Theoretical Article
BibTex RIS Cite

Pozitif Eğilimli Bir Philips Eğrisi Mümkün Mü?

Year 2023, Volume: 3 Issue: 2, 229 - 276, 18.10.2023
https://doi.org/10.59597/akademikaci.1340755

Abstract

Ekonomi literatüründe kapsam olarak en geniş konulardan biri enflasyon ve işsizlik kavramları ve bu kavramların birbiri arasındaki ilişkidir. İktisat tarihi boyunca farklı dönemlerde çoğu iktisatçı tarafından bu iki kavram arasındaki ilişki üzerine birçok hipotez ortaya atılmıştır. İktisat literatüründe enflasyon ve işsizlik ilişkisinin ampirik çerçevesi ilk kez 1958 yılında A.W.H. Phillips’in 1958 yılında kendi adını verdiği Philips eğrisi teorisiyle oluşturulmuş daha sonra R. G. Lipsey, P. Samuelson ve R. Solow, M. Friedman ve E. Phelps ve Robert. E. Lucas tarafından farklı dönemlerde teori geliştirilmiştir. M. Friedman, 1976 yılında Nobel Ekonomi Konferansı’nda sunumunu yaptığı çalışmasında Philips eğrisinin geçici de olsa belirli dönemlerde pozitif eğimli olabileceğini ifade etmiştir. Bu çalışma tıpkı M. Friedman’ın yaptığı gibi 1995-2019 yılları arasında seçili ülkeler için 5 yıllık dilimler halinde enflasyon ve işsizlik verilerinin ağırlıklı ortalamaları alınarak ampirik olarak incelenmiştir. Ampirik analizin bulguları seçili ülkeler ve ilgili dönemlerde enflasyon ve işsizlik arasında enflasyon ve işsizliğin yukarı ve aşağı yönlü olarak birlikte hareket ettiği, Philips eğrisinin ise negatif eğimli değil, pozitif eğimli olduğunu göstermektedir.

References

  • Büyükakın, Tahir (2008). Phillips Eğrisi: Yarım Yüzyıldır Bitmeyen Tartışma. İstanbul Üniversitesi Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi. No:39
  • Friedman, M. (1968) : “The Role of Monetary Policy”, American Eco¬nomic Review, Vol.58, No: 1, March, s. 1-17.
  • Friedman, M. (1976) : “Nobel Lecture : Inflation and Unemployment”, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 85, No : 3, June, s. 451-472.
  • Frisch, H. (1977), ‘Inflation Theory 1963–1975: A Second Generation Survey’, Journal of Economic Literature, December.
  • Frisch, Helmut. (1989). Enflasyon Teorileri. çev. Ertan Oktay ve Aslan Yiğidim. Elif Matbaacılık. Ankara.
  • Humphrey, Thomas M. (1986). From Trade-offs to Policy Ineffectiveness: A History of the Phillips Curve. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Publication. Virginia.
  • Klamer, Arjo (1985). The New Classical Macroeconomics. 2nd Ed. Whitstable Litho Ltd. Great Britain.
  • Leeson, R. (1997a) : “The Trade-off Interpretation of Phillips’s Dynamic Stabilisation Exercise”, Economica, 64, February, s. 155-171.
  • Leeson, R. (1997b) : “The Political Economy of the Inflation–Unemploy¬ment Trade-off ”, History of Political Economy 29:1, Spring, s. 117-156.
  • Lipsey, Richard G. (1960) “The Relation between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1862-1957: A Further Analysis.” Economica. Vol. 27. No. 105. ss. 1-31. Lucas, R.E. Jr. (1972a) : “Expectations and the Neutrality of Money”, Journal of Economic Theory, Vol. 4, No : 2, April, s. 103-124.
  • Lucas, R.E. Jr. (1972b) : “Econometric Testing of the Natural Rate Hypothesis”, in The New Classical Macroeconomics (1992), Vol. I, Ed. by K.D. Hoover, Aldershot, Edward Elgar, s. 123-132.
  • Lucas, R.E. Jr. (1973) : “Some International Evidence on Output-Infla¬tion Tradeoffs”, American Economic Review, Vol. LXIII, No : 3, June, s. 326-334.
  • Mankiw, N.G. (1990) : “A Quick Refresher Course in Macroeconomics”, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 28, December, s. 1645-1660.
  • Muth, John, “Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements,” Econometrica 29 (Temmuz 1961): 315–333.
  • Persson, Torsten and Guido Tabellini (1995). “Designing Institutions for Monetary Stability,” (in) Monetary and Fiscal Policy (Volume 1: Credibility), Ed by Torsten Persson and Guido Tabellini, 2nd Ed., London, The MIT Press, 1995, p.279.
  • Phelps, E.S. (1967) : “Phillips Curves, Expectations of Inflation and Optimal Unemployment Over Time”, Economica, Vol. 34, No : 3, August, s. 254-281.
  • Phelps, E.S. (1972) : Inflation Policy and Unemployment Theory: The Cost-Benefit Approach to Monetary Planning, New York, W.W. Norton.
  • Phillips, A.W. (1958), “The Relation between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom”, 1861 – 1957. Economica New Series. 25 (100), 283 - 299.
  • Samuelson, P. M., Solow, R. M. (1960), “Analytical Aspects of Anti-Inflation Policy”, The American Economic Review, 50 (2), 177-194.
  • Snowdon, B. ve Vane, H.R. (2005) : Modern Macroeconomics, Its Origins, Development and Current State, Edward Elgar.
  • The World Bank Indıcator (2020). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG
  • The World Bank Indıcator (2020). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.UEM.TOTL.NE.ZS

Is a Positively Sloped Philips Curve Possible?

