Research Article
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Davranışsal Finans Bağlamında Kendine Aşırı Güven, Kontrol Yanılsaması ve İyimserlik Önyargılarının Ölçülmesi: Üniversite Öğrencileri Örneği

Year 2020, Volume: 8 Issue: 4, 1315 - 1322, 24.08.2020

Bilgehan Tekin

https://doi.org/10.18506/anemon.615003

Abstract

Davranışsal finans, piyasa anomalilerinin yanı sıra bu anımalilere neden olan önyargıların incelenmesini de konu almaktadır. Literatüre bakıldığında kişilerin karar süreçleri üzerinde etkisi olduğu belirtilen çok sayıda önyargıdan bahsedildiği görülmektedir. Bunlar arasında üzerinde ayrıca durulan önyargıların ise kendine aşırı güven, kontrol yanılsaması ve aşırı iyimserlik olduğu dikkati çekmektedir. Bu çalışmada bu üç önyargının ölçülmesini hedefleyen ifadelerden oluşan ölçeklerin Türkiye’de üniversite öğrencileri üzerindeki güvenilirliği ve geçerliliği test edilmiştir. Önyargıları ölçülmesini hedefleyen ve bu çalışmada kullanılan ölçeğin ilk halinde 19 madde yer almaktadır. Öğrencilerin demografik bilgilerini de içeren anket formu farklı üniversitelerde öğrenim gören toplam 522 öğrenciye uygulanmıştır. Yapılan analizler sonucunda ölçeğin son halinin Cronbach Alfa değerinin 0,825 olduğu ve ölçekte yer alan ifadelerin 4 faktör altında toplandığı tespit edilmiştir.

