrics. London.
  • Harari, D. (2020). End of brexit transition period: Economic impact. House of Common Library, Briefing Paper No. 9096.
  • Hassan, T.A., Hollander, S., Lent, L. & Tahoun, A. (2020). The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty, NBER Working paper Series, 26609.
  • Her Majesty Government (2018). EU Exit: Long term Economic Analysis.
  • Hope, M. (2019). The Economic Impact of Brexit on London, GLA Economics. London.
  • Koecklin, M.T. (2021). How are Covid-19 and Brexit affecting the products that UK firms trade? Economics Observatory.
  • Latorre, M.C., Olekseyuk, Z., Yonezawa H. & Robinson, S. (2019). Brexit: Everyone Loses, but Britain Loses the Most, Peterson Instıtute for International Economics Working Paper, 19-5.
  • Lyon, J.D. ve Dhingra, S. (2021). The impacts of Covid-19 and Brexit on the UK economy: early evidence in 2021. Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science, No.021.
  • Marshall, J., Jack, M.T. & Jones, N. (2021). The end of the brexit transition period. Was the UK prepared?. Institute for Government, March 2021.
  • Mion G. ve Ponattu D. (2019). Estimating the impact of brexit on European countries and regions, Policy Paper, Bertelsmann Stiftung.
  • National Institute of Economic and Social Research [NIESR]. (2021). National Institute UK Economic Outlook Brexit Britain in Covid Recovery Ward, February 2021, Series A. No.1.
  • Office for National Statisticsa [ONSa] (2021). The impacts of EU exit and the coronavirus on UK trade in goods, 25 Mayıs 2021.
  • Office for National Statisticsb [ONSb] (2021). The impacts of EU exit and the coronavirus (Covid-19) on UK trade in services:July 2021, 27 Temmuz 2021.
  • Reenen, J. (2020, 22 Ekim). The cost of Brexit is likely to be more than double that of covid-it must be delayed. https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020/10/22/ The cost of Brexit is likely to be more than double that of COVID – it must be delayed, LSE BREXIT.
  • Stetovic, M. (2018). Economic Impacts of Brexit to EU27 and UK. Industrija, Vol.46, No.2.
  • Syrrakos, D. (2021). An evaluation of the EU-UK free trade agreement. Future Economies Research and Policy Papers, 14, Manchester Metropolitan University.
  • Tetlow, G. ve Stojanovic, A. (2018). Understanding the economic impact of brexit, Institute for Government. London.
  • Walker, N. (2021). Brexit timeline: events leading to the UK’s exit from the European Union, House of Commons Library Briefing Paper No.7960.
There are 30 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Musa Keskin 0000-0001-8693-2682

Publication Date January 21, 2022
Submission Date November 2, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2022 Volume: 5 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Keskin, M. (2022). PANDEMİ GÖLGESİNDE BREXİT: BİRLEŞİK KRALLIK VE AVRUPA BİRLİĞİ EKONOMİLERİNE ETKİLERİ. İşletme Ekonomi Ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(1), 60-79. https://doi.org/10.33416/baybem.1017761

Journal of Business, Economics and Management uses Creative Commons Atıf 4.0 Licence.

Indexed: Index Copernicus, DOAJ, Crossref, CiteFactor, EBSCO, Google Scholar, ASSOS, OJOP