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POVERTY AND MCKINNON'S COMPLEMENTARY HYPOTHESIS IN N 11 COUNTRIES: PANEL CAUSES ANALYSIS

Year 2023, Volume: 24 Issue: 4, 81 - 104, 27.12.2023

Melahat Batu Ağırkaya

https://doi.org/10.53443/anadoluibfd.1224768

Abstract

The current study aims to test the effect of "McKinnon's complementarity hypothesis" advocated by McKinnon (1973) and Shaw (1973) on poverty for N11 countries and to reveal the results. The McKinnon complementarity hypothesis questions the relationships between money demand, investments, and real interest rates. The study sample comprises the N11 countries' 2000-2020 data. The study analyzed the period between 2000 and 2020 using Gengenbach et al. (2016) panel cointegration and DOLS-MG estimator. Emirmahmutoğlu and Köse (2011) Granger causality test analysis were applied for the short-term causality relationship between the variables. Panel cointegration test results showed cointegrated variables in the long run. According to DOLS-MG estimation results, financial deepening positively affects human development in the long run. In conclusion, the study has revealed that increasing financial deepening in the long term contributes to human development and poverty reduction in some N11 countries such as Turkiye, South Korea, and Pakistan. In the short run, while financial deepening and human development in Indonesia have a reciprocal causal relationship, financial growth in Turkiye and Vietnam has a one-way causal relationship to human development. The study found that the McKinnon Hypothesis was valid. For other countries, the causality test results were insignificant.

Keywords

Financial Deepening Economic Growth Poverty Financial System Panel Causality

References

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N 11 ÜLKELERİNDE YOKSULLUK VE MCKİNNON TAMAMLAYICILIK HİPOTEZİ: PANEL NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ

Year 2023, Volume: 24 Issue: 4, 81 - 104, 27.12.2023

Melahat Batu Ağırkaya

https://doi.org/10.53443/anadoluibfd.1224768

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı McKinnon (1973) ve Shaw (1973) tarafından ortaya konulan McKinnon tamamlayıcılık hipotezini N11 ülkeleri için yoksulluk üzerinde etkisini test etmek ve sonuçlarını ortaya koymaktır. McKinnon tamamlayıcılık hipotezi, para talebi, yatırımlar ve reel faizler arasındaki ilişkileri sorgulamaktadır. Çalışma örneklemi 2000-2020 döneminde N11 ülkelerine ait verilerden oluşturulmuştur. Araştırmada serilerin 2000-2020 arasındaki dönemi Gengenbach, Urbain ve Westerlund (2016) panel eşbütünleşme ve DOLS-MG tahmincileri kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Değişkenler arasındaki kısa dönem nedensellik ilişkisi ise Emirmahmutoğlu ve Köse (2011) Granger nedensellik test analizi uygulanmıştır. Panel eşbütünleşme testi sonuçlarında değişkenlerin uzun dönemde eşbütünleşik olduğunu göstermiştir. DOLS-MG tahmini sonuçlarına göre ise uzun dönemde finansal derinleşme insani gelişmeyi pozitif yönlü etkilemektedir. Çalışma sonucunda; uzun dönemde artan finansal derinleşme N11 ülkelerinden Türkiye, Güney Kore ve Pakistan’da insani gelişmeyi desteklemekte, yoksulluğun azaltılmasına katkı sağlamaktadır. Kısa dönemde ise Endonezya’da finansal derinleşme ve insani gelişme karşılıklı bir nedensellik ilişkisine sahipken, Türkiye ve Vietnam’da finansal gelişimin yaşanması kısa dönemde insani gelişmenin tek yönlü nedenselidir. McKinnon Hipotezinin geçerli olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Diğer ülkeler için ise nedensellik testi sonuçları anlamsız bulunmuştur.