Keywords

Davranışsal Önyargılar Kendine Aşırı Güven Kontrol Yanılsaması İyimserlik Ölçme

References

  • Baker, M., & Wurgler, J. (2004). A catering theory of dividends. The Journal of Finance, 59(3), 1125-1165.
  • Baker, M., & Wurgler, J. (2006). Investor sentiment and the cross‐section of stock returns. The Journal of Finance, 61(4), 1645-1680.
  • Baker, M., & Wurgler, J. (2011). Behavioral corporate finance: An updated survey (No. w17333). National Bureau of Economic Research. (Erişim:10.03.2018), http://www.nber.org/papers/w17333.pdf
  • Barberis, N. & Huang, M. (2001). Mental accounting, loss aversion, and individual stock returns. The Journal of Finance, 56(4), 1247-1292.
  • Barberis, N., & Huang, M. (2006). The loss aversion/narrow framing approach to the equity premium puzzle (No. w12378). National Bureau of Economic Research. (Erişim:10.04.2018), https://www.nber.org/papers/w12378
  • Benartzi, S., & Thaler, R. H. (1993). Myopic loss aversion and the equity premium puzzle (No. w4369). National Bureau of Economic Research. (Erişim:21.04.2018), http://www.nber.org/papers/w4369.pdf
  • Benos, A. V. (1998). Aggressiveness and survival of overconfident traders. Journal of Financial Markets, 1(3), 353-383.
  • Bouwman, C. H. (2009). Managerial optimism and the market’s reaction to dividend changes. Case Western Reserve University Working Paper. (Erişim: 15.03.2018) http://web.mit.edu/cbouwman/www/downloads/BouwmanOptimismAndDivChanges.pdf
  • Caballé, J., & Sákovics, J. (2003). Speculating against an overconfident market. Journal of Financial Markets, 6(2), 199-225.
  • Campbell, T. C., Gallmeyer, M., Johnson, S. A., Rutherford, J., & Stanley, B. W. (2011). CEO optimism and forced turnover. Journal of Financial Economics, 101: 695-712.
  • Campbell, W. K., Goodie, A. S., & Foster, J. D. (2004). Narcissism, confidence, and risk attitude. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 17(4), 297-311.
  • Charness, G., & Gneezy, U. (2010). Portfolio choice and risk attitudes: An experiment. Economic Inquiry, 48(1), 133-146.
  • Chitra, K. & Jayashree, T., (2014), Does Demographic Profile Create a Difference in the Investor Behavior? The International Journal Of Business & Management 2 (7)
  • Conger, R. F. & Wolstein, Ch. R., (2004), Managing overconfidence in pricing. Emphasis, (2), 10 – 13.
  • Daniel, K., Hirshleifer, D., Subrahmanyam, A. (1998). A theory of overconfidence, self-attribution, and security market under and over reaction. J. Finance, (53), 1839–1885.
  • De Bondt, W. F. & Thaler, R. (1985). Does the stock market overreact? The Journal of finance, 40(3), 793-805.
  • Eisenbach, T. M., & Schmalz, M. C. (2015). Anxiety, overconfidence, and excessive risk taking. FRB of New York Staff Report, (711).
  • Field, A. (2000). Discovering Statistics using SPSS for Windows. London:Thousand Oaks, New Delhi: Sage publications
  • Gervais, S., Heaton, J. B. & Odean, T. (2002). The positive role of overconfidence and optimism in investment policy. (Erişim: 18.04.2018), http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.201.474&rep=rep1&type=pdf
  • Glaser, M. & Weber, M. (2007). Overconfidence and trading volume. The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, 32(1), 1-36.
  • Graham, J. R., Harvey, C. R. & Puri, M. (2007). Managerial attitudes and corporate actions. (Erişim: 23.05.2018), https://weatherhead.case.edu/departments/banking-and-finance/Documents/Puripaper.pdf
  • Heaton, J. B. (2002). Managerial optimism and corporate finance. Financial management, 31(2), 33-45.
  • Hens, T. & Bachmann, K. (2008). Behavioural finance for private banking. Chichester, West Sussex: John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
  • Huang, J., Padmanabhan, K. & Collins, O. M. (2011). The sampling theorem with constant amplitude variable width pulses. Circuits and Systems I: Regular Papers, IEEE Transactions on, 58(6), 1178-1190.
  • Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 263-291.
  • Kalaycı, Ş . (2005). Spss Uygulamalı Çok Değişkenli İstatistik Teknikleri, Ankara: Asil Yayınevi