Year 2023, Volume: 3 Issue: 2, 229 - 276, 18.10.2023
https://doi.org/10.59597/akademikaci.1340755

Abstract

Inflation and unemployment, and their relationship with each other, are two broad topics among the wide range of subjects in economics literature. Several hypotheses on the relationship between these two terms were suggested by many economists at different times throughout economics history. The empirical frame of the relationship between inflation and unemployment in economics literature was formed for the first time by A.W.H. Phillips through the study called by his own name, Philips curve in 1958 which was then developed by R. G. Lipsey, P. Samuelson and R. Solow, M. Friedman and E. Phelps and Robert. E. Lucas. M. Friedman stated that Philips curve might be positively sloped at certain times even if it's temporary in the study he presented in the Nobel Economics Conference in 1976. The current study focussed on the weighted averages of 5-year-zone inflation and unemployment data of the selected countries between the years 1995-2019 as practiced by M. Friedman. The findings of the empirical analysis demonstrated that inflation and unemployment synchronized upwards and downward in the selected countries in relevant periods and Philips curve was positively sloped rather than negatively sloped.

References

  • Büyükakın, Tahir (2008). Phillips Eğrisi: Yarım Yüzyıldır Bitmeyen Tartışma. İstanbul Üniversitesi Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi. No:39
  • Friedman, M. (1968) : “The Role of Monetary Policy”, American Eco¬nomic Review, Vol.58, No: 1, March, s. 1-17.
  • Friedman, M. (1976) : “Nobel Lecture : Inflation and Unemployment”, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 85, No : 3, June, s. 451-472.
  • Frisch, H. (1977), ‘Inflation Theory 1963–1975: A Second Generation Survey’, Journal of Economic Literature, December.
  • Frisch, Helmut. (1989). Enflasyon Teorileri. çev. Ertan Oktay ve Aslan Yiğidim. Elif Matbaacılık. Ankara.
  • Humphrey, Thomas M. (1986). From Trade-offs to Policy Ineffectiveness: A History of the Phillips Curve. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Publication. Virginia.
  • Klamer, Arjo (1985). The New Classical Macroeconomics. 2nd Ed. Whitstable Litho Ltd. Great Britain.
  • Leeson, R. (1997a) : “The Trade-off Interpretation of Phillips’s Dynamic Stabilisation Exercise”, Economica, 64, February, s. 155-171.
  • Leeson, R. (1997b) : “The Political Economy of the Inflation–Unemploy¬ment Trade-off ”, History of Political Economy 29:1, Spring, s. 117-156.
  • Lipsey, Richard G. (1960) “The Relation between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1862-1957: A Further Analysis.” Economica. Vol. 27. No. 105. ss. 1-31. Lucas, R.E. Jr. (1972a) : “Expectations and the Neutrality of Money”, Journal of Economic Theory, Vol. 4, No : 2, April, s. 103-124.
  • Lucas, R.E. Jr. (1972b) : “Econometric Testing of the Natural Rate Hypothesis”, in The New Classical Macroeconomics (1992), Vol. I, Ed. by K.D. Hoover, Aldershot, Edward Elgar, s. 123-132.
  • Lucas, R.E. Jr. (1973) : “Some International Evidence on Output-Infla¬tion Tradeoffs”, American Economic Review, Vol. LXIII, No : 3, June, s. 326-334.
  • Mankiw, N.G. (1990) : “A Quick Refresher Course in Macroeconomics”, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 28, December, s. 1645-1660.
  • Muth, John, “Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements,” Econometrica 29 (Temmuz 1961): 315–333.
  • Persson, Torsten and Guido Tabellini (1995). “Designing Institutions for Monetary Stability,” (in) Monetary and Fiscal Policy (Volume 1: Credibility), Ed by Torsten Persson and Guido Tabellini, 2nd Ed., London, The MIT Press, 1995, p.279.
  • Phelps, E.S. (1967) : “Phillips Curves, Expectations of Inflation and Optimal Unemployment Over Time”, Economica, Vol. 34, No : 3, August, s. 254-281.
  • Phelps, E.S. (1972) : Inflation Policy and Unemployment Theory: The Cost-Benefit Approach to Monetary Planning, New York, W.W. Norton.
  • Phillips, A.W. (1958), “The Relation between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom”, 1861 – 1957. Economica New Series. 25 (100), 283 - 299.
  • Samuelson, P. M., Solow, R. M. (1960), “Analytical Aspects of Anti-Inflation Policy”, The American Economic Review, 50 (2), 177-194.
  • Snowdon, B. ve Vane, H.R. (2005) : Modern Macroeconomics, Its Origins, Development and Current State, Edward Elgar.
  • The World Bank Indıcator (2020). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG
  • The World Bank Indıcator (2020). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.UEM.TOTL.NE.ZS
There are 22 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Macroeconomic Theory
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Fırat Cem Doğan 0000-0002-2398-1484

Publication Date October 18, 2023
Submission Date August 10, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2023 Volume: 3 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Doğan, F. C. (2023). Pozitif Eğilimli Bir Philips Eğrisi Mümkün Mü?. Akademik Açı, 3(2), 229-276. https://doi.org/10.59597/akademikaci.1340755