Keywords

Fianasal Derinleşme Ekonomik Büyüme Yoksulluk Fianasal Sistem Panel Nedensellik

References

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  • Abosedra, S., Shahbaz, M., & Nawaz, K. (2016). Modeling causality between financial deepening and poverty reduction in Egypt. Social Indicators Research, 126, 955-969. doi: 10.1007/s11205-015-0929-2
  • Abramova, M., Artemenko , D., & Krinichansky, K. (2022). Transmission channels between financial deepening and economic growth: Econometric analysis comprising monetary factors. Mathematics, 10(242), 2-27. doi: 10.3390/math10020242
  • Abu-Bader, S., & Abu-Qarn, A. (2008). Financial development and economic growth: The Egyptian experience. Journal of Policy Modeling, 30, 887–898. doi: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2007.02.001
  • Aghion, P., & Bolton, P. (1997). A Theory of trickle-down growth and development. The Review of Economic Studies, 64(2), 151-172.
  • Akkay, R. (2010). Gelişmekte olan piyasalarda finansal gelişme ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği. İstanbul Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İstanbul.
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  • Bagehot, W. (1873). A description of the money market (4. Baskı.). London: Henry S. King & Co.
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  • Beck, T., Levine, R., & Loayza, N. (2000). Finance and the sources of growth. Journal of Financial Economics, 58(1-2), 261-300. doi: 10.1016/S0304-3932(00)00017-9
  • Belen, M., & Karamelikli, H. (2016). Finansal gelişme ve yoksulluğun azalması arasındaki ilişki: Ampirik bir inceleme. Bolu Abant İzzet Baysal Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 16(1), 125-141. doi: 10.11616/basbed.vi.455783
  • Best, A., Francis, B., & Robinson, C. (2017). Financial deepening and economic growth in Jamaica. Global Business Review, 18(1), 1-18. doi: 10.1177/0972150916666744
  • Bolarinwa, S., Adegboye, A., & Vo, X. (2021). Is there a nonlinear relationship between financial development and poverty in Africa. Journal of Economic Studies, 48(7), 1245-1266. doi: 10.1108/JES-10-2019-0486
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  • Clark, G., Dixon, A., & Monk, A. (2013). Sovereign wealth funds. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
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  • Demetriades, P., & Rousseau , P. (2016). The changing face of financial development. Economics Letters, 141, 87-90. doi: 10.1016/j.econlet.2016.02.009
  • Doğanay, M., & Değer, M. (2017). Yükselen piyasa ekonomilerinde doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve ihracat ilişkisi: Panel veri eşbütünleşme analizleri (1996-2014). Çankırı Karatekin University İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 7(2), 127-145. doi: 10.18074/ckuiibfd.345332
  • Eberhardt, M., & Bond, S. (2009). Cross-section dependence in nonstationary panel models: A novel estimator. University Library of Munich.
  • Eberhardta, M., & Teal, F. (2010). Productivity analysis in global manufacturing production. University of Oxford.
  • Ellahi, N. (2011). How development of finance contribute to poverty alleviation and growth: a time series application for Pakistan. African Journal of Business Management, 5(30), 12138-12143. doi: 10.5897/AJBM11.1623
  • Emirmahmutoglu, F., & Kose, N. (2011). Testing for Granger causality in heterogeneous mixed panels. Economic Modelling, 28(3), 870-876. doi: 10.1016/j.econmod.2010.10.018
  • Eschenbach, F. (2004). Finance and growth: A survey of the theoretical and empirical literature. Amsterdam and Rotterdam: Tinbergen Institute.
  • Fry, M. (1978). Money and capital or financial deepening in economic development? Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 10 (4), 464-475. doi: 10.1016/B978-0-08-024041-1.50014-4
  • Gençoğlu, P., Kuşkaya, S., & Büyüknalbant, T. (2020). Seçilmiş OECD ülkelerinde sağlık harcamalarının sürdürülebilirliğinin panel birim kök testleri ile değerlendirilmesi. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 75 (4), 1283-1297. doi: 10.33630/ausbf.498440
  • Gengenbach, C., Urbain, J., & Westerlund, J. (2016). Error correction testing inpanels with common stochastic trends. Journal Of Applied Econometrics, 31, 982-1004. doi: 10.1002/jae.2475
  • Goldsmith, R. (1969). Financial structure and development. New Haven: Yale University Press.
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Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Araştırma Makalesi
Authors

Melahat Batu Ağırkaya 0000-0002-8703-5622

Publication Date December 27, 2023
Submission Date December 26, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2023 Volume: 24 Issue: 4

Cite

APA Batu Ağırkaya, M. (2023). N 11 ÜLKELERİNDE YOKSULLUK VE MCKİNNON TAMAMLAYICILIK HİPOTEZİ: PANEL NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ. Anadolu Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 24(4), 81-104. https://doi.org/10.53443/anadoluibfd.1224768
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