  • Menkhoff, L., Schmidt, U., & Brozynski, T. (2006). The impact of experience on risk taking, overconfidence, and herding of fund managers: Complementary survey evidence. European Economic Review, 50(7), 1753-1766.
  • Metilda, J. M. (2015). Role of Illusion of Control Bias in Herding Behaviour. Adarsh Journal of Management Research, 8(1), 1-8.
  • Michailova, J. (2010). Overconfidence and bubbles in experimental asset markets. (Erişim: 05.04.2018), https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/30579/1/MPRA_paper_30579.pdf
  • Montier, J. (2007), Behavioural Investing: A Practitioner's Guide to Applying Behavioural Finance, John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Published
  • Nosić, A., & Weber, M. (2010). How riskily do I invest? The role of risk attitudes, risk perceptions, and overconfidence. Decision Analysis, 7(3), 282-301.
  • Odean, T., (1998). Volume, volatility, price and profit when all traders are above average. J. Finance, (53), 1887–1934.
  • Oskamp, S. (1965). Overconfidence in case-study judgments. Journal of consulting psychology, 29(3), 261.
  • Polat, Y. & Kayaalp, G. T., (2012), Hayvancılık Denemesinde Faktör Analizi Yöntemlerinin Karşılaştırmalı Olarak İncelenmesi, Ç.Ü. Fen ve Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, 28 (5), 39-48.
  • Pompian, M. (2012). Behavioural Finance and Investor Types: Managing Behaviour to Make Better Investment Decisions. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
  • Riaz, T. & Iqbal, H., (2015) Impact of Overconfidence, Illusion of control, Self Control and Optimism Bias on Investors Decision Making; Evidence from Developing Markets Research, Journal of Finance and Accounting 6(11).
  • Scheier, M. F., Carver, C. S., & Bridges, M. W. (1994). Distinguishing optimism from neuroticism (and trait anxiety, self-mastery, and self-esteem): a reevaluation of the Life Orientation Test. Journal of personality and social psychology, 67(6), 1063.
  • Scheinkman, J. A. & Xiong, W. (2003). Overconfidence and speculative bubbles. Journal of political Economy, 111(6), 1183-1220.
  • Schmidt, U., & Traub, S. (2002). An experimental test of loss aversion. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 25(3), 233-249.
  • Schwenk, C.R. (1984). Cognitive simplification processes in strategic decision-making. Strategic Management Journal 5, 111–128.
  • Sharma, M., & Vasakarla, V. (2013). An empirical study of gender differences in risk aversion and over confidence in investment decision making. International Journal of Application or Innovation in Engineering & Management, 2(7), 497-504.
  • Shefrin, H. & Statman, M. (2000). Behavioral portfolio theory. Journal of financial and quantitative analysis, 35(02), 127-151.
  • Shiller, R. J. (2000), Irrational Exuberance, Princeton, N.J.: Princeton Univ. Press.
  • Svenson, O. (1981). Are we all less risky and more skillful than our fellow drivers? Acta Psychologica, 47(2), 143-148.
  • Tavşancıl, E. (2010). Tutumların ölçülmesi ve SPSS ile veri analizi. Ankara: Nobel Yayın Dağıtım
  • Taylor, S. E. ve Brown, J. D. (1988). Illusion and well-being: a social psychological perspective on mental health. Psychological bulletin, 103(2), 193.
  • Tekin, B. (2019), Kendine Aşırı Güven ve Ölçme Yöntemleri: Davranışsal Finans Kapsamında Bir Literatür İncelemesi. Anemon Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 7(2), 293-308.
  • Tekin, B. (2016). Beklenen Fayda ve Beklenti Teorileri Baglaminda Geleneksel Finans-Davranissal Finans Ayrimi, Journal of Accounting, Finance and Auditing Studies, 2(4), 75.
  • Trinugroho, I. ve Sembel, R. (2011). Overconfidence and Excessive Trading Behavior: An Experimental Study. International Journal of Business and Management, 6(7), 147.
  • Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1991). Loss aversion in riskless choice: A reference-dependent model. The quarterly journal of economics, 1039-1061.
  • Weinstein, N. D. (1980). Unrealistic optimism about future life events. Journal of personality and social psychology, 39(5), 806.

Measurement of Overconfidence, Illusion of Control and Optimism in the Context of Behavioral Finance: Case of University Students

Year 2020, Volume: 8 Issue: 4, 1315 - 1322, 24.08.2020

Bilgehan Tekin

https://doi.org/10.18506/anemon.615003

Abstract

Behavioral finance is concerned with analyzing market anomalies as well as biases that cause these anomalies. There are many biases that are stated to have an effect on the decision processes of individuals in behavioural finance literature. It is noteworthy that the biases emphasized among them are overconfidence, illusion of control and extreme optimism. This study aimed at measuring the scale that consists of statements about these three biases on college students in Turkey and reliability and validity of this scale was tested. There are 19 items in the first version of the scale that aims to measure biases and used in this study. The questionnaire, including the demographic information of the students, was applied to a total of 522 students studying at different universities. As a result of the analyzes, it was determined that the final version of the scale Cronbach's Alpha value is 0.825 and the items in the scale were collected under 4 factors.

Keywords

Behavioral biases Overconfidence The İllusion of Control Optimism Measurement

References

  • Baker, M., & Wurgler, J. (2004). A catering theory of dividends. The Journal of Finance, 59(3), 1125-1165.
  • Baker, M., & Wurgler, J. (2006). Investor sentiment and the cross‐section of stock returns. The Journal of Finance, 61(4), 1645-1680.
  • Baker, M., & Wurgler, J. (2011). Behavioral corporate finance: An updated survey (No. w17333). National Bureau of Economic Research. (Erişim:10.03.2018), http://www.nber.org/papers/w17333.pdf
  • Barberis, N. & Huang, M. (2001). Mental accounting, loss aversion, and individual stock returns. The Journal of Finance, 56(4), 1247-1292.
  • Barberis, N., & Huang, M. (2006). The loss aversion/narrow framing approach to the equity premium puzzle (No. w12378). National Bureau of Economic Research. (Erişim:10.04.2018), https://www.nber.org/papers/w12378
  • Benartzi, S., & Thaler, R. H. (1993). Myopic loss aversion and the equity premium puzzle (No. w4369). National Bureau of Economic Research. (Erişim:21.04.2018), http://www.nber.org/papers/w4369.pdf
  • Benos, A. V. (1998). Aggressiveness and survival of overconfident traders. Journal of Financial Markets, 1(3), 353-383.
  • Bouwman, C. H. (2009). Managerial optimism and the market’s reaction to dividend changes. Case Western Reserve University Working Paper. (Erişim: 15.03.2018) http://web.mit.edu/cbouwman/www/downloads/BouwmanOptimismAndDivChanges.pdf
  • Caballé, J., & Sákovics, J. (2003). Speculating against an overconfident market. Journal of Financial Markets, 6(2), 199-225.
  • Campbell, T. C., Gallmeyer, M., Johnson, S. A., Rutherford, J., & Stanley, B. W. (2011). CEO optimism and forced turnover. Journal of Financial Economics, 101: 695-712.
  • Campbell, W. K., Goodie, A. S., & Foster, J. D. (2004). Narcissism, confidence, and risk attitude. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 17(4), 297-311.
  • Charness, G., & Gneezy, U. (2010). Portfolio choice and risk attitudes: An experiment. Economic Inquiry, 48(1), 133-146.
  • Chitra, K. & Jayashree, T., (2014), Does Demographic Profile Create a Difference in the Investor Behavior? The International Journal Of Business & Management 2 (7)
  • Conger, R. F. & Wolstein, Ch. R., (2004), Managing overconfidence in pricing. Emphasis, (2), 10 – 13.
  • Daniel, K., Hirshleifer, D., Subrahmanyam, A. (1998). A theory of overconfidence, self-attribution, and security market under and over reaction. J. Finance, (53), 1839–1885.
  • De Bondt, W. F. & Thaler, R. (1985). Does the stock market overreact? The Journal of finance, 40(3), 793-805.
  • Eisenbach, T. M., & Schmalz, M. C. (2015). Anxiety, overconfidence, and excessive risk taking. FRB of New York Staff Report, (711).
  • Field, A. (2000). Discovering Statistics using SPSS for Windows. London:Thousand Oaks, New Delhi: Sage publications
  • Gervais, S., Heaton, J. B. & Odean, T. (2002). The positive role of overconfidence and optimism in investment policy. (Erişim: 18.04.2018), http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.201.474&rep=rep1&type=pdf
  • Glaser, M. & Weber, M. (2007). Overconfidence and trading volume. The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, 32(1), 1-36.
  • Graham, J. R., Harvey, C. R. & Puri, M. (2007). Managerial attitudes and corporate actions. (Erişim: 23.05.2018), https://weatherhead.case.edu/departments/banking-and-finance/Documents/Puripaper.pdf
  • Heaton, J. B. (2002). Managerial optimism and corporate finance. Financial management, 31(2), 33-45.
  • Hens, T. & Bachmann, K. (2008). Behavioural finance for private banking. Chichester, West Sussex: John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
  • Huang, J., Padmanabhan, K. & Collins, O. M. (2011). The sampling theorem with constant amplitude variable width pulses. Circuits and Systems I: Regular Papers, IEEE Transactions on, 58(6), 1178-1190.
  • Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 263-291.
  • Kalaycı, Ş . (2005). Spss Uygulamalı Çok Değişkenli İstatistik Teknikleri, Ankara: Asil Yayınevi
  • Menkhoff, L., Schmidt, U., & Brozynski, T. (2006). The impact of experience on risk taking, overconfidence, and herding of fund managers: Complementary survey evidence. European Economic Review, 50(7), 1753-1766.
  • Metilda, J. M. (2015). Role of Illusion of Control Bias in Herding Behaviour. Adarsh Journal of Management Research, 8(1), 1-8.
  • Michailova, J. (2010). Overconfidence and bubbles in experimental asset markets. (Erişim: 05.04.2018), https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/30579/1/MPRA_paper_30579.pdf
  • Montier, J. (2007), Behavioural Investing: A Practitioner's Guide to Applying Behavioural Finance, John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Published
  • Nosić, A., & Weber, M. (2010). How riskily do I invest? The role of risk attitudes, risk perceptions, and overconfidence. Decision Analysis, 7(3), 282-301.
  • Odean, T., (1998). Volume, volatility, price and profit when all traders are above average. J. Finance, (53), 1887–1934.
  • Oskamp, S. (1965). Overconfidence in case-study judgments. Journal of consulting psychology, 29(3), 261.
  • Polat, Y. & Kayaalp, G. T., (2012), Hayvancılık Denemesinde Faktör Analizi Yöntemlerinin Karşılaştırmalı Olarak İncelenmesi, Ç.Ü. Fen ve Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, 28 (5), 39-48.
  • Pompian, M. (2012). Behavioural Finance and Investor Types: Managing Behaviour to Make Better Investment Decisions. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
  • Riaz, T. & Iqbal, H., (2015) Impact of Overconfidence, Illusion of control, Self Control and Optimism Bias on Investors Decision Making; Evidence from Developing Markets Research, Journal of Finance and Accounting 6(11).
  • Scheier, M. F., Carver, C. S., & Bridges, M. W. (1994). Distinguishing optimism from neuroticism (and trait anxiety, self-mastery, and self-esteem): a reevaluation of the Life Orientation Test. Journal of personality and social psychology, 67(6), 1063.
  • Scheinkman, J. A. & Xiong, W. (2003). Overconfidence and speculative bubbles. Journal of political Economy, 111(6), 1183-1220.
  • Schmidt, U., & Traub, S. (2002). An experimental test of loss aversion. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 25(3), 233-249.
  • Schwenk, C.R. (1984). Cognitive simplification processes in strategic decision-making. Strategic Management Journal 5, 111–128.
  • Sharma, M., & Vasakarla, V. (2013). An empirical study of gender differences in risk aversion and over confidence in investment decision making. International Journal of Application or Innovation in Engineering & Management, 2(7), 497-504.
  • Shefrin, H. & Statman, M. (2000). Behavioral portfolio theory. Journal of financial and quantitative analysis, 35(02), 127-151.
  • Shiller, R. J. (2000), Irrational Exuberance, Princeton, N.J.: Princeton Univ. Press.
  • Svenson, O. (1981). Are we all less risky and more skillful than our fellow drivers? Acta Psychologica, 47(2), 143-148.
  • Tavşancıl, E. (2010). Tutumların ölçülmesi ve SPSS ile veri analizi. Ankara: Nobel Yayın Dağıtım
  • Taylor, S. E. ve Brown, J. D. (1988). Illusion and well-being: a social psychological perspective on mental health. Psychological bulletin, 103(2), 193.
  • Tekin, B. (2019), Kendine Aşırı Güven ve Ölçme Yöntemleri: Davranışsal Finans Kapsamında Bir Literatür İncelemesi. Anemon Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 7(2), 293-308.
  • Tekin, B. (2016). Beklenen Fayda ve Beklenti Teorileri Baglaminda Geleneksel Finans-Davranissal Finans Ayrimi, Journal of Accounting, Finance and Auditing Studies, 2(4), 75.
  • Trinugroho, I. ve Sembel, R. (2011). Overconfidence and Excessive Trading Behavior: An Experimental Study. International Journal of Business and Management, 6(7), 147.
  • Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1991). Loss aversion in riskless choice: A reference-dependent model. The quarterly journal of economics, 1039-1061.
  • Weinstein, N. D. (1980). Unrealistic optimism about future life events. Journal of personality and social psychology, 39(5), 806.
There are 51 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Bilgehan Tekin 0000-0002-4926-3317

Publication Date August 24, 2020
Acceptance Date April 28, 2020
Published in Issue Year 2020 Volume: 8 Issue: 4

Cite

APA Tekin, B. (2020). Measurement of Overconfidence, Illusion of Control and Optimism in the Context of Behavioral Finance: Case of University Students. Anemon Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 8(4), 1315-1322. https://doi.org/10.18506/anemon.615003
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